EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The change in U.S. posture toward Ukraine, the expanding fracture between the U.S. and NATO, and what appears, at least for now, to be a closer alignment between the U.S. and Russia are all developments that would have been inconceivable just months ago. And the reversal of fortunes for Russia, if the current trajectory remains, would be stunning.
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be on the verge of escaping a looming strategic defeat that would have had long-term consequences for Russia’s national power and influence. In fact, the Russian leader may now not only see a path to achieve most of his original goals from Moscow’s 2022 unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, but he may also see a way to deliver a strategic defeat to the U.S. And let’s be clear, those are his goals, not an end to the killing or to the war that he started.
The U.S. objectives to end the killing and stop the war are certainly laudable, but those relatively vague goals, considering what’s at stake, do not address the strongly held objectives of Ukraine, NATO, or Russia. Neither side is prepared to accept terms that simply stop the war but do not address their primary objectives—the stakes are too high, particularly for Ukraine, whose very survival as a sovereign nation is at risk.
Putin also has regional and global ambitions. He remains intent on rebuilding the Russian Empire, and the future of Ukraine is part of that plan. A negotiated agreement is still possible, but so is a failed negotiation that results in a continuation of the war.
While this may appear to be an effort to end a three-year regional war, what we’re witnessing in Ukraine is great power competition with all the superpowers involved, supported by allies and proxies, and with many regional and aspiring nations watching closely to see how they can exploit the outcome.
Smaller countries are likewise watching to inform their decisions on which superpower is the most reliable long-term partner. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the outcome of the negotiations could influence the global order for decades to come.
Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but there is still time and space for the U.S. to maneuver negotiations in a way that protects Ukraine’s long-term interests, sustains U.S. global standing and influence, and appropriately denies any reward for Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. But it requires decisive action.
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Given Putin’s duplicitous approach to negotiations, I believe the U.S. can and should reset talks to ensure Putin understands he is not in charge. What does that reset look like?
First, it means restating the objectives of the negotiations to a permanent ceasefire and full withdrawal by Russia from Ukraine territory seized during and since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That achieves the U.S. objective to stop the killing and end the war.
The U.S. should also establish a clear redline that Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence are non-negotiable, and that NATO membership is a decision for Ukraine and NATO, not a bargaining chip. It is also important to put Putin on notice that Russia must pay appropriate reparations to Ukraine to help rebuild destroyed infrastructure. Security guarantees for Ukraine would be a separate discussion for Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO.
These are all reasonable given the circumstances of the war, and it is unthinkable that these strong demands are not already on the table.
Second is to reset the agenda to the “Big Table” by bringing Russia, the U.S., Ukraine, and NATO to the negotiation table together. This ensures that those with the most to gain and lose, play an active role. This also lets Ukraine address its issues directly to Putin and puts more checks and balances at the table ensuring that any agreement is equitable and less susceptible to manipulation by a single party.
Putin will almost certainly balk at this. He prefers bilateral negotiations or negotiating from a distance where he can exert more control over the narrative and terms. Putin is likely to resist any change in the format that limits his ability to manipulate the negotiations or to play his strong-man role, which is all the more reason to level the playing field and prevent Putin from dictating the process of the negotiations and the outcome.
There are significant global changes already taking shape based on the early stages of the negotiations. Some potential outcomes are bleak, but nothing is set or inevitable quite yet.
The global community is seeing a different America; one that it doesn’t understand or like. As many analysts have opined, the U.S. could be ceding its 80-year role as global leader and guarantor of global democracies and global security—with authoritarian rulers in China and Russia, with the support of global disrupters, such as Iran and North Korea, more than willing to remake the global order.
The U.S. faces a potential weakened global reputation and diminished global influence, particularly in Europe. We have already seen the statements from many European leaders on how NATO and Europe must move forward without the support of the U.S.
The decisions on Ukraine and Russia are consequential. For the U.S., how the negotiations end will be much more important than how they began.
The negotiations may unleash an emboldened and empowered Russia with an aggressive global agenda and an axe to grind. In great power competition, there are winners and losers. Russia’s perceived win would come at the expense of Ukraine, NATO, the U.S., and the Westphalian global world order we’ve known since WWII.
Russia will almost certainly continue its gray zone operations to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and political independence with the goal to ultimately return Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of control. Russia knows how to do this below the level of direct conflict.
Putin’s use of gray zone activities, such as cognitive warfare, political coercion, bribes, assassinations, sabotage, and other pressures can be effective and difficult to counter. Without a strong plan for security guarantees, Ukraine as a sovereign nation will remain in jeopardy.
Russia will also increase gray zone attacks in Europe. It will be free to punish and undermine the countries that support Ukraine and charm those countries favorable to resuming relations with Russia. Putin believes he can drive wedges all across Europe.
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Other regions, such as the Baltics and Central Asia, which felt some relief from Russia as it faced sanctions and loss of national power when it was bogged down in Ukraine, will quickly become priorities for Russia again. Those countries already know this, and they are concerned.
America remains Putin’s favorite target, and his goals against the U.S. will not change even if he secures sanctions relief, economic opportunities, and restored diplomatic relations. He will use warm diplomacy and empty promises, but he will not become America’s friend.
Those outcomes will not only strengthen Putin’s hand but will also allow him to flow Russian intelligence officers into the U.S., recruit more American citizens, gain access to policy makers and American businesses, and work to gain even greater access to U.S. critical infrastructure. Putin will use this opportunity to continue his gray zone activity against the U.S. and put himself in a stronger position for the next time there is a conflict with the U.S. His goal of a strategic defeat of the U.S. remains intact.
China may be the biggest winner if Russia comes away with a win in negotiations over the future of Ukraine. Beijing has quietly supported and even encouraged Russia, making calculated investments and accepting minimal risk and exposure. Russia has played a proxy role in China’s gray war against America, much like Russia views its war with Ukraine as a proxy war against the U.S. and a win by Russia enables a narrative that China is the more influential global leader.
China has watched and learned more about U.S. weapons and technology, gaps in the industrial base, U.S. global logistics, the impact and limits of sanctions, internal political disagreements, and how the new U.S. administration sees its role in the world.
Now, Beijing is likely to be more assertive and more confident in its gray war on America. It will seek to exploit what it sees as U.S. hesitancy to maintain its global leadership role. China sees parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine in assessing U.S. commitment and resolve to lead an international effort should China make more aggressive moves to take Taiwan.
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Chinese leader Xi Jinping is capable of shifts in strategy. Watching the interactions between President Putin and President Trump, Xi may see the opportunity for a grand deal with the U.S. that tacitly concedes Taiwan to China in exchange for significant economic and trade concessions. China will also quickly fill the gaps left by the withdrawal of U.S. aid all around the world.
Although largely unrelated to Ukraine per se, the timing suits China. Beijing’s commitment to engagement and investment, most often demonstrated by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), provides China with access, influence, and dual-use infrastructure that enables it’s global political, economic, and military ambitions.
The BRI is part of China’s strategy to strategically outmaneuver the U.S. around the world. The U.S. has been struggling to counter the BRI, and the withdrawal of U.S. aid will give China a freer hand in Africa, the Global South, and other areas important to great power competition. China will no doubt employ a narrative of U.S. abandonment in those areas where U.S. aid has been abruptly withdrawn.
It will be harder going forward, but the U.S. can still influence the outcome of the negotiations if it changes its negotiating strategy now. It’s clear that Putin will not be a cooperative partner in current negotiations. Among all the players, he is the only one that can end the war at any time; but he chooses not to do so.
It’s not too late for a U.S. reset on negotiations, particularly given the high stakes involved not just now but well into the future.
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