China is Courting Thailand. Here’s Why the U.S. Should Care.

By Jennifer Ewbank

Jennifer Ewbank, served as Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency for Digital Innovation from October 2019 until January 2024, where she led transformation of one the world’s most sophisticated and secure digital technology ecosystems.

OPINION/EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The strategic landscape of Southeast Asia is rapidly evolving, with China making significant inroads into a region where U.S. influence has been strong for well over a century.

A September 2024 article in Foreign Affairs called attention to the slow but steady, decline of U.S. influence and partnerships across much of Southeast Asia, despite numerous policy initiatives by administrations on both sides of the political aisle for decades.

Among the countries where this shift is most pronounced and least understood is Thailand, a nation with deep historical ties to the U.S. but now increasingly caught in the geopolitical tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing.

As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific, it is imperative for the U.S. to revitalize its partnership with Thailand, among other nations in Southeast Asia, not only to maintain influence but also to foster stability and protect freedom in a region critical to global security.

Thailand’s diplomatic relationship with the United States is our oldest in Asia, dating back to when the kingdom – then called Siam – became the first Asian nation to recognize American independence with the signing of the “Treaty of Amity and Commerce” in 1833.

Two decades later, Thailand ceased paying tribute to imperial China after more than a millennium, turned its interests to the broader world, and embraced its autonomy as a buffer state between the growing British and French empires.


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The historical bond between Thailand and the U.S. is underpinned by shared values, particularly sovereignty and independence—a concept embedded in Thailand’s very name, which translates to “land of the free.”

Among the many moments that reflected this natural affinity was King Mongut’s offer of war elephants to President Lincoln in 1861 to assist northern forces in the American Civil War. Over more recent decades, this relationship has been strengthened through a formal military alliance and numerous economic partnerships. Thailand has been a steadfast military ally, serving alongside the U.S. in numerous conflicts and conducting large-scale joint exercises that underscore its strategic importance.

However, building and maintaining partnerships with countries like Thailand is not without its challenges, as history and experience have demonstrated. The complex post-World War II political landscape in Thailand has been marked by a history of military coups d’etat, which complicates diplomatic engagement with the U.S. government.

Similarly, periodic tensions over human rights issues, such as freedom of speech, can strain a partnership which is otherwise rooted in common strategic objectives. These dynamics require a nuanced approach from the U.S., one that respects Thailand’s sovereignty while encouraging democratic governance and stability, though nuance has not been a key feature of US policy toward Thailand for many years.

At risk of overemphasizing cultural differences between the two countries, Thailand is a place where one can have hard conversations in private, while public criticism — the U.S. government’s preferred approach in recent decades — will close off future channels of communication. Rebuilding this waning partnership would require more time, engagement, and depth than the U.S. government – pulled in so many directions by so many pressing crises – has generally been able to devote.

Recent surveys indicate a broad decline in U.S. influence across Southeast Asia, with many countries, including Thailand, showing a preference for aligning with China if forced to choose between the two powers. And many countries in the region likely feel this is what they eventually must do. Choose.

This shift underscores the need for renewed and reinvigorated American engagement if we wish to keep our close friends and allies as partners whether in times of peace or conflict. Particularly in Thailand, where our two countries have shared a unique bond for more than two centuries, this trend should be a cause for concern about America’s image across the region.


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Thailand’s geopolitical and geographic positioning makes it a pivotal player in Southeast Asia. Politically aligned between China and the U.S., and maintaining constructive relationships with both countries, it serves as a strategic buffer and potential mediator. However, this stance also means that Thailand can easily pivot toward China if it perceives greater benefits from such an alignment, and in recent years, those potential benefits from Beijing have been significant. America’s public criticism of the kingdom, mentioned above and diplomatic tensions that have endured for decades, only makes Thailand’s move toward China, and away from the U.S., more likely. That is not in America’s long-term interests in a region where we need more, not fewer, allies.

On the economic front, China’s influence in Thailand is growing rapidly. As Thailand’s largest trading partner, China’s investments include infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which offer significant development opportunities but also increases Beijing’s leverage. While U.S. investment in Thailand has modestly increased over the past decade, it is nevertheless eclipsed by Chinese investments which account for a substantial portion of Thailand’s economic activity (which is increasing at a rapid pace).

Despite these challenges, Thailand remains an important military ally for the United States — one of only two formal treaty allies in the region — a partnership that Washington has at times, taken for granted. The longstanding treaty alliance has facilitated numerous joint military exercises aimed at enhancing regional security and interoperability between armed forces.

These alliances are vital not only for countering Chinese influence but also for ensuring stability amid rising tensions over territorial disputes in areas like the South China Sea.

This weakening of U.S.-Thailand relations mirrors a broader trend of declining American influence across Southeast Asia. Polls indicate a significant decline in regional support for U.S. alignment, signaling an urgent need for reengagement before these ties erode further.

Failing to strengthen U.S.-Thailand relations could have far-reaching consequences.

Economically, the U.S. risks losing ground to China in sectors critical to both countries, such as technology and infrastructure, reducing its leverage in shaping Thailand’s strategic decisions.


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Militarily, the shift could lead to diminished cooperation and a stronger Chinese presence in a region pivotal to Indo-Pacific security. And politically, a weakened U.S.-Thailand relationship will only further diminish U.S. influence across the region.

As tensions continue to rise in the Asia-Pacific region, strengthening ties with Thailand should be a priority for U.S. policymakers, as should building partnerships more broadly across Southeast Asia. By doing so, Washington can ensure that it retains a foothold in this strategically vital region while promoting stability, prosperity, and freedom, in the face of a rising wave of authoritarianism globally. The time is ripe for America to rekindle its partnership with Thailand—an endeavor that will require commitment, cultural literacy, empathy, and a clear understanding of both nations’ shared interests and challenges. It is not too late, but soon it may be.

As we navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, where U.S. attention and resources are stretched thin across multiple global hotspots, it is important that we do not lose sight of our longstanding allies, including Thailand. The future will require more, not fewer, partners, to maintain a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

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