During 2018 and part of 2019, the DPRK’s Chairman Kim Jong-un, South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in, and U.S. President Donald Trump collectively made diplomatic history in a series of summits, which gave profound hope to the notion that the Korean Peninsula might finally – after 70 years of war – achieve durable peace and denuclearization. Who can forget their hopeful rhetoric, and the powerful symbols of President Trump and Chairman Kim stepping across the DMZ and their earlier meeting in Singapore, or of President Moon and Chairman Kim embracing – with their wives – on the summit of Mt. Paektu? The images stirred hope across the Korean Peninsula and further afield, in neighboring Japan, China, and Russia, that a new generation of leaders might have finally unlocked the key to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula.
But 2019 has brought new challenges, with a slowdown in diplomatic engagement, further weapons testing by North Korea, and other domestic and foreign policy challenges threatening to derail the bold initiatives of Chairman Kim, President Moon, and President Trump. With President Moon more than halfway through his 6-year term, and President Trump facing re-election in 2020, the window for further bold diplomacy may be narrowing. Success will require boldness on the part of all three leaders, and an understanding that President Moon’s idealism, President Trump’s instincts and flair, and Chairman Kim’s ruthlessness may not suffice to achieve their respective diplomatic goals. Now is the opportunity for the said three leaders to go beyond traditional, political approaches – each in their own way – and to demonstrate true boldness.
Chairman Kim emerged on the world stage in 2018 as an adroit statesman, showing poise, savvy and maturity well beyond his years. Chairman Kim is now seen as a responsible and rational statesman, who is moving his country forward with plans for economic development and reform. North Korea has not tested any nuclear weapons since 2017 and has achieved a strategic objective of de facto being recognized as a ‘responsible’ nuclear power.
But 2019 has also seen some very worrisome trends. North Korea’s recent missile tests, the unveiling of potential new submarine capabilities, and its increased activities in cyber warfare (as well as theft of intellectual property and hacking of financial institutions) suggest that Chairman Kim has embraced a shift from strategic patience and nuclear opacity, to a form of strategic ruthlessness. Rather than being seen as a mere ‘back to Byungjin’ strategy, Chairman Kim’s recent policy shift continues to evolve in a manner that potentially raises the risks of future diplomatic and military instability on the Korean Peninsula.
Nobody could fault President Moon’s idealism, soaring rhetoric, and desire for peace on the Korean Peninsula. This can be seen in his embrace of Chairman Kim as a legitimate negotiating partner and leader, and the symbolism of their meetings in 2018 was both moving and powerful. President Moon sees himself and South Korea as possessing a broader, historic role in leading the way to peace on the Korean Peninsula. President Moon’s use of language and words to convey hope are unparalleled. He spoke – in a stirring address to the Russian Duma in 2018 – of his belief that “our friendship will be able to open wide the boundless possibilities of Eurasia.” President Moon spoke of how he too, when young, “used to ask myself the meaning of human beings, nature, history and life” after reading the great works of Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, and Chekhov, and how “remarkable descriptions of the dignity and spirit of human beings imprinted the importance of spiritual values on us who are living in a material civilization.”
He further outlined his desire to see the Trans-Siberian Railroad connected through Pyongyang and all the way to Busan, on the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula. These are not the words of a typical politician. President Moon has spoken eloquently of his desire for reunification, touching upon the passions, emotions, and humanity of all Koreans. But rhetoric and even symbolism alone cannot be enough. Currently, President Moon finds himself caught up in a different and more tangled sort of history, between Korea and its former occupier Japan, regarding trade relations, symbols, nationalism, and political cooperation. This tension between his idealism and the everyday, messy political terrain of domestic South Korean politics and its nascent nationalism, threatens to undo President Moon’s earlier diplomatic successes in 2018, and to derail his dream of peace and reunification on the Korean Peninsula.
President Trump came to office in 2016 as a most atypical politician, having been a successful real-estate and reality TV billionaire, who has written famously of his instinct and passion for transactional, one-on-one, business-like relationships with other world leaders. Widely criticized, his approach to dealing with Chairman Kim has brought historic hope and initial achievement to a diplomatic challenge which had bested the efforts of his predecessors.
President Trump understood the value of symbolism in their historic 2018 Singapore summit, as well as in his remarkable steps across the DMZ in June 2019. His approach was untraditional and rather different, relying upon devices such as an exchange of letters, tweeting, and even showing Chairman Kim a video during the 2018 Singapore summit. For these approaches, President Trump deserves appropriate credit. But recently, he has faltered, losing the momentum and timing, especially with respect to his powerfully-symbolic June 2019 DMZ visit.
Trump’s correct instincts cannot succeed alone on their own merits. Diplomacy with the DPRK requires patience, strategy, and detailed follow-through. The recent departure of President Trump’s hawkish national security advisor John Bolton offers hope of returning to an earlier-outlined policy (by Special Envoy Stephen Biegun in a January 2019 speech at Stanford University), of sequential progress towards denuclearization, a peace agreement, and improvement in U.S.-North Korean diplomatic relations. But given President Trump’s increasing pre-occupation with his 2020 re-election campaign, the window for diplomatic achievement regarding North Korea is fast narrowing. President Trump has the opportunity to seize the initiative. But he needs to act quickly, and careful, detailed and patient diplomatic follow-through will be key.
This is really a tale of three unique leaders, and of their egos, passions, and sense of history. It is also a tale of two cities – Seoul and Pyongyang – and of a rare opportunity to achieve lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. But sadly, President Moon’s stirring rhetoric, President Trump’s bold instincts, and Chairman Kim’s ruthlessness may not be enough to get the job done. This would rather require Chairman Kim, President Moon, and President Trump to “go big,” and to strive harder to attain peace on the Korean Peninsula, to achieve [eventual] denuclearization, and to further economic development in North Korea.
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