Venezuela is facing the most serious political and economic crisis of any country in Latin America. The situation is extremely volatile. Riots have intensified over the last months, and the worst of it is likely yet to come. According to Datanálisis, President Nicolás Maduro’s approval rating has plummeted to 26.8 percent as of March of this year, and some 68.9 percent of Venezuelans polled said Maduro should be removed via a recall referendum. Public frustration comes as a result of shortages of basic goods and foods, scarcity of water, rolling power outages, skyrocketing inflation, a worrisome health care crisis, and increasing violence. Venezuela’s crisis has gone beyond politics; it is a humanitarian concern.
Case in point, last month the New York Times published a story documenting Venezuela’s failing hospitals. An accompanying photo depicted two men laying on blood-stained hospital beds in the emergency room, waiting for a scan from equipment the hospital did not have. The paper reported that newborns are dying daily, because maternity incubators are broken or shut down by constant blackouts. Water, an essential commodity, is getting scarcer as the hottest days of the month approach. Months can go by without running water in some households, prompting people to collect it in buckets. This creates the ideal environment for the aedes aegypti mosquito responsible for the spread of Zika, chikungunya, dengue, and other diseases, a current concern of many Latin American countries. There is no information on how many people in Venezuela have been infected. Those who are will have to deal with the fact that there is no equipment to confront this health crisis in this once relatively wealthy oil rich country.
Increasing violence is also of grave concern. In 2015, the Public Ministry in Venezuela registered a total of 17,778 homicides. The Venezuelan Violence Observatory, on the other hand, reported a total of 27,875 homicides last year, categorizing it as the most violent country in the Americas. From January – March 2016, the Ministry reported 4,696 homicides, according to the news agency AFP. Extrajudicial killings are not included in this year’s homicide count, yet 74 cases of lynching that allegedly left 37 deceased and several injured are currently being investigated. People are starting to take the law into their own hands, untrusting of state security forces. The increase in violence has accompanied the general deterioration of living standards for the Venezuelan population.
The opposition is trying to resolve the crisis by terminating Maduro’s term in office with a recall referendum and then holding new elections. Support for the referendum has reached 1.85 million signatures, more than needed to start the process on this first petition. To trigger the referendum, four million voters have to sign a second petition. If the referendum is authorized by the National Electoral Council (CNE) this year and gets 7.6 million votes, Maduro must leave office, and a new election will be called. If it is postponed until after January 10, 2017, and President Maduro is recalled, the vacancy will fall to Vice-President Aristóbulo Isturiz. To be sure, the current government is doing all it can to delay any referendum.
With a legacy of laws that favor the executive branch and a Supreme Court headed by a presidential ally, the legislature – controlled by the opposition in the last elections – continues to be undermined. The process toward a referendum remains long and convoluted, and time is running out to hold a referendum vote and force Maduro to leave office.
Colombia, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay have come forward to support the referendum and have joined various multilateral efforts and world leaders to voice their support for effective political dialogue. While some of Venezuela’s neighbors are deeply concerned about the country and are urging it to engage in dialogue, some think that these statements are insufficient to take action. Under this premise, the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, recently invoked Article 20 of the Inter-American Democratic Charter, to request a session of the Permanent Council between June 10 and 20, in order to discuss the situation and make proposals. The motion aims to allow the Permanent Council to convene and take whatever decisions it considers appropriate to restore democratic institutions in Venezuela, including a possible suspension of Venezuela from the OAS, which needs a two-thirds majority vote to be enacted. If these efforts prove unsuccessful, the Permanent Council can invoke a special session of the General Assembly. It is important to note that the 46th session of the General Assembly is scheduled for June 13 – 15, so timing is relevant.
What cannot be overlooked is that Venezuela has indeed turned more authoritarian since Maduro’s election in 2013. This became more evident after December 2015, when the opposition took over the National Assembly. One of the last acts of the lame duck pro-Maduro legislature was to grant him emergency powers to rule by decree. Just recently, Maduro said that the National Assembly is disconnected from national interests and “it will only be a matter of time before it disappears.” He also assigned 12 seats in the Supreme Court to his supporters, leaving little room for checks and balances. Maduro’s refusal to accept the demand for a recall referendum demonstrates that votes don’t really matter anymore, which is important, considering the regime has been arguing that its legitimacy rests with the free and fair elections it won.
Venezuela’s problems go well beyond the president. Removing him from power will not magically solve the country’s problems. What Venezuela needs is a complete overhaul of its political institutions. Any effort to overcome this crisis will require the assistance of multilateral institutions and foreign partners. After years of economic mismanagement and hostility toward private business, the recovery will be an uphill battle. What is most worrisome is the heightened confrontation between the government and protesters, pervasive insecurity, and the scarcity of medicine and food. While disagreements between the government and the opposition continue, the real losers in this crisis are the Venezuelan people.
