Fragile States Index Reveals Grievance in Unexpected Places

Posted: May 14th, 2017

By J.J. Messner

J.J. Messner became the Executive Director of The Fund for Peace in October 2014 after having been the Director of FFP's Sustainable Development & Security program for nearly four years. He has also co-directed FFP's Fragile States Index and coordinated the country data and trends analysis program as well as FFP's media and communications outreach. Prior to joining The Fund for Peace, from 2006 to 2010, J.J. was Director of the International Stability Operations Association (formerly the International Peace Operations Association), a non-profit organization focused on private sector support for operations in conflict and post-conflict environments. He was also the founder and Editor-in-Chief for four years of the Journal of International Peace Operations. J.J. also has experience in the fields of corporate antitrust law and educational non-profits. Originally from Adelaide, Australia, J.J. received his Bachelors degree in Politics and International Studies from the University of Adelaide, Australia and a Masters of Science (Peace Operations) from George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia. His academic work has also included research abroad in Costa Rica, India, Mexico and Timor-Leste as well as a study abroad at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.

What is the most stable country in the world? Which is the most fragile? What determines those qualities? In 2017, South Sudan was ranked the most fragile country by The Fund for Peace, an organization that publishes the Fragile States Index (FSI) every year. Finland was judged the most stable. Measured on 12 indicators based on social, economic and political factors, the Index ranks 178 countries from the most fragile to the least over the past year. It aims to identify potential risk of social and political turmoil and conflict. But what do those numbers mean? And do they really matter? This year, The Cipher Brief is a media partner with the FSI, so Executive Producer Leone Lakhani sat down with JJ Messner, Executive Director of The Fund for Peace, to break down the numbers and explain why the U.S. and UK stuck out in this year’s index.

The Cipher Brief: When you look at the top ten, there’s little difference from last year. Number 1 is South Sudan. Then you have the likes of Somalia, Yemen, Syria, which are not surprising given the volatility they’ve experienced in the last few years. But how much emphasis should we be putting on those rankings? Should we really be looking at those numbers?

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