
Parsing the Opportunity from Extreme Challenges in the Middle East
EXPERT INTERVIEW / PERSPECTIVE – The Middle East has changed dramatically over the past four years, creating both extraordinary challenges and opportunities for the region […] More
OPINION — Before Hamas’ attack on October 7, Israel’s security leaders issued multiple warnings that internal strife – then mainly over Netanyahu’s pursuit of judicial reform – was making Israel dangerously vulnerable to attack by its adversaries.
They were wrong about the adversary, but not wrong that perceptions of Israeli weaknesses contributed to the timing of the October 7 attack. Israel’s security leaders have been forced to issue similar warnings this week, at a time when Israel’s adversaries are calculating just how far they can push retaliatory actions without provoking an all-out war.
On Monday, far-right protesters attacked military police and stormed an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) base in protest of the IDF arrest of nine soldiers accused of abusing Palestinian prisoners. Several members of parliament were among the protestors – who were being egged on by other members of Israel’s government.
The nine soldiers are being investigated for “aggravated sodomy” and other abuse that reportedly rendered one Palestinian prisoner unable to walk.
Far-Right members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have only doubled down since Monday. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called the detained soldiers “heroic warriors,” and multiple ministers continue to express support for them rather than for the IDF’s responsibility to ensure that soldiers uphold the laws of war.
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Israel is experiencing its own version of Abu Ghraib—where Iraqi prisoners were abused by American soldiers early in the Iraq war. And some Israeli commentators say that the protests echo the riots that broke out at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, with a frenzied crowd pushing through the gates of an Israeli army base with the encouragement of government ministers.
Under any circumstance, these events would be of concern on multiple levels. But that this took place when Israel is at war and, more specifically, in the midst of a potential escalatory cycle on several fronts, is alarming to say the least.
Israeli Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi was forced to step away from what must have been intense final planning for the strikes in Beirut and Tehran, to plan for expected retaliation. The situation was dire enough for Halevi to go the army base to restore order and warn, “We are in the midst of a war and actions of this type endanger the security of the state.”
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It is undeniable that both Iran’s and Hezbollah’s leaders are observing the societal cleavages that are infecting parts of the IDF. Surely, they view this as a sign of Israeli weakness. While I doubt this conflict will have an immediate effect on IDF readiness or capabilities, perception is reality.
Israel’s far right, once again, scores an own goal and remains oblivious and uninterested in the second and third order effects of their actions on Israel’s security. Unfortunately, the interests of the Prime Minister dictate that Israel’s fringe is driving policies and activities that will have outsized destabilizing effects on Israel for years to come, and perhaps also on adversarial decision making in the coming days.
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