SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — Almost two-and-a-half years after the U.S-backed Afghan government crumbled and the Taliban regime resumed power in Afghanistan, Chinese investors are maneuvering into the country – most notably to reap the benefits of Afghanistan’s abundant and in-demand national resources. Has China emerged as the ultimate winner of the long and devastating war?
Experts are debating the answer.
“There are two sides to this question. On the one hand, there is a certain degree of truth in arguing that Beijing was happy to see the U.S. pack up and leave Afghanistan because, in so doing, the Chinese could rid themselves of any American military presence in the broader Central Asian region,” Benjamin Barton, an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham Malaysia (UNM), told The Cipher Brief. “China does not want a successful democratic model emerging on its doorstep in Central Asia. On the other hand, there is really nothing to be won in Afghanistan for China or anyone else, other than the Taliban and its supporters, of course.”
Barton notes that China is now one of the few third-party countries responsible for overseeing stability in Afghanistan – a country which has known nothing but turmoil in its short-lived existence.
Dennis Wilder, Professor and Senior Fellow at the Initiative for US-China Dialogue on Global Issues at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, also noted that while it is too soon to declare China a clearcut victor, Beijing is “certainly working to take advantage of the U.S.’ precipitate pull out so that it can gain access to the natural resources of Afghanistan, as well as build influence.”
In a noteworthy move to strengthen ties, China became the first country to officially appoint a new ambassador to Afghanistan since the Islamic Emirate retook the helm.
“This is the normal rotation of China’s ambassador to Afghanistan and is intended to continue advancing dialogue and cooperation between China and Afghanistan,” China’s foreign ministry said in a statement. “China’s policy towards Afghanistan is clear and consistent.”
Other countries, including Pakistan and the European Union, have sent senior diplomats to Kabul under the umbrella of “charge d’ affaires.” Other nations have ambassadors in-country, although, with the exception of China, they were all appointed before the Taliban resumed power. While no foreign government has formally recognized the Taliban, Beijing’s latest move could indicate that it may well be the first.
“China is highly transactional in its dealings with developing nations,” said Wilder. “If the Taliban can deliver access for Chinese companies to natural resources, then Beijing is indifferent to the style of autocratic government chosen by its rulers. Beijing has seen an opportunity in both the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq to significantly expand its influence in that part of the world. The U.S. is losing ground to China in many parts of the Arab world, and China is touting its Global Security Initiative as an attractive model for authoritarian regimes.”
Beijing does have a lot to gain. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum estimates that the country holds around 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, and 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium and neodymium, and lodes of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium.
And as much of the world embarks on a “green transition”, lithium is front and center in the manufacturing of low-carbon technologies and batteries. According to Taliban officials, a Chinese firm has already expressed interest in a $10 billion investment in Afghanistan’s bountiful lithium resources.
To put that in perspective, China already retains around sixty percent of known lithium on Earth – a figure that could grow exponentially with Afghan investments, which would only strengthen Beijing’s grip on the minerals necessary to fulfill the Biden administration’s carbon-friendly projects.
It's not just for the President anymore. Are you getting your daily national security briefing? Subscriber+Members have exclusive access to the Open Source Collection Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
State-owned Chinese firms including the Metallurgical Group and Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd, already hold the mining rights to the sweeping Mes Aynak copper mine in Logar province through 2038. The mine is believed to possess one of the largest copper reserves on the planet with an estimated worth of $50 billion. Thus, even while the U.S. taxpayer was funding the frail security apparatus amid the surge of the elongated war, these Chinese companies beat out a host of international proposals to win a three-decade, $3.4 billion lease of the coveted mine in 2008. Yet due to safety and logistical challenges at the time, it failed to make any exploration inroads.
Nevertheless, the monetary appraisal of China’s Aynak lease in today’s climate is worth far more than could have been imagined when the United States first invaded Afghanistan in 2001. Back then, there were no iPhones and no Tesla vehicles. Two decades later, modern society is fueled by high-capacity batteries and high-tech chips critical for smartphones, making Mes Aynak – and much of Afghanistan – an ever-more strategically important parcel of land.
China also stands to gain on the oil front. Earlier this year, the Taliban awarded Chinese firm Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC) an oil and gas exploration license for the Amu Darya basin in Afghanistan’s north. The Chinese National Oil Company is expected to invest an additional $700 million over the next three years in the already-operational Qashqari oil field, which a Taliban official says has a daily production capacity of 350 tons.
Efforts are also believed to be underway for China and Afghanistan to improve the flow of logistics. While the two countries share a jagged 47-mile border at the tail end of the Wakhan Corridor - which links to the mountainous Chalachigu Valley on the Chinese side – there is still no direct land route connecting the two nations. However, last year, Taliban officials sought to secure transit permissions to begin a construction process, which is yet to proceed.
Around the same time, China sent its very first freight load to Afghanistan via a new rail passage through Central Asia, beginning in the beleaguered Xinjiang province, then coursing through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and into Afghanistan’s Hairatan crossing, and then the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif – cutting Pakistan out of the expedition, and cutting the transit time exponentially.
