Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX.
OPINION — President Trump’s Twitter announcement of the historic normalization of relations agreement between Israel and the UAE is dramatic and singular on many levels. It represents a HUGE achievement, only the 3rd such peace/diplomatic agreement between Israel and an Arab state, with the UAE now joining Egypt and Jordan in a similar accomplishment. This deal offers the opportunity to bring peace to a troubled region, which has bedeviled so many American Presidents. President Trump’s brokerage and strong support of this agreement also sends a strong message to other countries with equities in the Middle East – Iran, Saudi Arabia, the other GCC states (Oman and Bahrain are likely to follow suit), Syria, and Turkey – that he has placed both America’s and his own prestige on the line, and that America is very much a player in today’s modern version of Kipling’s ‘Great Game.’
The agreement between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the UAE’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed involved secret dealings over months to years, and involved other key participants, such as Israel’s Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, UAE’s Ambassador to the U.S., Yousef Al Otaiba, and senior advisor to President Trump, Jared Kushner. In particular, AMB Otaiba wrote an op-Ed – published by an Israeli newspaper - in June 2020 warning Israel against annexation of territory in the West Bank, writing instead of possible greater security, direct links, expanded markets, and growing acceptance of Israel, and that “normal is not annexation.” Lastly, the irony of Israel’s Mossad playing a diplomatic and intelligence role in a deal with the UAE – whereas in 2010, the Mossad was embarrassed by media revelations of its involvement in the Dubai assassination of Hezbollah official Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh – did not escape observers.
But the agreement has other, less-recognized historic antecedents. It hearkens to an earlier time in Israel’s existence, during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, when Israel had few allies and was surrounded – as now – by implacable enemies calling for its destruction. This led to the development of Israel’s ‘periphery doctrine,’ in which Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, aided by Israel’s able diplomats and the Mossad – the work of the late David Kimche comes to mind – forged both secret and formal diplomatic relationships with sub-Saharan African nations, Turkey, and [pre-1979] Iran. So in a sense, this week’s agreement represents Israel’s continuation and 21st-century modernization of its earlier periphery doctrine, as it faces deadly enemies in the region, such as Iran, with its existential threat to become a nuclear state.
The agreement sends a very powerful message to Iran, and it serves to isolate Iran diplomatically; it also represents a brilliant use of Israel’s soft power. But the agreement also sends a strong, sobering message to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, that the ‘Great Game’ is alive and well, and that America has roared back as the major player in the Middle East. It is partnering with successful states in a future-oriented, post-COVID world and Middle East, whereas President Putin’s Russia continues to ally with failed and rogue states in the Middle East and north Africa, such as Libya, Syria, and Iran.
President Trump has often been criticized – even by his GOP allies – and rightfully so, for his tweets and un-presidential comments with respect to the media, diplomacy, and intelligence. But this announcement by President Trump was truly ‘presidential,’ and accolades are in order for his (and America’s) leadership in this regard.
It would be easy to dismiss America’s leadership with respect to the Israel-UAE diplomatic deal, during a time of COVID-19, worldwide recession, racial/political tensions in the US, and a highly-contentious 2020 US Presidential Election. But President Trump has once again shown his unpredictability – which he prides himself on - and his steadfastness in brokering a truly historic diplomatic deal. For this, he deserves appropriate credit. But for President Trump, this deal has broader ramifications. If he can pull off an ‘August Surprise,’ then an ‘October Surprise’ – such as a nuclear deal with North Korea - becomes a bit more possible as well. Other adversarial leaders – Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, Syria’s Bashir al-Assad, and Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei – should carefully take note of President Trump’s resolve. In America, with its upcoming Democratic and Republican conventions, the 2020 election is going full-steam ahead —- “the game’s afoot!” But with his brokerage of the Israel-UAE Agreement, President Trump has shown that another sort of game – ‘The Great Game’ – is alive and well, and both he and America remain a force to be reckoned with. And it’s only August —- and October, with its many surprises, is just around the corner.
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