Professor Ming Sing of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology discussed with The Cipher Brief Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement and its impact on the former British colony’s relationship with Mainland China. Sing determines the success of Beijing’s economic reforms will play a crucial role in its relationship with Hong Kong.
The Cipher Brief: Could you give our readers a brief background on the Hong Kong protests and the Umbrella Movement? What makes this movement different than other protests in Hong Kong?
Ming Sing: In late 2014, a prolonged and epochal pro-democracy Umbrella Movement erupted in Hong Kong. The movement was distinguished not only by its long duration of 79 days and large-scale participation, but also by a more radical turn in the strategy of Hong Kong’s democracy movement. They occupied roads, confronted police and in some cases, broke the law. The movement has become the largest civil disobedience in Hong Kong’s history, and created a historic watershed with its large-scale and direct, public challenge to the Chinese government in its people’s pursuit of democracy. The failure of the movement to extract concessions from Beijing on Hong Kong’s democratization will further worsen the Sino-Hong Kong relationship.
TCB: Who comprises the movement?
MS: The movement has been mainly led by university student leaders. Those who joined the movement included both students and non-students, though the younger generation and more educated citizens are far more supportive of the campaign than the older and less educated citizens. The pro-democracy parties have been largely marginalized, partly owing to the inadequate trust of the younger generation towards those parties.
TCB: How has Hong Kong changed in the past year, particularly in terms of its relationship with Mainland China?
MS: The relationship between the people of Hong Kong and the Chinese government has gone from bad to worse. The refusal of Beijing to fulfill its promise of allowing Hong Kong to fully democratize, the former’s stress on political control over Hong Kong, the perceived increase of police abuse of power, the lack of any visible improvement in income inequality, crony-capitalism, and social mobility, alongside the continued worsening of press freedom and academic freedom, have all dampened Hong Kongers’ trust of the Beijing government. Trust has recently hit an all time low.
TCB: What role have westerners in Hong Kong played in the protests? Have westerners been affected differently than Hong Kong natives?
MS: Most westerners were very inactive in the Umbrella Movement. As most westerners here are well-paid professionals, they have been subject to less influence than many locals who may be more politically active or anti-government.
TCB: What’s the outlook for Hong Kong? What do the people of Hong Kong see as their potential future?
MS: In the short-run, Beijing will tighten its political control over Hong Kong, as long as Xi Jinping is in power. In the medium and long run, whether or not China’s economic reforms succeed will predominantly shape Hong Kong’s future. If they succeed, the current freedoms, high degree of autonomy, and rule-of-law will be further eroded, turning Hong Kong into just another mainland-like city. If China’s economic reforms fail, it will trigger the ascent to power of political reformers in the mainland, and Hong Kong may be allowed to experiment with democratization and maintain its international character.
The people in Hong Kong are very worried about not only the prospect of democracy, but also about the further erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms, rule-of-law and high degree of autonomy. They have little confidence that Beijing will live up to its promise of maintaining those elements as enshrined in Hong Kong’s mini-constitution.
