Does Putin See an Opportunity with a Trump Administration?

Posted: August 23rd, 2016

By Rob Dannenberg

Rob Dannenberg served as chief of operations for CIA's Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division and chief of the Information Operations Center before retiring from the Agency. He served as managing director and head of the Office of Global Security for Goldman Sachs, and as director of International Security Affairs at BP. He is now an independent consultant on geopolitical and security risk.

There is no question of the intense level of interest in Moscow in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election campaign. For the first time in modern history, Russia faces the prospect of a U.S. president who does not come from the established political process in the U.S., and if elected, would have a mandate for change far exceeding even that of Barack Obama when elected in 2008. This prospect is certainly viewed with some trepidation in a Kremlin which highly values its ability to assess and predict the behavior of its major economic and geopolitical adversary, the U.S.

Putin will not waste any time using his intelligence services to collect the type of information that will allow him to assess the “objective” opportunities presented by a Trump Administration. In this context, “objective” means the ability to influence and manipulate or corrupt and embarrass, ultimately resulting in the geopolitical outmaneuvering of the Trump team.

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