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Drivers of Future Supply

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Posted: September 29th, 2015

By Deborah Gordon

Deborah Gordon is director and senior associate in the Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trained originally as a chemical engineer and with a Masters degree in Public Policy, Gordon began her career with Chevron, taught at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and has held senior positions in environmental organizations.

Global oil markets are in flux.  Significant price swings—from triple digits to double digits, back and forth, over the past decade—are an indication of a systemic imbalance.  In a sector with few ready substitutes, this introduces new risks and heightens security concerns, with ramifications worldwide for the oil industry, oil exporting nations, new energy finance actors, manufacturers, policymakers, and the public.

Three pillars underpin the machinations in tomorrow’s global oil markets: economics, geopolitics, and the environment.  Oil supplies will have a hard time reconciling when any of these is out of kilter.  In a global marketplace that trades on large volumes and operates amid significant opacity, accurately predicting global oil supply trends is dicey business.

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