Probably the only certain aspect of the China-Taiwan relationship is its uncertainty, which has never been more apparent than in the upcoming Taiwanese presidential and legislative elections. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose foundational platform advocates the independence of Taiwan from mainland China, is expected to win the presidency. And some polls even predict a DPP takeover of the Legislative Yuan, marking the first time in history the DPP controls the legislature. With so many leaders supporting independence from the mainland—just 110 miles away—leaders around the world will be anxiously watching this historic election with Beijing in their periphery.
Current President Ma Ying-jeou, a member of the Kuomintang (KMT) Party, has made major improvements in relations between Taiwan and the mainland—even meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. Under the “One China” principle agreed to in the 1992 Consensus, both mainland China and Taiwan acknowledge belonging to the same China, but they also agreed to interpret the meaning of one China according to their own individual definition. The DPP has been outwardly critical of this principle, arguing the 1992 agreement was no “consensus” at all.
In his eight years as president, public dissatisfaction with President Ma’s efforts to strengthen ties with the mainland has gradually surfaced. In 2014, Taiwanese students protested the passing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement by the ruling KMT. They saw the agreement as potentially making Taiwan more susceptible to pressures from Beijing. What came to be known as the ‘Sunflower Movement’ was the largest student-led protest in Taiwan’s history, and an early example of the political changing tide occurring on the island.
While the DPP is without a doubt less friendly towards China, the opposition party has emerged as a more moderate, alternative to the KMT—one that focuses on domestic issues rather than concentrating constant attention across the Taiwan Strait. The economic downturn in Taiwan has placed serious pressure on the ruling KMT government.
The United States formally recognized Beijing as the ruling center of China in 1979 and in doing so severed formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. When relations with the PRC were normalized, however, the U.S. Congress immediately passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which established unofficial relations with Taiwan and requires the United States to come to the aid of Taiwan should it be attacked by the mainland.
According to the U.S. State Department, the United States and Taiwan now enjoy a “robust unofficial relationship” characterized by the continued U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and most recently, the Obama Administration’s sale of $1.83 billion in December 2014. This diplomatic equivalent of “friends with benefits” allows the U.S. to interact with both parts of the “one China” without provoking a serious reaction from Beijing.
Though Saturday’s election will occur in Taiwan, all eyes will be on Beijing once a victor is named. Should Tsai Ying Wen, the DPP’s candidate, be elected as expected, Beijing will either find a way to accommodate the new leader across the strait, or the leadership in the mainland could potentially begin taking limited steps to pressure Taipei. Should Tsai make serious moves toward appeasing pro-independence radicals within the DPP, she would likely face an economic, diplomatic, and military reaction from Beijing. Of concern to the international community is how far unpredictable Chinese President Xi will go in responding to any steps towards independence a Tsai government might take.
Tsai has gone out of her way to demonstrate to China and the U.S. that she intends to maintain the status quo with regards to Taiwan’s relationship with the mainland, but despite her assurances, the potential for conflict remains. President Xi may face internal pressures to ensure the more forceful promotion of “One China,” and DPP radicals will likely demand greater moves towards Taiwanese independence. The Taiwan-China relationship will likely remain a complex security dynamic that demands close monitoring by the United States.
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
