OPINION — U.S. President Joseph Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met at the White House last week amidst a rapidly deteriorating global security environment. From Russia to Gaza, Iran to China, a growing number of threats are already straining Washington’s ability to mount effective deterrence and maintain munitions stockpiles. Stronger relations with regional powers will be critical in how future conflicts are won, lost, or prevented. Washington needs a concerted policy shift to account for this new reality.
What in other times might have passed for a routine summit between the U.S. and Japan took on far greater significance this time around. China continues to assert dominance in the waters of Southeast Asia and increasingly threatens to force Taiwan under Beijing’s rule. North Korea has strengthened its missile capabilities despite decades of sanctions and for the first time declared South Korea its “principal enemy.”
With this in mind, Washington and Tokyo agreed to significantly enhance military relations, including an upgrade to command and control capabilities and a defense equipment production agreement. Both are enhancements to a long-standing alliance that may be called into force were a conflict to break out in the region.
These agreements also signify the essential role that so-called “middle powers” play in securing the international system, one that has spread prosperity in much of the world. The middle powers are those – like Japan or South Korea in East Asia, Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf, India in South Asia, Brazil in South America, to name a few – which exert significant regional and even global influence, but not enough to effectively counter rivals on their own.
That’s a principal factor in the U.S. ramping up joint naval patrols with Japan and the Philippines to patrol the South China Sea and counter Beijing’s unilateral claims to the region. Encroachment such as this requires continued challenge, and the U.S. Seventh Fleet can only do so much. That’s why pivotal “middle powers” such as Japan and the Philippines are so important to American burden- and cost-sharing efforts for free and open access to international waters.
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India is another Asian middle power that will prove critical in the ability to check China’s expansionism in South and Southeast Asia. While New Delhi has maintained a non-aligned status for decades, and continues to thread the needle on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, its relations with the U.S. are changing.
U.S.-India military cooperation has seen significant expansion, with major purchases of defense equipment by New Delhi that had previously been reserved for Russian suppliers. India is also gaining access to more advanced U.S. defense systems and is now an integral partner in the Quad grouping that includes Australia, Japan, and the U.S.
In a recent announcement, Washington publicly supported India’s territorial claims in the northern state of Arunachal Pradesh, where China has renamed territory as their own. For decades the U.S. steadfastly refused to engage on such territorial issues, and has been reluctant to define its position on all the rival and sometimes overlapping claims made by countries in the region.
The U.S. military has recently expanded cooperation with Indian forces, especially at sea, in exercises with the goal of defending against encroachment by China.
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In the Middle East, the U.S. has upped its reliance on middle powers including Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to try and keep a tentative peace. Last weekend’s Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel, and a looming Israeli military response, could easily trigger a regional war. When it became clear that the Iranian attacks were imminent, Turkey reportedly acted as a liaison to carry U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s message for restraint. Jordan shot down Iranian drones that violated its airspace, and Saudi Arabia, host to U.S. air defense systems, allowed the U.S. to engage from its territory, helping to thwart the barrage of Iranian strikes on Israel.
The strength of U.S. relationships with pivotal countries such as Japan, India, and several Middle Eastern and gulf countries will determine how future conflicts play out in this renewed era of empire builders. Washington policymakers will need a new framework for cooperation – one that focuses on shared responsibility, equal treatment of partners, and a nuanced appreciation of what these countries can and are willing to do in support of their shared interests.
Those interests are not always aligned as countries shift their positions based on perceived threats and economic opportunities. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia are heavily reliant on China markets, but also increasingly concerned about Beijing’s military expansionism. These “middle powers” often say they do not wish to choose between Washington and Beijing, but as tensions rise in the South China Sea, they may be forced to do so.
For now, a recent survey showed that there are no sharp, clear lines of support for the U.S., as a slim majority in the region now look more to China than the U.S., though most would rather not choose.
As stronger challenges mount to the familiar nation-state system that has prevailed since the end of World War II and the collapse of the Soviet Union, U.S. policymakers will need to operate within increasingly complicated webs of relationships, while the needs for cooperation grow. The United States, as powerful as it is economically and militarily, cannot be the sole guarantor of global security in the 21st century.
Cooperation with middle powers that have significant regional influence and growing military capabilities will be crucial to maintaining the nation-state system that has powered global growth and relative stability for nearly 80 years. Without them, aspiring empire builders in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran will continue to exercise outsized regional influence, and threaten to derail this progress.
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