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How Valuable are the Indicators?

A few years ago, my colleagues and I published an article on forecasting instability in nations around the world.  Two things stood out in that paper.  First, the main determinant of instability was the type of regime.  States with partial democracies, especially ones that exhibited marked factionalism among political groups, were the most likely to experience civil war or descent into authoritarianism.  By contrast, both full democracies and fully autocratic regimes tended to be rather stable. 

 Second, surprisingly few other factors mattered.  We identified infant mortality (which proxies both income and state effectiveness); state discrimination against particular groups; and spill-overs from severe regional instability as the only factors that determined instability across the board.

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