OPINION — The state visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was a timely reminder, by one of our closest allies, that the tense situation in East Asia will require even greater U.S. global leadership. Mr. Kishida, in his address to the joint session of Congress, said it clearly: “The leadership of the U.S. is indispensable. Without U.S. support, how long before the hopes of Ukraine would collapse under the onslaught from Moscow? Without the presence of the U.S., how long before the Indo-Pacific would face even harsher realities? Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow.”
Mr. Kishida was concerned about North Korea’s nuclear program and their weapons support to Russia for the war in Ukraine. He also said: “China’s current external stance and military actions present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge, not only to the peace and security of Japan but to the peace and stability of the international community at large.”
Since North Korea’s August 1998 launch of a Taepodong-1 missile that flew over Japan, North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs have progressed at an alarming rate. During this twenty-Six-year period, North Korea conducted six nuclear tests, the last in September 2017 of a thermonuclear weapon. Reportedly, North Korea has between forty and sixty nuclear weapons that can be miniaturized and mated to an arsenal of Short, Medium and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles, in addition to Cruise, Hypersonic and Submarine-Launch Ballistic Missiles. These developments, in addition to the hostile rhetoric coming out of Pyongyang, represent a clear and present national security threat to Japan and the region.
In addition to the nuclear threat, the issue of the Japanese citizens that North Korea abducted over forty years ago remains unresolved and an issue Mr. Kishida wants to resolve in talks with Chairman Kim Jong Un, although on March 29, North Korea Foreign Minister Choe Song Hui said it would reject contact with Japan and that a dialogue with Tokyo is “not a matter of concern” to North Korea.
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During Mr. Kishida’s visit, the first ever summit between the U.S., Japan and the Philippines was convened, with a joint statement that “expressed serious concern about China’s dangerous and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea”, citing China’s confrontation off the Second Thomas Shoal, injuring Filipino soldiers, and damaging a Philippine vessel.
For Japan, it’s not only concern for China’s actions in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait, but China’s aggressive behavior in the East China Sea in waters adjacent to the Senkaku Islands, where as recent as April 12, Japan Coast Guard said that its patrol boats had asked four Chinese coast guard vessels to leave “our territorial waters”. This was the tenth such instance by Chinese vessels this year, according to Japan.
The four southern Kuril Islands – the Northern Territories – is claimed by Japan but occupied by Russia since the end of Worl War 2. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe worked hard to convince Russia to return the islands but was unsuccessful. Since 2015, Russia has increased its permanent military presence on the islands. And since Japan’s support for Ukraine, Russian President Putin expressed an interest in visiting Kuril Islands and making it a tourist destination, with Senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev saying Japan will have to drop its territorial claims to the Kuril Islands if it wants to conclude a peace treaty with Russia to formally end World War Two.
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When you look at the menu of national security issues affecting Japan, it’s easy to understand why Kishida agreed, during his discussions with President Joe Biden, to the creation of a networked system of air, missile, and defense architecture between the U.S., Japan, and Australia, with plans for a trilateral military exercise with Japan and the United Kingdom.
Moreover, Mr. Biden announced that the “AUKUS defense partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom is exploring how Japan can join our work in the second pillar, which focuses on advanced capabilities, including Artificial Intelligence, autonomous systems.”
On May 26-27, 2024, leaders from China, Japan and South Korea are scheduled to hold a trilateral summit in Seoul. This will be an opportunity, since the last trilateral summit in December 2019, in Chengdu, China, for Mr. Kishida to meet with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. It’s likely Li Qiang will remind his counterparts that China is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner, while cautioning them not to join so-called anti-China alliances, like AUKUS. It’s likely that Japan and South Korea will ask China to use its leverage with North Korea to get Kim Jong Un to halt any further missile launches and to refrain from conducting a seventh nuclear test, and to encourage North Korea to return to negotiations.
Given that Beijing said the U.S. and Japan summit had “smeared and attacked” China and Kishida’s comments were “a severe provocation”, it’s possible China will cancel the upcoming summit with Japan and South Korea. That would be a mistake.
Prime Minister Kishida’s summit with President Biden strengthened the alliance between our two countries and significantly enhanced our economic and military cooperation. Indeed, our allies and partners in East Asia are appreciative of a strong U.S. economic and military presence in the region. We shouldn’t disappoint them.
This opinion piece by Cipher Brief Expert Joe Detrani was first published in The Washington Times
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