OPINION — For those of us who have worked in the ‘find – fix – finish’ world of U.S. counterterrorism operations, the last 48 hours - which included the assassinations of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukur in a rare Israeli strike into Lebanon and Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – have demonstrated Israel’s ability to hunt down its enemies anywhere and everywhere. In my opinion, the U.S. perfected the art of man-hunting in the global war on terrorism, but don't forget Israel wrote the book on it.
The killing of Hamas chief Haniyeh wasn’t surprising mostly because it’s something Israel said it would do. What’s impressive though, is Israel’s operational reach inside Iran. The success of the operation demonstrated not only extraordinary intelligence collection, but also the ability to operate successfully in a denied area. This is deeply humiliating to Iran.
The broader U.S. counterterrorism community, including officers both past and present, are likely feeling that justice was finally done, after Israel killed Shukur. There will be calls of thanks to our Israeli counterparts. Operations like this have felt personal since Hezbollah’s attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983.
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The impact of these Israeli operations on the ongoing negotiations seeking both a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages that were taken during Hamas’ terrorist attack in Israel last October 7 is still unclear. In the short term, it likely means no more "on 10-yard line talk."
Haniyeh was less a hardliner so it may be that Hamas’ military chief Yahya Sinwar, believed to be in hiding inside Gaza, now likely is strengthened.
By the way, it's fair to debate both of these operations in terms of hostage release and ceasefire talks. It certainly will be debated by the Israeli public and political establishment. I note that the Israeli government, in my personal experience, goes through very deliberate cost-benefit analysis on every operation.
Finally, there will be overt condemnations from Arab states regarding the Israeli operations. But there also will be winks and nods, even congratulatory calls. In this region, the overt means very little.
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