OPINION — A few months ago, I received an unexpected message from a well-placed source within the Taliban. That message led to a series of secured phone calls, revealing startling insights into the regime’s internal dynamics. Until then, like many others, I believed that the Taliban had consolidated power and was establishing an iron-fisted rule. As the world sees it, the Taliban Emir’s primary focus is the institutionalization of a gender apartheid regime. However, beneath this rigid surface, the regime is grappling with its own survival.
The communications I received spoke of deep-rooted factionalism, multiple power centers, and an ongoing internal power struggle. Every faction within the Taliban is maneuvering to strengthen itself at the expense of the remaining institutions built during the past two decades of Western intervention. I took these revelations seriously, given the credibility of my source. However, verification was necessary, so I sought confirmation from multiple sources inside the Taliban and Afghanistan. What I uncovered preoccupied me for months. The more I investigated, the clearer it became: an internal conflict within the Taliban is not a question of if but when.
Recently, these internal divisions have begun surfacing in public discourse. However, what is being discussed is merely the tip of the iceberg. The prevailing narrative often frames the power struggle as a conflict between Taliban leaders based in Kabul and those in Kandahar. In reality, the divisions run much deeper, rooted in regional and ethnic identities. The once-cohesive and monolithic terrorist organization is unraveling along these very lines.
Unlike its founder, Mullah Omar, the current Taliban Emir, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, lacks the authority and unifying force necessary to hold the group together. In an attempt to solidify his rule, he has institutionalized gender apartheid, isolated Afghanistan from the international community, and maintained alliances with terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Akhundzada reportedly holds regular meetings with leaders of these organizations. Despite these efforts, he has failed to consolidate power or maintain internal cohesion. His attempts to centralize authority—favoring commanders from his own Noorzai tribe—have exacerbated divisions rather than uniting the group.
The Taliban had a golden opportunity over the past three years to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. Instead, they squandered it. Rather than establishing a constitutional government based on popular consent, they have ruled through repression, issuing decrees that strip Afghans of political, social, and civil rights. Rather than alleviating poverty or creating economic opportunities, they have monopolized the nation’s wealth, particularly the lucrative mining sector, which is now controlled by figures like Haji Bashir Noorzai.
The Taliban’s taxation policies have further burdened ordinary Afghans, leaving them with little purchasing power. For the past three and a half years, U.S. financial aid has propped up the Afghan economy and kept its currency relatively stable. However, as discussions about halting this aid gain momentum, the Afghan currency is plummeting, and inflation is skyrocketing. The political ramifications of cutting off this financial lifeline are proving far more consequential than initially anticipated. The Taliban regime now finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position.
Beyond economic mismanagement, the Taliban had a historic opportunity to engage with the world and gain international legitimacy. Despite diplomatic overtures from the U.S. and the United Nations, they have shown no willingness to become a responsible member of the global community. Instead, they have rejected every pathway to legitimacy, behaving more like a rogue actor than a governing entity.
To illustrate this failure, a comparison with the situation in Syria is instructive. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group with origins in ISIS and Al-Qaeda, faced widespread international condemnation and was designated a terrorist organization. Unlike the Taliban, however, HTS has actively worked to change its image, preserve Syria’s diverse and pluralistic society, and address global security concerns. As a result, it is gradually gaining legitimacy both domestically and internationally. The Taliban, on the other hand, had far more diplomatic engagement and international goodwill through its Doha office before taking power. Yet, in the past three and a half years, it has squandered every opportunity to reform, choosing instead to institutionalize gender apartheid and alienate both Afghans and the global community.
Today, the Taliban stands as the world’s most isolated regime and one of the least popular governments in modern history. More critically, it is on the brink of collapse from within. The question is not whether the Taliban’s internal fractures will deepen, but rather how soon they will bring the regime to its breaking point.
Recommendations
It is often assumed that international pressure and condemnation of the Taliban will have little effect. However, recent developments suggest otherwise. The International Criminal Court prosecutor’s request for an arrest warrant against the Taliban’s Emir and Chief Justice for crimes against humanity—specifically their gender apartheid policies—has had a significant impact. The warrant has intensified internal divisions, with some Taliban factions using it to challenge the Emir’s authority. While it may seem symbolic, the warrant has sent a powerful message. Many Taliban leaders and their followers see it as a sign that their days in power are numbered.
Beyond its legal implications, the warrant is a formal recognition of the systematic injustice inflicted on Afghan women. It has also struck a nerve within the Taliban, a group that, despite its rhetoric, remains highly image-conscious. The warrant is perceived as a public shaming, reinforcing the idea that the Taliban’s rule is neither legitimate nor sustainable. This demonstrates that international law and sustained diplomatic pressure still hold weight. The international community must remain consistent in calling out the Taliban’s policies on women and human rights, ensuring that their crimes remain at the forefront of global discussions.
A second critical development has been President Donald Trump’s decision to halt U.S. financial assistance to Afghanistan under Taliban control. This move has dealt a severe blow to the Taliban’s financial stability, further weakening their grip on power. The Taliban have long manipulated humanitarian aid for their own benefit, monopolizing resources while the Afghan people continue to suffer. Moving forward, aid must be restructured to bypass the Taliban entirely, ensuring that assistance reaches the Afghan people without strengthening the regime.
Finally, President Trump appears keen to regain control over billions of dollar’s worth of U.S. military equipment left in Afghanistan and, if feasible, retake Bagram Air Base. Two approaches have been suggested: direct engagement with the Taliban or collaboration with the Afghan opposition in exile. However, neither of these approaches alone will be effective. Instead, a third, more strategic option is required—one that blends elements of both.
Direct engagement with the Taliban has failed repeatedly, emboldening them rather than moderating their behavior. A more effective strategy would be for the U.S. to appoint a strong envoy to work closely with Afghan opposition groups while also exploiting the Taliban’s internal fractures. A transformation within the Taliban—one that integrates elements of Afghanistan’s previous governance structure with aspects of their conservative ideology—is not inconceivable. A similar shift has occurred in Syria, where a once-radical insurgency has made calculated policy changes to secure legitimacy. Given the Taliban’s internal power struggles and the influence of U.S. allies in the Gulf, a similar approach in Afghanistan is plausible.
The international community cannot afford to take a passive stance on Afghanistan. By sustaining legal and diplomatic pressure, restructuring humanitarian aid, and adopting a more strategic approach to engaging with opposition forces and internal Taliban factions, the Taliban’s grip on power can be further weakened. The regime is already unraveling from within—these steps can accelerate its collapse.
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