President Petro Poroshenko now says that Ukraine is ready to consider talks with Russia.
The Ukrainian leader told French broadcaster, France 24, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has agreed to talks involving the four countries that make up the ‘Normandy Four’: Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.
This, after President Donald Trump cancelled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at last week’s G20 meeting, failing to act on an opportunity to deliver a public warning to Putin that would have been in line with condemnations from other senior members of the Trump administration.
Russia seized Ukrainian vessels and took 24 Ukrainian sailors into custody last month, claiming the Ukrainians had illegally crossed the Russian border.
The Cipher Brief spoke with Russia expert and former CIA Officer Dan Hoffman about Putin’s long game in Ukraine.
The Cipher Brief: What do you think the next steps should be after Russia seized the Ukraine’s vessels and sailors last month?
Hoffman: It's no accident that Vladimir Putin ratcheted up the stakes here. It's wild hypocrisy that shouldn't be too much of a surprise - that Russia would fire upon and seize - three Ukrainian vessels in the Sea of Asov, and then blame Ukraine for an act of aggression. It’s typical, that's what they would do. But Russia annexed Crimea, they've been providing military support to the separatists in Donbass. They’ve been launching massive cyberattacks against Ukraine. I think the immediate condemnation from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley was really important. Now, President Trump has to do the same. Putin is playing a game, a dangerous one. A risky one.
The Cipher Brief: What else should the U.S. be doing to pressure Putin to curb his aggressive actions in Ukraine?
Hoffman:We need to take stronger measures than just verbal rebuke of Russia. There's got to be increased military intelligence support to Ukraine so that we can help them deter future aggression. Russia is clearly trying to strangle Ukraine's economic lifeline, which runs through the Kerch Strait into the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
And then strategically, are they trying to weaken Poroshenko in advance of the March 2019 presidential elections? Possibly, but it could backfire because Poroshenko is going to be perceived, rightly so, to be a defender of Ukraine's besieged fortress.
The Cipher Brief: So, this is really no surprise, but more of a calculated move by Putin?
Hoffman: It's pretty brazen on the part of Putin, and it's kind of typical of their negotiating style to cause a problem, and then charge you for helping to solve the problem that they created in the first place. Max Kampelman, the START negotiator, used to call it, figuratively speaking, "putting a boulder in the middle of the road, then making you pay to remove it." It's kind of what they did here. They started this act of aggression, and now they're going to charge us for dialing down the temperature a little bit and try to make Ukraine look like they were at fault.
The Cipher Brief: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week was urging both leaders to engage directly with each other to fix this. What do you think the likelihood is of that happening?
Hoffman: That's not going to happen. They're at war. Russia essentially, is at war with Ukraine and they're not going to solve anything together. There's no interest on Russia's part to solve anything together. So, the only thing that will make this happen - and again - if all they get are a few strong words of condemnation from NATO allies, that's not really going to be enough. Sometimes you have to rap Russia on the knuckles and remind them that there's a price to pay. Sanctions clearly haven't deterred them. I wrote this in an article in The Cipher Brief a while back, that at the end of the day, what scares Putin is democracy, especially in the form of a Soviet Union—neighboring state, like Ukraine, with a sizable Russian-speaking population. That scares the heck out of Vladimir Putin. And that's why ultimately, Ukraine isn't a real strategic threat to Russia. It's just that, if they are a decoy to join the European Union and NATO, then they become an existential threat, for sure.
The Cipher Brief: And Putin doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO?
Hoffman: Putin definitely does not want Ukraine to join NATO, and then have military control over the Crimea, which is why he annexed it in the first place and that’s why he's imposing military control over this very strategic passageway, in the event that's it a kind of hedge, an insurance policy, in the event that Ukraine does continue to get closer to NATO. Vladimir Putin has drawn a red line and said, "NATO will not be here." And he's going to deal with that now, before Ukraine becomes a NATO member. That may be his end game.
The Cipher Brief: We’ve talked a lot about Putin’s increased tolerance for taking risk and doing things around the world that certainly draw international condemnation. You have said before that there is something that will stop Vladimir Putin, and you said its democracy. Is that the only thing that will stop him?
Hoffman: He's probing, constantly probing. What price has he paid for the massive influence operations in western Europe? The United States? What price has he paid for poisoning Sergei Skripal with a nerve agent? For taking down the Malaysian aircraft? For hacking into the 2016 election? He feels like ultimately, he's not paying a price, and he's going to keep pushing until he does have to pay a price. And the few times that we pushed back, the Russians have backed off. But at the end of the day, those old strategies of deterrence and containment apply because Vladimir Putin is a KGB operative in the Kremlin. And he sees the world just like Andropov did. And no, his throw weight isn't anywhere close to the Soviets, but his strategy and his tactics and his view of the world isn't a whole lot different.
Also from Dan Hoffman: President Trump Needs to Keep Ukraine High on the Agenda for Upcoming Summit
