Are We Positioned to Win the Race for AI Supremacy?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — In the high-stakes geostrategic race for artificial intelligence supremacy, the United States faces an unexpected adversary: its own government procurement system. While China rapidly pursues AI dominance through a coordinated whole-of-government approach, America’s federal acquisition process remains mired in procedures designed for a bygone era of hardware purchases and traditional defense contracting. And the stakes could not be higher.

As we approach the eventual development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—systems capable of human-level reasoning across multiple domains—the nation that achieves this breakthrough first will gain an unprecedented strategic advantage. This is not science fiction; it is an eventual reality that will reshape global power dynamics. The winner of this race will have the capability to revolutionize everything from economic modeling to weapons development, from cyber defense to scientific discovery. Yet America’s procurement system remains our national security community’s Achilles’ heel.

The Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR), while laudably designed to ensure fairness and accountability, has become a barrier to rapid innovation. Its rigid requirements reflect a risk-averse culture and create lengthy timelines that are fundamentally incompatible with the pace of technological change. While China can rapidly deploy new technologies through its military-civil fusion strategy and other means, U.S. government agencies often spend years navigating complex procurement processes even for simple capabilities.

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Special authorities and incremental reforms, though well-intentioned and appreciated, are simply insufficient to address this systemic challenge. We don’t need faster horses and buggies; we need the next generation fighter jet. The federal procurement system requires revolutionary change if we are to meet the demands of the digital age and win the race for AI with China and other hostile adversaries.

Consider the current landscape: Legacy defense contractors, expert at navigating bureaucratic requirements through years of experience and a wealth of resources, dominate government contracts. We need and appreciate these close partners in national security, but we also need broader perspectives. Smaller, innovative tech companies—often at the forefront of AI development—struggle to break through bureaucratic barriers. They lack information available only to those who already hold big government contracts, or they hesitate to invest the substantial resources needed even to bid on a contract. This misalignment of incentives and capabilities leaves America’s technological advantage vulnerable precisely when the U.S. national security enterprise needs it most.

China’s national digital strategy shows no such ambivalence. Through initiatives like “Building Digital China” and massive investments in advanced digital infrastructure, Beijing is executing a comprehensive plan to achieve global AI dominance by 2030 (a key pillar of their strategy to supplant the United States as the world’s leading superpower.) Their system ensures that every technological achievement, whether from academia, industry, or government, can be rapidly integrated into military and intelligence capabilities.

This situation requires urgent action. Every extra month an intelligence agency or the Department of Defense spends navigating outdated, labyrinthine procurement processes to acquire digital capabilities is a month our adversaries use to advance their own capabilities. It is a month that the U.S. national security enterprise cannot afford to lose. The race toward AGI adds another layer of criticality—whoever achieves this breakthrough first will gain a strategic advantage that may prove impossible to overcome. America has no time to waste.

What’s needed is a fundamental reimagining of how government procures technology. This transformation might include, among other changes:

• AI-Driven Procurement: Leverage AI itself to streamline acquisition processes, automate routine tasks, and provide real-time insights into contractor performance and market capabilities.
• Rapid Acquisition Pathways: Collapse traditional procurement timelines from years to months, or even weeks, without sacrificing oversight. My dream while a senior executive at the CIA was “two to two”: two years (current state) to two months or less.
• Innovation-Friendly Contracting: Make it easier for cutting-edge tech companies to compete for work with government while upholding necessary security standards.
• Cultural Transformation: Promote a culture that values intelligent risk-taking and innovation over rigid compliance. Winning should be the priority.
• International Collaboration: Facilitate closer technological cooperation with democratic allies, leveraging our collective innovation capabilities.

This transformation is not just about efficiency—it is about securing America’s future. In an era where digital capabilities increasingly impact global power dynamics, maintaining technological superiority is inseparable from our national security.

The choice before us is stark: either we radically reform our procurement system to meet the challenges of the digital age, or the national security community risks ceding technological leadership to authoritarian powers, much to the detriment of our country’s interests.

The implications extend beyond America’s borders.

As China exports its model of digital authoritarianism, and builds a growing bloc of digitally powered autocracies, the global balance between democratic and authoritarian governance hangs in the balance. America and its allies need to leverage our strategic advantages to win this competition and secure the future of freedom.

We do that by investing in our innovation ecosystem (unique in human history), developing stronger public-private partnerships, and building coalitions with like-minded countries who value freedom and human rights. Though often overlooked in these sweeping discussions of geostrategic issues, federal government procurement will either enable or frustrate efforts to win this technological competition.

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Transforming our national security procurement system is not just an administrative challenge—it is a strategic imperative that will impact who wins the AI race. Unless government can move at the speed of business to leverage the full potential of America’s dynamic innovation ecosystem, it will simply continue buying yesterday’s technology tomorrow, ceding leadership to the world’s first true digital autocracy.

Will it be a future of rising digital authoritarianism where AI serves as a means of societal control? Or will it be a future of digital freedom where AI uplifts humanity and protects freedom? Will America retain its leadership role on the world stage? Federal procurement practices have a hidden, but important, role to play in this grand competition.

The time for incremental change has passed. The American government needs a procurement revolution, and it needs it now. Our technological leadership, national security, and the future of democratic values depend on it.

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