There are heightened security concerns in France, as the Euro 2016 football tournament begins today at multiple sites throughout the country. France is particularly on edge in light of the devastating coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris last November that left 130 dead and hundreds injured.
In an interview with The Cipher Brief, Mitch Silber, former Director of Analysis for the NYPD, said “France is both the top European target and the most vulnerable European country to terror attacks,” and consequently, “France extended its ‘state of emergency’ so that it would cover the Euro 2016 tournament.” A successfully executed attack could put the “future of the EU as a borderless entity” at stake especially with the upcoming vote in Britain on whether to leave the EU, he says.
The Cipher Brief: Is Euro 2016 an attractive target for terrorists? If so, why?
Mitch Silber: The terrorism risk posed by the UEFA Euro Soccer tournament is probably the most significant surrounding any major sports event in recent history.
The main reason this is the case is that France is hosting the tournament. France is both the top European target and the most vulnerable European country to terror attacks potentially launched by the Islamic State (ISIS) and its jihadist acolytes. In fact, the head of the French domestic intelligence agency (Direction Generale de la Securite Interieure-DGSI), Patrick Calvar, recently noted that “France is the most threatened country.”
Also, France was specifically identified as a top target by the chief spokesman/chief of external operations for ISIS, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani in September of 2014. In spite of his warnings, France has seen two deadly terrorist attacks over the past two years that collectively killed 147 people. As a result, French President Francois Hollande has declared the country “at war” with the Islamic State and continues to launch airstrikes against the group, providing additional rationale for jihadist attacks. Also, sports events have been the target of the Islamic State as recent as last November, when two of the Islamic State-directed suicide bombers detonated their explosive vests outside the Stade de France during a soccer match between France and Germany.
However, it would be a mistake to believe that only ISIS would find Euro 2016 as an appealing target. Given that al Qaeda groups have not staged a spectacular attack in some time, as well as their rivalry with the Islamic State, affiliates from Yemen (AQAP), Syria (Al Nusra) and North Africa (AQIM) are all likely to view this tournament and France as an appealing target.
Further, France and this tournament are attractive targets because of the media exposure it will garner. Estimates indicate that more than 150 million viewers throughout Europe and potentially billions worldwide will watch the games on television.
In terms of vulnerability, more French citizens have travelled to the Syria/Iraq warzone than any other European country, and the DGSI has noted that they are monitoring as many as 2000 French nationals and residents because of potential terrorist links. Keeping track of this many subjects is a daunting task, even for a national intelligence organization.
Moreover, the dispersed nature and length of this tournament makes it very difficult to protect and defend. Unlike the 2012 London Olympics, where events were spread though out the greater London area over two weeks, this tournament has ten different venues all around France, which will host fifty-one matches. The tournament will last for approximately a month, forcing French authorities to maintain a high state of vigilance throughout the country for a sustained period of time.
TCB: What has France done to increase security for Euro 2016 in light of the recent terrorist attacks across Europe?
MS: In May, France extended its “state of emergency,” which dates back to the November 2015 Paris attacks, so that it would cover the Euro 2016 tournament. This provides French authorities with a range of augmented powers, including the ability to place individuals who are believed to be a security threat under house arrest. Clearly the French intelligence and police are mobilizing for this month long event. Among actions they are likely to conduct to increase security are: increased surveillance efforts on the highest risk subjects; instituted travel restrictions in areas around event sites; the deployment of human intelligence sources; increased signals intelligence monitoring; and reaching out to other EU countries in order to maximize intelligence sharing.
In a sense, France is already fighting a two-front war against ISIS. While French Mirage and RAF Typhoon fighter jets bomb Raqqa and other Islamic State controlled areas in Syria and Iraq, French police and intelligence work the apartment blocks of the banlieues outside Paris, Marseille and other cities to try to identify which of the 250 Frenchmen (out of 1700) who went to fight in Syria and Iraq have returned to France as terrorist operatives with spectacular attacks as their plan.
TCB: Have there been security issues when France has previously hosted the tournament?
MS: France has hosted the event twice before, and it does not appear that security was an issue.
TCB: Has there been increased intelligence sharing between European countries leading up to Euro 2016?
MS: It is unclear if intelligence sharing within the EU has improved since the March attacks in Belgium. While an attack by French jihadists, inspired or directed by the Islamic State or al Qaeda, are a top concern, the threat is actually Europe-wide. As we now understand, the March 2016 attacks in Belgium were not the original target of those terrorists – France was. With approximately 9,000 Europeans who have traveled and potentially trained with jihadist groups, the threat could likely emanate from another EU country. While the numbers for France are the most significant, the most recent estimates identify 750 Germans and 750 UK citizens, as well as 470 Belgian citizens, who went abroad to fight on behalf of ISIS or a related group. More importantly is the blowback from these fighters – meaning the 200 Germans, 350 Brits, and 180 Belgians who have returned to their European homes with the potential for violence as trained operatives at the Euro 2016 tournament. Intelligence sharing among EU countries will be vital to preventing an attack that targets France but originates outside its borders.
TCB: What could be the fallout if a terrorist attacks occurs during Euro 2016?
MS: An attack at the event is a dagger in the heart of the Brexit vote on June 23. The two spectacular attacks in Paris, as well as the most recent attack in Brussels, have already heightened security fears in the UK about the risks of remaining in the EU. Regardless of whether this is accurate, given that the UK still institutes some border controls, the perception of increased vulnerability could prove decisive in the upcoming vote.
However, the stakes are even bigger than the Brexit issue and could trigger a real EU crisis. If terrorists take advantage of borderless travel and the ease with which they can move among the 26 Schengen countries to launch a deadly attack at Euro 2016, then what might have been a discussion that began about terrorism would now be about sovereignty and trigger other countries to re-consider their participation in an open borders system. Even now, certain members, like Austria, have put the Schengen system in partial suspension, while some have called for a two-year suspension on open borders.
So to some degree, the future of the EU as a borderless entity is riding on the security of the Euro 2016 event.