And there are other significant developments where Islamabad is working with China to bring Afghanistan into the fold. Most notably, Afghanistan is set to join China’s controversial Belt and Road Initiative, which would likely include the development of railways and bridges in exchange for natural resources. The construction of a land route via Wakhan would likely fall under a B&R initiative.
“In general, the minister of industry and commerce’s goals are to strengthen economic, trade and transit relations with China,” Taliban spokesperson Akhundzada Abdul Salam Jawad said in a statement to the press.
Through the BRI, according to Wilder, Beijing provides significant assistance to nations needing infrastructure development.
“China can provide funding, manpower, and know-how on a range of projects from railroad building, airports, etc.” he explained.
Barton also stressed that for the Afghan government, joining the BRI goes beyond simply reaping the benefits of investment windfalls in a country “which is badly in need of rebuilding its critical infrastructure after decades of conventional and asymmetric warfare.”
“Participation in the BRI also legitimizes the Taliban internationally by allowing them to participate in major multilateral gatherings in a relatively friendly and welcoming environment – something they are unlikely ever to encounter elsewhere,” he observed. “But having Afghanistan in the BRI makes more sense for Beijing than for Kabul. Afghanistan is, after all, at a critical regional crossroads linking Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia – all regions where important and symbolic BRI projects have been built.”
Barton cautions that it is “one thing for Afghanistan to join the BRI; it is another altogether for projects to be built and successfully operated and maintained.”
In May of this year, the Taliban signed on to the expanded Pakistan-China Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a $62 billion mammoth B&R bellwether project to connect China’s Xinjiang to Pakistan’s critical Arabian Sea Gwadar port VIA, a complex web of railways, roads, power plants and pipelines.
Officials from the three countries referred to the joint venture as a means “to promote connectivity, improve cross-border trading, enhance the economic integration of the three countries and achieve sustainable development.”
Nevertheless, it isn’t one hundred percent smooth sailing between Kabul and Beijing – with the Uighur issue a protracted sticking point.
The CCP continues to express concern that the presence of some three thousand Muslim minority on Afghan soil serves as a terrorist threat to the Chinese mainland and has demanded their expulsion to Beijing. Many of these people have lived in Afghanistan harmoniously since the 1950s, having fled religious persecution from the CCP. So far, the Taliban has responded to the demands by insisting that there are no terrorists on their terrain. However, some Afghans fear that the Uighurs could eventually become pawns for further mining and development agreements.
Even so, Wilder still sees the Afghan dealings as an opportunity for the CCP to resurrect its image with the Muslim world.
“An added benefit for Beijing is that if it maintains good relations with the Taliban, it is unlikely to attempt to interfere in China’s harsh treatment of its Uighur Muslim minority,” he said.
Barton concurred saying that by “throwing its weight behind the Taliban, China is seeking to consolidate its relatively neutral or positive image in the ‘Muslim World’ as part of a bid to simultaneously increase its influence in the wider Middle East but also as a pre-emptive move to assuage possible criticism from countries comprising this part of the world concerning its treatment of the Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang Province.”
“Getting the Taliban’s support, therefore, reduces the risk that more governments of Muslim states might openly speak out about the treatment of the Uyghur minority,” he said.
And then there is Huawei. A tentative verbal agreement reached between the Taliban and China in August, will likely see the implementation of facial-recognition cameras across every province of Afghanisan under the auspices of a ‘security tool’ to hunt down bad actors. During the last Taliban rule in the 1990s, such technology was not available.
And in May, the Islamic Emirate declared the revival of direct flights between Afghanistan and China after a three-year hiatus, with a spokesperson insisting the move would fundamentally tighten bilateral ties.
Meanwhile, most of the international community has sidelined the Taliban regime, in large part due to its abysmal human rights record and refusal to allow girls and women to attend school, work, and function freely in society. According to some economic forecasts, the prohibition on education will lead to a loss of 1 billion USD, or five percent of Afghanistan’s GDP, in the short-term and in the long-term, promises a devastating “brain drain.”
But even as China appears ready to reap the financial rewards, Washington continues to give money amid pressure to ease the humanitarian crisis – with more than a billion in aid sent in the first year of the Taliban rule. Despite such generosity, it is Beijing which has emerged in a prime position to take advantage of any monies to be made.
“I believe that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was ill-considered,” Wilder asserted. “The United States poured resources into that nation for 20 years only to walk away from a people who believed in our commitment to their fledgling democracy.”
Nonetheless, Barton cautioned that cozying up to the Taliban will prove a far from tranquil endeavor for China in the long run.
“Without the U.S. intervention in the country, Afghanistan becomes a free-for-all for terrorist groups, some of whom may have eyes on China,” he added. “Furthermore, at the end of the day and as history has shown, Afghans determine what happens in Afghanistan – whether we agree or not with the political and societal fate the country is facing, ultimately, it will be for Afghans to decide.”
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
