Hungary’s Viktor Orban is creating an illiberal democracy in central Europe. This is souring relations with the European Union (EU) and the current U.S. administration, while pulling Hungary back into the orbit of its eastern neighbor – 60 years after a massive uprising against Soviet influence.
Europe’s migration crisis has become Prime Minister Orban’s raison d’état. Last Friday, Orban said he would “sue” the European Commission if it continues to pursue mandatory migrant resettlement quotas for EU states. Orban has also said he will make constitutional amendments to prevent any migrant resettlement without consent of the Hungarian parliament.
This comes after an overwhelming majority – 98 percent – voted against mandatory EU migrant quotas in Hungary’s October 2nd referendum. However, the referendum is null and void, since less than 50 percent of Hungarians took part. Still, Orban is using this result to push forward his anti-migration agenda, ostensibly in the name of the Hungarian people.
“The Orban government’s attempts to seize upon such a flawed vote demonstrate deeper concerns about governance and rule of law in Hungary,” remarks Executive Director of the Fund for Peace and Cipher Brief expert J. J. Messner.
Orban enacted a wave of constitutional amendments that critics of the regime argue suppress civil liberties and concentrate power in the hands of the executive. However, the government claims the changes express the will of the people – who, after all, chose to put Orban and his Fidesz party in power.
The Hungarian parliament – with a two-thirds majority conservative coalition between Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) – approved the set of controversial amendments in March 2013.
These amendments include provisions that limit the power of the Constitutional Court, change electoral law (some say in order to give Fidesz an advantage), restrict election campaigning to only state-controlled media, and give preference to “traditional” family relationships.
European authorities and the United States pushed back. The amendments “raise concerns with respect to the principle of the rule of law, EU law and Council of Europe standards,” commented then-European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
The Council of Europe’s Venice Commission wrote in a statement, “This wide use of cardinal laws to cement the economic, social, fiscal, family, educational etc. policies of the current two-thirds majority, is a serious threat to democracy.”
On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. Department of State said the changes “could threaten the principles of institutional independence and checks and balances that are the hallmark of democratic governance.”
Yet Orban and his Fidesz party maintain power via a relatively legitimate process of election by the people. In Hungary’s 2014 parliamentary elections – after parliament passed the contentious constitutional amendments – the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition finished with 44.5 percent of the vote. That’s an 8.2 percent drop from 2010, but still represented a majority.
The “problem” in Hungary is not a democratic deficit per se, but rather the denunciation of liberal values from both the government and the people.
A recent survey by independent polling firm Závecz Research finds support for Fidesz has risen by four percent since September and six percent since August, to 49 percent. The survey was conducted after the migration referendum and after Hungary’s largest opposition newspaper Népszabadság shut down last month.
The far-right Movement for a Better Hungary, commonly known as Jobbick, received 20.54 percent of the vote in the 2014 elections, a nearly four percent gain compared to 2010. Jobbik is known for its anti-Roma and anti-Jews rhetoric, and its banned paramilitary group the Hungarian Guard. Almost one million Hungarians voted for the group in 2014.
Hungary’s illiberal shift sends a dismal signal for future cooperation with the EU and the U.S. During a retreat of ethnic Hungarian leaders, Orban explicitly outlined his desire to build an “illiberal new state based on national foundations,” citing Russia as a “successful” example.
Former Hungarian Ambassador to the U.S. (2002-2007) András Simonyi tells The Cipher Brief, “The scary part is this really looks like the ‘Russian democracy,’ which is not a democracy.”
Moreover, Hungary depends on Russia for nearly 90 percent of its crude oil and 80 percent of its natural gas, according to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report. Two years ago, the country awarded Russia’s state-owned Rosatom a contract to build two new nuclear reactors, with a $10.7 billion Russian loan to help finance the project.
Hungary’s dependence on Russia for energy and a shift in values toward a Russian-style of illiberal democracy – on both a governmental and societal level, albeit to varying degrees – threaten to undermine the EU and relations with the current U.S. administration.
“In the long-run, this will hurt the relationship [between Hungary and the U.S.],” says Simonyi.
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
