EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION – The upcoming peaceful inauguration of the next U.S. president should serve as a reminder to the world of the virtues of government ‘by the people’ and should also serve as an opportunity to deliver a message of strength to U.S. adversaries.
When it comes to Russia, the opportunity centers around two basic concepts: 1) Putin is the problem and is the center of a web of activities aimed at undermining the United States and a world order based on rules of law and not military power; 2) Ukraine must prevail against Russia’s aggression.
If Ukraine falls or some “peace deal” is reached which allows Putin to proclaim victory to his allies or the Russian people, then the real “losers” will be Ukraine (of course) but also the U.S. and the West.
The incoming president should not be led to believe that he can make a deal with Putin. If it ever existed, that time is long past. The “one mafia Don dealing with another mafia Don” paradigm that many have said was part of President Trump’s approach to Putin and Russia during his first term no longer exists. Putin has hardened his view of the U.S. and the West and has acted on it via through his violent aggression against Ukraine and acts of supervision and sabotage around the world. Putin is all in. The new administration needs to understand that the calculus has changed and orient itself and its policies accordingly to take full advantage of the opportunity that exists.
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Putin is weaker than he has ever been. You would never guess this from his actions and the noise from his fellow travelers, but it is true. The fall of Assad, the stunning success of Israeli operations against Iran and its surrogates and Russia’s inability to do anything about it has dramatically weakened Russian power in a critical sector of Putin’s imagined sphere of influence.
Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO has weakened the other flank of Putin’s ambition. This has consequences for Russia’s standing internationally and has rattled many in Moscow’s elite circles.
The campaign in Ukraine has devastated Russia’s conventional military power both in practice and reputation. Three years ago, the general view in professional military circles was that Russia was a conventional military powerhouse in addition to being a nuclear superpower. That view has changed dramatically.
Russia’s economy is buckling under inflation, ruble depreciation, high interest rates and a lack of foreign investment. Not to mention brain drain and a stretched workforce with so many casualties from the war.
Recently announced sanctions against powerful players in Russia’s oil sector and their tanker fleet are likely to be impactful both for Russian state revenues and for the pocketbooks of important members of the siloviki. (One wonders, of course, why the Biden Administration waited until its final ten days to enact these sanctions.)
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While the ability of the Russian population to endure suffering should not be underestimated, there is emerging evidence of discontent within Russia’s elite circles. The incoming Trump team should listen to the Ukrainians. They know Russia best. There is a reason they are taking the war to Russia, both in the Kursk salient and via drone attacks that are reaching into Russian territory. Ukrainians are making that difficult because they understand the fissures in Putin’s base of support.
President Trump has the opportunity to secure a place in the pantheon of great western leaders if he uses the early days of his administration to remove any illusion Putin may have that the Trump plan to end the war will be something that Putin can portray domestically or internationally as a victory.
To the contrary, the Trump team should distinguish and distance itself from the pathetic path of the Biden administration in dealing with Russia and the enemies of the west. The U.S. has been slow and cautious in providing anything other than rhetorical support to Ukraine. We have barely provided enough for Ukraine to survive and not nearly enough for them to achieve anything close to victory or to have dissuaded Putin from his relentless attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. From Day One President Trump should do something Biden was never willing to do and firmly state a commitment to Ukraine’s victory. A good place to start would be to review what Roosevelt and Churchill did at Casablanca.
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And the opportunity for historic change is not limited to eastern Europe. Putin is sitting on a house of cards that is ready to collapse. We could be on the cusp of global realignment. Assad is gone, the Iranian theocracy is reeling thanks to the aggressive actions of our Israeli allies. If Putin loses in his Ukraine gambit, the Russian military, siloviki, or a combination of the two will will likely take steps against their Russian president. And when Putin is gone, the dictatorships in Venezuela and Cuba, already reeling and—with no hope of Russian rescue—will likely soon collapse.
This is all predicated and dependent on firm moral and practical pressure from Washington. Putin’s great ally China also appears to be perceptive of the failure of Putin’s Ukraine gambit and, with its own economy in serious trouble, is perhaps likely less likely to continue to support Putin in the same way.
There is no better opportunity to set the stage for this realignment and to demonstrate U.S. resolve than during the Inauguration Day speech. America is at its greatest when standing up to aggressive dictators like Putin. Bring on Pax Americana.
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