Improving Our Model

By Michael Shurkin

Michael Shurkin is a senior political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He previously worked in the Intelligence Community, where he served as a political analyst with a focus on West Africa and Afghanistan.

Nobody likes comparisons with the Vietnam War, but in the case of United States security assistance, the comparison is worth considering. The United States often approaches security assistance the same way it did in Vietnam, with the same results.  

Moreover, because the United States has been using the same approach, it has measured its efforts according to the same metrics, resulting in the same false assessments: Security assistance in Vietnam by 1973 was understood to be a success, with “Vietnamization” progressing so well that Washington felt free to withdraw U.S. ground forces.

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