The U.S. and Egypt remain allies although relations have been strained since the 2011 Egyptian revolution, which resulted in the ousting of then-President Hosni Mubarak. Since then there was a brief period of military rule, the election and subsequent ousting of former President Mohamed Morsi, a transitional government led by Adly Mansour, and now the current government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The Cipher Brief talked to U.S.-Middle East policy expert Steven Cook about the current status of U.S.-Egypt relations. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The Cipher Brief: How has the U.S.-Egypt strategic partnership developed since the 2011 overthrow of then-Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak?
Steven Cook: U.S.-Egypt relations have deteriorated since the January 25 uprising. Egyptian officials and elites have long believed that the United States wants to "change the character" of the Egyptian political system – meaning they believe that Washington supports the Muslim Brotherhood. This reflects a deep and abiding mistrust. Of course, the United States continues to provide $1.3 billion in military aid to the Egyptian armed forces annually, but that has not mitigated the distrust. For their part, American officials are frustrated with Egypt's deteriorating human rights conditions and unwillingness to take Washington's advice when it comes to security in the Sinai. There are also differences in policy over Libya and Syria.
TCB: Can you elaborate on those policy differences between the U.S. and Egypt over Libya and Syria?
SC: In Libya, the Egyptians have been supportive of General Khalifa Haftar, who fashions himself as the Libyan Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (Egypt’s current president). Washington, on the other hand, supports the national unity government in Libya. In Syria, the Egyptians are implicitly supportive of the Russian mission because they fear any successor to the Bashar al-Assad regime will include the Muslim Brotherhood. The U.S., of course, is opposed to the Russian mission and supports the United Nations Security Council Resolution that calls for a transitional government.
TCB: What does U.S. security-assistance to Egypt look like?
SC: Washington continues to provide $1.3 billion/year in security-related assistance to Egypt. This figure has been consistent since FY2011, even with a suspension of some aid after the ousting of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi in 2013.
TCB: How does the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) play into the mix? Will the U.S. (or has the U.S. already) start sending more military assistance to Egypt to be used to defeat ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula?
SC: The Egyptians are confronting the "Sinai Province" of the self-declared Islamic State. The group was formed out of the Ansar Bait al-Maqdis group, which pledged allegiance to ISIS in 2014. The militants have been operating in the Sinai since 2011, after the Egyptian revolution. It is primarily an Egyptian phenomenon. It has been a tough fight because the Egyptians are ill-equipped and unprepared to fight an insurgency. They are believed to be getting support in the fight directly from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and indirectly from Israel. The U.S. just delivered a large number of MRAPS (vehicles designed to withstand improvised explosion device, or IED, attacks) to the Egyptian military, which will protect Egypt's soldiers and policemen in the Sinai from these kinds of attacks. Those devices – the IEDs – have killed a lot of Egyptian personnel. Still the U.S. and Egypt differ over the proper security strategy to use in the peninsula. The United States has been emphasizing to the Egyptians that they need an actual counter-insurgency strategy as opposed to the scorched earth approach they have been using. The Egyptians have thus far been unwilling to take this advice.
TCB: The indirect support from Israel is an interesting comment, because historically Israel has been opposed to Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai. In fact, a drastic increase in forces could violate the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. Yet, at the same time, Israel is threatened by an ISIS attack launched from the Sinai. How is Israel balancing this situation? What kind of indirect support are the Israelis giving the Egyptians?
SC: The Israelis have given the Egyptians the green light to deploy large numbers of forces in the Sinai. There is also believed to be a well-developed channel to share intelligence.
