After the Trump Attack, Fighting an Erosion of Trust

By Ellen McCarthy

Ellen McCarthy is Chairwoman and CEO of the Trust in Media Cooperative. She has over three decades of national security service in a variety of leadership roles that span numerous intelligence organizations, most recently serving as the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. She’s currently a senior fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard University.

EXPERT Q&A — The immediate aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania brought a flood of disinformation. As The Cipher Brief reported Monday, false narratives and conspiratorial speculation ran rampant, powered by a rush for information and – in many cases – a desire to spread variants on the truth that suited political views. The results included widely read stories suggesting that the Biden Administration had orchestrated the attack, and others claiming the entire episode had been a hoax concocted by the Trump Administration itself.

Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with Ellen McCarthy, CEO of the Trust In Media Cooperative and former Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, about the swell of misinformation, and whether it remains possible in such an environment to rebuild trust in media and the value of what McCarthy calls “quality information.”

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

The Cipher Brief: What was your reaction to the misinformation and conspiracy theories that ran amok after the shooting? Does it make it seem like this is an impossible problem to tackle?

McCarthy: Well, I’m not going to lie. There’s been plenty of times that I think the problem’s too big. I feel like I’m tilting at windmills half the time.

But I also think, more than ever, that there is demand for understanding what’s really going on.

We need to prove that if people understand what’s in the information they’re consuming, that they will make different choices. And I mean that at the end of the day, while there’s so many things you need to do to really work this issue, that’s the little first baby step we’re taking right now. If people understand what’s in their information, will they make different choices about what they consume.

And I really feel like what happened this weekend, you had a lot of people who were desperate to understand what was going on. And whether it was negligence on the part of some media outlets – I mean, for the first few hours we didn’t even know if he was OK – or that it was all being politicized super quickly, there was all this crazy conspiracy theory stuff out there.

The Cipher Brief: David Remnick, the New Yorker editor, said one of the issues is what he called “a sickening rush of accusation.” People feel like in a nanosecond they have to have a story and a narrative.

Ellen McCarthy: Yes. And people rushed to politicize all of this. So this was political violence, but it’s not even clear now that this was truly a politicized event. We still don’t understand what this guy’s motives were. In fact, the more I read about him, I’m not sure if we’ll ever figure it out, given that he clearly leans to the right, but he made donations to the left. So it’s not clear yet what his motivations were.

One of the first texts I got was from my mother, who was saying that this was (Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro) Mayorkas not protecting the (former) president. That was the first thing she said. And everybody was going down that rabbit hole, on the right and the left.

“This is Biden’s fault,” I heard people say. Or “we feel like this was staged” – right away. “This doesn’t feel right. This was staged.” And is that just where we are? As consumers of media, we want to see whether or not this is a right or left political issue. And yet that’s not what this is at all right now. It is political violence, but I’m not sure it’s a political issue

And it was amazing to me that even some senior leaders on the Hill were also trying to politicize this. It had to become a political event. Is it because that’s what their constituents and their viewership wanted to hear? Whereas saying the truth right now, which is “We really don’t know what’s going on,” that doesn’t sell?

I’m hoping that this may be an opportunity, because you have seen that President Biden pulled down all of his political marketing comms pieces, and Trump said he would do the same thing. Now, we’ll see today what really happens. Is this a turning point? Is this a place where maybe there’ll be some civility, some opportunity to take a breath? I’m hopeful.

The Cipher Brief: There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that people are really hungry for the information that matches their preexisting narrative. That is deeply concerning, because it seems like a lot of people were not seeking the truth.

McCarthy: I’ve said before, we’ve never really trusted the media as a country. But is there a base out there that is looking for quality information? I think there is. Of course, it’s not going to be the people that you’re describing, and that’s OK. But it’s more about, Is there a consumer base that wants to be able to get to information that meets certain standards, that meets certain expectations that they can use to live their lives?

And again, I look back at the intelligence community as an example. Nine times out of 10, I would go brief my boss and he or she did not want to hear what I had to say. And sometimes they would use it and sometimes they wouldn’t use it. But when they did take it, they knew that it was based on solid sourcing, structured analytic techniques, second or third party review. And they may use it and they may not. And so is there an environment outside of government that’s like that? Are there people like you and me that would love it if we could actually know where we could find out quickly what’s going on? And even if the “quickly” is, We don’t know yet. But I know the sourcing, I know the timeliness of the data because it’s got the Good Housekeeping seal of approval on it. And I can look at it and say, OK, they don’t know. Move on. I think there is a base that wants that, and that’s what I’m trying to prove. But it’s not the people on the fringes.

The Cipher Brief: One of the dangerous scenarios you’ve cited is that 24 hours before Election Day, some crazy deep-fake video goes out. And even if you have the apparatus or system that you’re talking about, it’s not enough time to counter it. How did this event impact your belief that such a system could work?

McCarthy: The reason we’re looking at election data right now is because it’s a topic that everyone cares about. So it’s something that whether you’re right or left or old or young, everybody’s interested in it. It’s not about proving that Biden is mentally unfit or Trump is a crazy man. Let’s pick a topic that everyone’s interested in. Let’s really focus on the operations piece of all of this, and let’s provide a tool to see what people do. It’s really just to see if there is this cadre of folks that are looking for more transparency in the information they’re consuming.

The data’s showing right now that if a big, deep-fake video came out the day before the election, people aren’t going to necessarily change who they vote for. We’re not seeing that they’re going to change their position.

But it continues to erode trust in our processes, in our organizations of democracy. And it’s not just government — it’s media, it’s law enforcement, it’s health, it’s science. And so it’s just going to be another thing that people are going to say, That’s crazy. We’re not going to believe it. And isn’t this all messed up?

And so going back to what happened [this weekend], the Secret Service is taking a lot of heat right now. Maybe some of it is rightful. I mean, I’ll say that. I look at it and think, OK, I have some questions. But it is just further sowing discontent in our institutions of democracy. And that’s what worries me. It’s not that a man was shot, it was all this conspiracy talk. It’s further eroding our trust and validation in the organizations that are here and keep us together. And that’s where I’m disheartened and that’s what worries me.

The Cipher Brief: What gives you hope?

McCarthy: Well, I have to say that in the last six months, there’s been little things that have given me hope. I think when Speaker of the House Mike Johnson supported funding for Ukraine, I thought that was a moment when he actually stood up and did what was right, even though his party wasn’t completely on board with that. I think the fact that right now President Biden and President Trump are saying, This is bad, we’re going to take down the rhetoric. We’re going to take a deep breath. That gives me hope. I actually wonder – you’re probably thinking, I’m just so naive – is this that time where we’re at this major turning point, or even a little turning point?

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