The Cipher Brief spoke with Network Member Rob Richer, former Associate Deputy Director for Operations at the CIA, about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a ceasefire in Syria that went into effect on Thursday night. Richer explained that just as previous ceasefire agreements fell apart, it is unlikely that this ceasefire will hold. However, according to Richer, there may be a push inside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle to strike a peace agreement in the coming weeks due to what they perceive as the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under the incoming Trump Administration.
The Cipher Brief: What is the likelihood that the ceasefire holds?
Rob Richer: The ceasefire will not hold if previous experience with the ceasefire is any indication. At best, it will allow the Russian forces to enjoy a brief New Year's Eve respite. The agreement allows Russian and Syrian forces to continue to attack “terrorist” forces during the ceasefire. The Russians and Syrians have shown a willingness to define “terrorists” pretty broadly, to include most opposition elements.
TCB: How could the ceasefire impact the campaign against ISIS’ capital in Raqqa?
RR: The Raqqa campaign is moving slower than expected. The Kurds will continue to hold their ground and engage ISIS elements on their approach to Raqqa, and U.S.-led coalition forces will continue to hit targets of opportunity in Raqqa or in the pipeline between Raqqa and Mosul. For the coalition, it will be business as usual with the exception of action by coalition Free Syrian Army forces, which have been mostly inactive anyway in recent months due to the increased Russian involvement in the conflict.
TCB: What happens next in Syria following this agreement?
RR: In the unlikely event that the agreement holds, Syrian President Bashar al- Assad, backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran, will be speaking and negotiating from a position of increased power and presence in the wake of the collapse of Aleppo and further Syrian gains against opposition forces. There is strong talk that Putin and Turkey have discussed a way forward for Syria, which allows Assad to retain power, gives limited amnesty to certain elements of the opposition, and calls for more “inclusiveness” in a coalition government to be led by Assad.
Much of that efforts sounds more like smoke and mirrors than reality, as too much blood has been spilled, and the animosities and atrocities by both sides are simply too much to forget. Informed Syrian and regional sources note that there is some increased concern in Assad's circle that the incoming U.S. President is less predictable and more aggressive than the current President and that taking advantage of the remaining weeks until the new President is sworn in to establish some type of governance or permanent ceasefire framework is to Assad’s and Russia's advantage.
