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EXPERT INTERVIEW — Lebanon’s parliament elected Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as the country’s new president on January 9, ending a deadlock and leadership vacuum that has weighed down the government for two years. On Monday, the parliament named Nawaf Salam, the president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as prime minister. The militant group Hezbollah, which has been badly degraded after a months-long war with Israel, failed to get its favored candidates appointed.
Might Lebanon – a nation battered by political dysfunction, economic crises, and frequent violence – be on the cusp of a renaissance? And what might that mean for the region?
The Cipher Brief turned to Glenn Corn, a Cipher Brief expert and former Senior CIA Officer with deep experience in Lebanon, to tackle these questions, and look at Lebanon’s new leadership will need to succeed.
“There are positive signs, but a lot of things will have to come with them to capitalize on the opportunity in Lebanon and in the Levant,” Corn said. “But there’s a great opportunity right now for the United States to empower our allies and to finish the job of countering and eliminating the influence of our enemies, especially in Lebanon — that would be Iran’s number one proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah.”
Corn spoke with Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski. Their conversation below has been edited for length and clarity. Watch the full discussion on The Cipher Brief’s YouTube channel.
Nagorski: How hopeful are you about this moment for Lebanon?
Corn: How positive can we be? Let’s just focus on the facts. The facts are that after over two years of having no president, the Lebanese have elected a president — the former commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun. And also they had an acting prime minister, a caretaking prime minister. Now they have a prime minister, nominated and confirmed by the parliament. These are two very, very important steps and, I think, positive signs.
There are positive signs, but a lot of things will have to come with them to capitalize on the opportunity in Lebanon and in the Levant. But there’s a great opportunity right now for the United States to empower our allies and to finish the job of countering and eliminating the influence of our enemies, especially in Lebanon — that would be Iran’s number one proxy, Lebanese Hezbollah.
Nagorski: It’s an interesting combination – the president is a former army commander, and the prime minister designate is a jurist at the International Criminal Court. What should those choices tell us? Or is it just important that they have put people in these positions now?
Corn: I think it’s important to note that for two years plus, the Iranians through Hezbollah and to a lesser degree, Amal, the second major Shia party in Lebanon, were blocking the election of a president. They had a candidate they wanted. There was no consensus. I think it’s a clear sign that Lebanese Hezbollah has lost a great deal of its power and its ability to hold the entire government and people of Lebanon at their will, hostages to their policy choices.
This is also the case for the new prime minister. The Lebanese Hezbollah did not want him. The Amal abstained from the vote. Lebanese Hezbollah wanted the continuation of the acting prime minister, [Najib] Makati. That was their candidate of choice, and they didn’t get it, which is really interesting and a very positive development.
Both candidates are going to have their work cut out. Lebanon has had a dysfunctional government for a very long time for a number of reasons. We could do a 12-day podcast trying to unpack all that. But they have an opportunity. They’re going to need help. They’re going to need support. My understanding is that the U.S. government position was, up to this point, that without a president, the U.S. was not going to invest in a lot of aid and assistance for Lebanon, which is badly needed. Now they have a president.
Of course, the ceasefire that was achieved [between Israel and Hezbollah] was very tenuous because I think the Israelis were saying, if the Lebanese did not agree to a president and didn’t have a government in place, they were not going to honor the ceasefire past the end of January. So now there is a president. Now there is a prime minister. Now the process is going to have to happen to name all the members of the cabinet. And my guess is that will start with the security agencies. There are four security services in Lebanon, including the Lebanese Armed Forces G2 and three other services [and] they have played an important role and they will play an important role in stability and enforcing Resolution 1701 and the terms of the ceasefire.
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Nagorski: These all seem to be positive developments.
Corn: It’s positive. Lebanese Hezbollah, which was an armed militia and terrorist organization, which was holding the country hostage in many ways, has been seriously hurt by the Israeli campaign in a way that nobody expected. I think we have to say hats off to the Israelis for what they accomplished in the period that they did. I don’t think anybody was predicting that.
This opens up the door. The Lebanese are beginning to say, which you wouldn’t have heard a year ago, we need to disarm the rest of Hezbollah, because Hezbollah was the only militia that was allowed to keep its arms after the civil war ended. Hezbollah can enter as a legitimate political party to represent the part of the Shia population that supports them, but they should not be allowed to be an armed gang that has the same level of power, or even more in many cases, than the Lebanese Armed Forces. The Lebanese Armed Forces are the legitimate military force in the country and they should be able to secure Lebanon’s borders and not have to count on Lebanese Hezbollah or any other militia to do that for Lebanon. There’s an opportunity.
Nagorski: You used the word “help,” that they’re going to need help. And as effectively as Israel has taken on Hezbollah, there is incredible devastation in South Lebanon, and that’s on top of an economically deeply troubled country. I gather that the investiture of the new president and prime minister may also unlock some aid from the West, some aid from the Gulf?
Corn: Even before the expansion of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah or the war that Hezbollah was waging against Israel in 2023, Lebanon had serious economic problems. The infrastructure has been deteriorating. Of course, the Israeli campaign, especially in the South and in Southern Beirut, has devastated whole parts of the city, parts of towns. So, there’s a lot of need for reconstruction across the country.
My understanding is that the Saudis and other Gulf countries were very hesitant to invest anything further in Lebanon. They’ve given the country money in the past, but they put a lot of that on hold because they saw that Hezbollah, their regional enemy, was basically undermining any effort for development in the country except development that the Iranians or Hezbollah wanted.
The election of a president and naming of a prime minister who’s been confirmed, this opens the door for aid to come. I think some of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries will be more interested and more willing to invest, along with the Europeans and of course the United States.
But this incoming [U.S.] administration is going to have a lot on its plate. It’s inheriting a world which is very, very dangerous and complicated and I would suggest that our foreign policy position across the board is not great. There’s a lot of work that has to be done. And I know there’s going to be a temptation to walk away or ignore the Middle East. I hope they learn the lesson of the outgoing administration which was kind of stunned by [the Hamas attacks on] October 7, and it caused a lot of problems for the administration both externally and domestically. I hope we don’t make that mistake again and we realize that if we don’t help the legitimate leadership of Lebanon to secure these gains and solidify the gains, somebody else will fill that vacuum. And we shouldn’t want that.
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Nagorski: Are Hezbollah or any other parties who may not like what they’re seeing at the moment in Lebanon – are they any position to torpedo this?
Corn: I think that they are still in some position to block, or cause problems. But the momentum is on the side of legitimacy. The momentum is on the side of opponents of Hezbollah. We need to take advantage of this moment.
The Lebanese security forces are going to need assistance. We’ve provided a lot of assistance in the past, but now is the key moment. And let’s hope that all that investment wasn’t for naught, that it didn’t go to waste. The legitimate security services need to be empowered and supported by the U.S. and other partners to finish the job of disarming Hezbollah.
And this is also very important: the legitimate government, the new government, needs to make sure that the Shia population is welcome into any kind of coalition government and that they have a say and that they don’t have to return to Iran or some other power outside of Lebanon to help them. They’ll get the help from the government itself.
And I will say: the Lebanese people are a pretty dynamic people. So that’s another reason for hope. They’re very smart people, educated people. They can be very inspiring. So this is, I think, a very good moment.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
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