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The Long Arc Of American Power

OPINION — “We [the U.S.] began as a sliver of a country and next thing you know we're a continental power, and we did not do that primarily through [...] More

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Ruling Venezuela with a 2,000 Mile Hammer is Not Likely to End Well

EXPERT OPINION — Rule by proxy just isn’t as simple as the Trump Administration wants to make it sound. While the long-term goals of the [...] More

Why Labeling Muslim Brotherhood “Chapters” as Terrorist Groups Is Problematic

OPINION — The White House this past November issued a Presidential action statement designating certain Muslim Brotherhood “chapters” as terrorist [...] More

Uber Krysha: How Russia Turns Crime into Power—and Poison

OPINION — Current discussion of Russian "hybrid warfare" tends to revolve around concepts like disinformation, proxy militias, cyber operations, [...] More

Iran’s Crumbling Revolutionary Facade: How Today’s Protests Could Reshape the Region in 2026

EXPERT OPINION — I am closely watching the growing size and momentum of protesters across Iran’s cities, rural areas, and pious communities who are [...] More

Now Comes the Hard Part in Venezuela

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Now comes the hard part in Venezuela. Dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife are gone but the regime is still in power. Most [...] More

Maduro and Noriega: Assessing the Analogies

Asked if there were any restraints on his global powers, [President Trump] answered: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s [...] More

Agentic AI and the “Human-in-the-Loop” Luxury in Modern Defense

THE IRON TRIANGLE — Welcome to the inaugural edition of “The Iron Triangle”, my new Cipher Brief column that serves the three pillars of modern [...] More

Iran’s Supreme Leader Should Listen to the People

EXPERT OPINION — The Iranian people are saying they want new leadership. And it’s not too hard to understand why so many merchants, university [...] More

I've Tracked Terrorist Networks for Decades. I've Never Seen Anything Like 764.

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — In 2021, a fifteen-year-old in a small Texas town started something from his bedroom. He’d dropped out of school. He spent his [...] More

High Risk in Venezuela—To What End?

OPINION — “I knew the possible danger. It was a very dangerous operation. It was amazing that we had a few injured, but all are in good shape right [...] More

Human Agency in a Technology-Mediated World

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Occasionally, a speech does more than mark a leadership transition or outline institutional priorities. It captures, with [...] More