Despite a recent wave of terrorist attacks in northern Jordan, the country’s government remains strong. In fact, according to Sultan Barakat, Director of Research at Brookings Doha Center, “it is quite remarkable, despite the recent attacks, that things are reasonably good.” However, Barakat cautions that stability “can’t just be maintained on its own” and that disenfranchised youth may pose the biggest threat to Jordanian security moving forward.
The Cipher Brief: How stable is the Jordanian monarchy at the present moment?
Sultan Barakat: The government is stable, and considering the pressures on the country from inside and outside, it is quite remarkable, despite the recent attacks, that things are reasonably good.
Jordan is unique in that it has gotten used to surviving crises. Its entire history has been moving from one crisis to the next and, in a sense, that does help it work together and remain focused on the objective of stabilizing the country and surviving the next crisis. That’s a kind of common understanding amongst all of the population in Jordan. All of the various political groups, Palestinians and Jordanian, all seem to agree on this, which is a positive fact in the current circumstance.
TCB: How is the monarch, King Abdullah II, viewed in Jordan? Are his approval ratings high?
SB: Yes. Like all other monarchies, Jordan does have some issues. The fact that with this ISIS crisis, they’ve rolled back some of the progress that they’ve made in the past, in terms of freedom of media and freedom of speech, is not very positive. But overall, I do not think the King’s position has been tainted by what’s going on.
TCB: To what extent has the Jordanian government cracked down on media in the country, particularly in the wake of a growing ISIS threat.
SB: It has not been as significant as has been done in Egypt, but it’s all relative. The Jordanian people have gotten used to the freedoms that they have gained over the last ten years or so. For them, the small, targeted restrictions are not acceptable at this stage, but the limitations are very far from what you have in Egypt or what you have in some of the Gulf countries.
TCB: Looking forward, is there potential for a spillover from Syria that could increase pressure on the Jordanian government?
SB: The situation in Jordan cannot be taken for granted. The current stability is good, but it can’t just be maintained on its own, especially given the pressures from the country’s around Jordan. If you look at Iraq, Syria, and Israel, there are many issues running simultaneously.
The Jordanian government must particularly work on stabilizing the country’s economy. The worst threat could arise from within and could be due to the Jordanian government’s inability to satisfy the thousands of unemployed young men. The options in front of those young men are very bleak.
TCB: What economic toll has the influx of Syrian refugees taken on Jordan’s economy?
SB: Clearly, just to cope with the basic needs of the refugees there has been some significant cost, particularly in relation to energy and water. The sudden rise in the population is not easy for Jordan to cope with.
However, having said that, for the last year or so, the drop in the oil prices has eased that tension a little bit. Also, the international community has grown to recognize the need to support Jordan as a state and as an economy. Through that support, there are more and more schemes that are being proposed to help the refugees via the government in Jordan. That is broadly a positive. There are also schemes that are being designed specifically to help raise the employment opportunities for both the Jordanians and the Syrians at the same time, and that also is very positive.
The international community is well aware of the vulnerability of the situation in Jordan and the risk they’re running. But it’s taken them a long time to reach this stage, and we don’t seem to be very good at predicting the next phase. A lot of this has been really reactionary, which is not as effective as we’d like it to be.
TCB: Has Jordan gravitated toward Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council to enhance their security?
SB: Jordan is currently working closely with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries with regard to their own security in Jordan, but also with regard to the security of other gulf countries and in the spirit of other interests in the Gulf, including Jordan’s support for the war in Yemen.
TCB: Much has been made about a cooling in U.S.-Saudi relations. Has anything similar occurred in the U.S.-Jordan relationship? What is the current state of U.S.-Jordan relations?
SB: The U.S.-Jordan relationship is very different from the U.S.-Saudi relationship. There is a mutual interdependence between the two. To the United States, Jordan is the last island of stability in the region and also the place where a lot of the humanitarian assistance is being delivered, the only refuge for a lot of people, and so on. The U.S. must think very carefully about the way it relates to Jordan all of the time. For Jordan, they are almost completely dependent on American support for their security situation. I do not think that the U.S.-Jordan relationship will follow the same trajectory as the U.S.-Saudi relationship.
