The leader of one of the deadliest factions within the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), Omar Mansoor, was killed in an airstrike in Afghanistan on Wednesday, U.S. officials and the Pakistani military announced. Mansoor was one of Pakistan’s most wanted and brutal militants and was the mastermind behind the 2014 attack on a Pakistani military school that left more than 140 dead. He also claimed responsibility for January’s attack on Bacha Khan University in northwestern Pakistan, which resulted in the deaths of 21 people.
Kevin Hulbert, Cipher Brief expert and former CIA Chief of Station, does not expect Mansoor’s death to result in a major setback for the TTP. While Wednesday’s airstrike “demonstrates the United States’ resolve in targeting Taliban leaders, it will likely have a minimal impact on the TTP’s operational capacity,” he explains.
Nonetheless, Wednesday’s airstrike may signify increased cooperation between the U.S. and Pakistan. Relations between the two have been quite strained since the U.S. carried out a drone strike against Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour in May. Mansoor’s death may ultimately bring the two countries closer.
“First, when the United States kills TTP commanders, it highlights the ways in which the U.S. and Pakistan are aligned in their fight against certain terrorist groups,” explains Daniel Markey, Cipher Brief expert and a leading scholar on Pakistan. “No one should confuse this with total alignment of interests, much less priorities, but it should not be completely ignored either. We have an interest in Pakistan's stability, an interest in seeing it tackle the TPP successfully, and despite our deep frustration with Pakistan over other issues, we shouldn't lose sight of that.”
Second, Mansoor’s removal may lead to the reopening of several educational institutions in Pakistan that have been shut down. “Many universities throughout Punjab were placed on indefinite ‘holiday’ due to security concerns,” says Markey. “Given the connections between the TTP's Omar Mansoor and school attacks, perhaps this will be interpreted as an especially welcome move by Pakistanis who were clearly worried about attacks on soft targets, and schools in particular.”
In addition, Hulbert sees the need for a continued, strong military stance toward Taliban leaders. “Consistent pressure on targeting the Taliban leadership has made the organization less capable, less effective, less able to train and launch attacks against the west,” he says.
