In an historic proclamation, then President Barack Obama announced in December 2014, “the United States of America is changing its relationship with the people of Cuba [and] we will begin to normalize relations between our two countries.”
Obama promised to reestablish diplomatic relations that had been severed for nearly 53 years; review Cuba’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism; increase travel, commerce, and the flow of information between the U.S. and Cuba; and discuss with Congress the possibility of lifting the trade embargo on Cuba.
Yet since that proclamation, the Cuban government has done little to advance relations. Former CIA Chief of Station and Cipher Brief expert Kevin Hulbert notes, “Rather than take the initiative and make significant changes in policies, Cuban President Raul Castro (Fidel Castro’s brother) has not only failed to seize the day, he has failed to do much of anything.”
There are two possible explanations for the Cuban government’s slowness in enacting meaningful reforms to open its economy, according to Susan Kaufman Purcell, former Director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. The first is that “the government is afraid it might lose some control if the economy really opens up.” Hulbert echoes that, saying, “the regime could probably not survive significant Foreign Direct Investment.”
The second reason, notes Purcell, is that the Cubans viewed President Obama as “too eager to cut a deal … to benefit his legacy.” So, the Cuban government kept adding demands to the proposed deals, thinking they could get more from Mr. Obama before making major overhauls.
But now that Donald Trump has been elected U.S. president, the Cubans may have lost a bargaining chip.
Although earlier in his presidential campaign, Trump said he was okay with opening up to Cuba and that restoring U.S. diplomatic relations with the island nation was “fine” and something he is likely to continue, he has since reversed course.
In a September 2016 campaign speech in Miami, Mr. Trump announced he would roll back Obama’s executive orders on Cuba if the Cuban government refuses to meet demands for “religious and political freedom for the Cuban people and the freeing of political prisoners.”
Right after his election, Trump tweeted, “If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate the deal.”
Still, it is unlikely the Trump administration will act on this anytime soon.
“[Trump] couldn’t care less about Cuba,” says Dr. Frank Mora, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs, adding, “The evolution of his position demonstrates that he doesn’t really understand or consider this a priority.”
Purcell adds, “I do not expect his [Trump] doing anything dramatic, or even focusing on Cuba during the first hundred days because he has several other high priority items. Cuba is not a high priority item for him right now. He’s got to get the U.S. economy moving as he sees it.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. embargo against Cuba will remain, as Congress, even under the Obama administration, is loath to rescind it.
Yet even with the uncertainty of future U.S.-Cuba relations, businesses continue to act as if a thawed relationship is a permanency.
American Airlines opened an office in Cuba’s capital Havana last week, about two months after the airline flew the first scheduled commercial flight from America to Havana in more than five decades. Cuba manager for the airline, Galo Beltran, commented, “We cannot speculate about what (Trump’s) next step will be, but I can assure you that we are moving our machine forward.”
Several other U.S. airlines now offer commercial flights between the two countries, including JetBlue and small commuter carrier Silver Airways.
A record 3.52 million tourists from around the world visited Cuba in 2015, the year following Obama’s announcement. That’s a 17.4 percent increase from 2014. American visits rose 77 percent in 2015 to 161,000, and that’s not even counting Cuban-Americans. Tourist arrivals reached an all time high in March 2016, hitting 455,355 visitors.
In addition, “the U.S. is exporting telecom equipment, certain medicines, food, agricultural goods. And there are now banking ties that have begun between the two countries,” says Purcell.
Given this economic growth since the Obama-era opening, Hulbert remarks that “Trump is, in his heart, a pragmatic businessman and, as such, he might find it difficult to unwind Obama’s nascent opening to Cuba.”
At the same time, Cuba may need the U.S. more now than in the past, as Castro gets older and its longtime patron Venezuela – itself a replacement supporter since the collapse of the Soviet Union – teeters on the brink of economic collapse.
Purcell explains that Cuba’s economic system has been dependent on subsidized oil shipments from Venezuela. But as Venezuela’s oil production declines, the Cuban oil subsidy is disappearing, and Cuba is not producing oil to satisfy its own needs.
Moreover, says Purcell, “the Cubans got extra money from the Venezuela oil because they took a part of it [the subsidy] … and then they sold it on the global markets, which enabled [them] to capture the price.”
With this strategy’s usefulness diminishing and a new U.S. administration that appears much less inclined to give in to Cuban demands, the tables may be turning: The Castro regime is losing the luxury of time.
White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer gave the only indication so far of America’s future Cuba policy on Friday, saying, “We are in the midst of a full review of all U.S. policies towards Cuba. The President is committed to an agenda of ensuring human rights for all citizens throughout the world. And as we review those policies in Cuba, that will be forefront in their policy discussions, but there is nothing that we have on that front at this point.”
As uncertainty looms, Castro may be running out of time as he continues to stall on significant reforms.
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
