Doubts about the Durability of the Latest Syrian Ceasefire

Posted: December 30th, 2016

By Robert Richer

Robert Richer served as a former Associate Deputy Director for Operations at the CIA. He retired in 2005 and before his retirement he also served as Chief of the Near East and South Asia Division, responsible for Clandestine Service Operations throughout the Middle East and South Asia. Mr. Richer currently consults on Middle East and national security issues and is a senior partner with International Advisory Partners.

The Cipher Brief spoke with Network Member Rob Richer, former Associate Deputy Director for Operations at the CIA, about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a ceasefire in Syria that went into effect on Thursday night. Richer explained that just as previous ceasefire agreements fell apart, it is unlikely that this ceasefire will hold. However, according to Richer, there may be a push inside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle to strike a peace agreement in the coming weeks due to what they perceive as the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under the incoming Trump Administration.

The Cipher Brief: What is the likelihood that the ceasefire holds?

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