On October 31, 2015, an international charter flight departing from Sharm el-Sheikh International Airport disintegrated mid-flight en route to St. Petersburg, Russia, killing all 224 passengers onboard. Two weeks later, a series of coordinated attacks led by a Brussels-based terrorist cell struck Paris, resulting in the death of over 130 people. This month, a female shooter who arrived to the United States on a fiancé visa in 2014, along with her husband, killed 14 people in San Bernardino, California. It is evident that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has reached beyond its own borders, claiming responsibility for attacks, inspiring others, and striving to continuously expand its influence and network.
The recent terrorist attacks demonstrate that the threat to aviation security is real—and the threat is not just isolated to aircraft. Today, we are also concerned that terrorists can leverage commercial aviation to travel and coordinate attacks. The persistent threat of terrorism is driving the need for security forces around the world to monitor the movement of wanted individuals and potential terrorists. Global travel awareness will continue to grow as one of the preeminent tools in the fight against terror as we confront an increasingly agile adversary.
The threat from terrorism is not isolated to one location. ISIS has leveraged its ideology to inspire and radicalize individuals around the world to support its goal of establishing a caliphate. Approximately 12 thousand to 15 thousand foreign fighters have traveled to Syria and Iraq as of September 2014, and about 12-20 percent of these individuals come from Western countries. The flow of foreign fighters to and from the Levant has allowed ISIS to create a global network of support—meaning that we face a more widespread and agile enemy than ever before.
ISIS’ global reach is particularly concerning when we think of the threat to aviation from insider threats. It is commonly believed that an ISIS affiliated group, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, leveraged an insider to smuggle a bomb onto Metrojet Flight 9268 and take down the plane. This attack demonstrates how one individual, with legitimate access to high-risk areas at airports, can be inspired and moved to action.
In the past, terrorists have also leveraged lax screening requirements and fake or stolen passports to move between countries and execute attacks. In 2010, al-Qaeda aimed to exploit gaps in screening requirements for small cargo packages by placing bombs, disguised as toner cartridges, onboard a cargo aircraft destined for the United States. While steps have been made to close this gap, the Office of the Inspector General and an independent study released by the Coalition of Services Industries found that the same gap that existed in 2010 continues today, and that as many as 179 million packages per year may enter the United States from foreign posts via commercial cargo and passenger aircraft without being screened.
A recent intelligence report warns that ISIS may have access to official Syrian passport printing machines and blank passport books. Considering that approximately 300 thousand people arrive in the United States each day by air, terrorists’ use of false documentation or an individual with insider access could help facilitate an attack against the U.S. homeland. It should be noted that individuals attempting to use those documents are required to obtain a non-immigrant visa, which does require an interview, as well as biographic and biometrics checks performed overseas at a U.S. Embassy or Consulate.
While the threat to aviation security is real, the United States has enhanced security by adopting a risk-based strategy to detect and interdict travelers posing threats. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) collects and analyzes data—such as data from the Advanced Passenger Information System and the Passenger Name Record—on all individuals prior to their boarding a flight. This also allows CBP to assess and identify which passengers require advance screening and, if necessary, should be prevented from boarding an aircraft. However, while the use of pre-departure data can play an effective role in stopping the travel of a known or wanted individual, the challenge is identifying the lone high-risk person unknown to law enforcement or the intelligence community.
We can only realize the full benefit of advance passenger screening data—and begin to address information gaps—if we collaborate with international partners and the private sector to collect and exchange information. The coordination of law enforcement activities between sovereign states presents unique challenges, especially as each country tries to balance the security of its nation with the privacy of its citizens. However, we must work through these challenges to negotiate effective agreements between the United States and its partners abroad in order to maximize the potential of leveraging these intelligence relationships. Extending our borders to collaborate with international partners at the point of origin will allow the United States to identify and respond to threats abroad, making arrival in the United States the last line of defense, rather than the first.
Moving forward, the United States must continue to enhance its intelligence driven approach used in aviation security by extending our borders and implementing multi-phased security checks. Today, the threat from terrorism is more widespread and agile than ever before, but there are always more opportunities to enhance the coordination of timely and actionable intelligence. By working together, the United States, international partners, and the private sector can raise global travel awareness to identify and mitigate risk, making aviation security safer than ever before.
Jayson Ahern is a Principal at The Chertoff Group and Head of the Firm’s Security Services practice area, where he advises clients on a broad range of services, including homeland and border security management, global commerce and supply chain security, critical infrastructure protection, risk management, and strategic planning and implementation.
