How China Could Truly Rein in North Korea

By Derek Grossman

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. He formerly served at the Defense Intelligence Agency as the daily intelligence briefer to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs at the Pentagon. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.

In a recent interview with reporters in Beijing, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Susan Thornton noted that the Chinese were finally exerting greater pressure on North Korea. China’s “shift in emphasis,” in her words, entails stepped-up inspections and policing at the border as well as “a number of other things on companies,” which the Wall Street Journal later revealed entails added pressure on Beijing to sanction 10 Chinese companies and individuals that trade with North Korea. Thornton also highlighted that Washington and Beijing were discussing how to react more rapidly via the United Nations to impose sanctions on Pyongyang the next time it conducts a provocative missile or nuclear test.

As I have previously argued in The Cipher Brief, China might be willing to make changes on the margins of its relationship with North Korea, but fundamental changes to its strategy are highly unlikely because this would threaten the stability of Kim Jong-un’s regime and potentially eliminate the North as a buffer state. That strategic calculus should temper our expectations of Trump Administration policy. Indeed, China’s perpetual security concern has manifested itself in recent months with Beijing’s proposal that the U.S. and South Korea “freeze” routine joint exercises in exchange for Pyongyang suspending its missile and nuclear programs. The last thing Beijing wants is a conflict that would end Kim’s regime and unleash new power dynamics at its doorstep. 

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