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Haftar Holds Upper Hand In Libya Power Struggle

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Posted: August 31st, 2017

By Geoff Porter

Dr. Geoff D. Porter is the founder and president of North Africa Risk Consulting, a political and security risk consulting firm specializing in the extractive industries in North Africa. In addition, Dr. Porter is an assistant professor at the Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy at West Point.

Imagine a multi-pronged, low intensity conflict. It’s been dragging on for five or so years. Sometimes this faction gains ground. Sometimes that. Or maybe it’s a third or fourth group. And then imagine a truce between two of the conflict’s numerous groups. Progress, you think. A first step toward ultimately reconciling all the other groups. Peace will surely break out.

But it turns out that the truce’s two groups aren’t actually fighting one another. And one party to the ceasefire isn’t really a group at all – it’s more of an idea with a figurehead. In fact, it doesn’t even really have arms to cease firing. The truce’s other party only acquiesced to the agreement because its terms were vague enough not to impede it from doing anything it wants. What a farce, you think.

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