President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly said that fighting Islamic extremism is one of his administration's top priorities. Determining the path forward in Afghanistan, where the ongoing battle against al Qaeda and the Taliban was launched 15 years ago, is a challenge Trump’s national security team will face as soon as they take office.
Recent Taliban advances across Afghanistan have destabilized the country’s already fragile state. Estimates place the amount of Taliban controlled territory throughout the country at the highest levels since 2001. According to figures released by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) last month, 33 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts have fallen under Taliban control, and another 116 districts throughout the country remain contested between the Taliban and Afghan central government based in Kabul.
“In the short-term, our minimal objective is to make sure that the government in Kabul is not overrun by the Taliban,” explains Robert Grenier, Cipher Brief expert and former CIA Chief of Station for Pakistan and Afghanistan. “We have to make sure that the Afghan government is able to maintain control over the areas where it has a competitive advantage over the Taliban and make sure that they are not overrun,” says Grenier.
Since the U.S. ended its combat mission in Afghanistan in December 2014, the Afghan Security Forces (ASF) have spearheaded the effort to defend against the Taliban, and the ASF has emerged as the “most respected institution in Afghanistan” stated Ronald Neumann, Cipher Brief expert and former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan. But according to SIGAR’s latest report, the Afghan’s military strength declined by 2,199 personnel in the third quarter of 2016 and the attrition rate as of August 2016 rose to 33.5 percent, up from 28 percent at the same time last year. Such factors present the U.S. with the challenge of propping up the ASF and helping ensure it remains a formidable fighting force.
Afghanistan’s stability also hinges on the leadership of the Kabul government and its ability to effectively govern provinces throughout the country. Corruption within the government runs rampant, particularly amongst senior level officials, leading many in Afghanistan to mistrust the government’s intentions and agenda
“The Afghan government needs to continue moving against corrupt officials,” explains Neumann. “They have begun this but they need to go after more senior figures.”
Afghanistan reconstruction represents another significant undertaking. The U.S. is heavily involved in providing both financial and logistical support for infrastructure projects across Afghanistan. According to SIGAR, “Cumulative appropriations for relief and reconstruction in Afghanistan totaled approximately $115.2 billion, as of September 20, 2016.” Despite efforts by SIGAR and other organizations to monitor the vast reconstruction schematics, such a task has evolved into a daunting challenge as it has become exceptionally difficult to manage and account for all of the contracts that have been awarded for reconstruction projects across Afghanistan.
Furthermore, Afghanistan’s economy remains in a dire state. Approximately 23 percent of Afghanistan’s labor force was unemployed in 2013-2014, nearly three times the level of 2011-2012. The World Bank ranked Afghanistan as 183rd out of 190 with regard to the ease of doing business, indicating that the regulatory environment for starting or operating a business in Afghanistan is extremely difficult. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) categorized Afghanistan’s economic activity as “weak” and concluded that the economic outlook for 2016 and beyond “remains very difficult.”
“The economic situation in Afghanistan is not good, and in part its because of the drawdown of U.S. and coalition forces, which has had a direct impact on the amount of money being spent over there,” explains John Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
“The security situation in Afghanistan has also had a negative impact on the economy,” Sopko continued. “People are afraid to invest, foreigners are afraid to invest if they are going to be kidnapped or blown up. And the national unity government is behind the eight ball because of all of the corruption that existed before.”
With all of these elements in play, Afghanistan’s complicated state clearly cannot be fixed overnight. Developing a strategy for a course of action in Afghanistan will be an important first step for the Trump national security team.
“The overarching challenge for the incoming Trump Administration is to make clear its policy and to keep to it,” says Neumann. “If the Trump Administration is going to stay in Afghanistan, as I think they should, they need to settle in for the long haul.”
Bennett Seftel is deputy director of editorial at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @BennettSeftel.
