This is happening as a new director-general takes over as head of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI). Lieutenant-General Asim Munir’s role as head of the ISI is an important one strategically in the Pakistan-U.S. relationship.
The U.S. will be looking to see whether Munir’s appointment will mean business as usual with regard to ISI’s cooperation in rooting out terrorists, or whether Munir will use his role to position Pakistan as a more cooperative partner for the U.S. on that front.
The Cipher Brief tapped it's network of experts for their thoughts on the path forward between the U.S. and Pakistan.
BACKGROUND:
- Asim Munir's previous post as the head of Pakistan's Military Intelligence reflects a long-standing tradition of the country's tendency to fill the head ISI post with a high-ranking lieutenant-general of the Pakistan Army.
- Munir's appointment comes at an increasingly tense time in U.S.-Pakistan relations. In September the Trump administration suspended $300 million in funding to Islamabad for what the U.S. government has deemed as Pakistan's unwillingness to take sufficient action against terrorists in the region.
- Earlier this year an additional $500 million of the so-called Coalition Supports Funds (CSF) to Pakistan was cut bringing the total amount withheld to $800 million.
- Pakistan’s assistance as an ally in the war on terror has been limited. While Pakistan’s military efforts against the Pakistani Taliban have been praised by U.S. officials, their efforts in combatting the Haqqani Network, or Afghan Taliban have been negligible – straining the U.S.-Pakistan relationship even further.
- The Haqqani Network has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. The formal designation stems from the group being linked to numerous high-profile attacks on U.S. and foreign personnel in Afghanistan as well as the assault on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul in 2011.
- Last month, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Pakistan with hopes of a way to “reset the relationship” after contentious disagreements over Pakistan’s efforts to fight terrorism in the region.
General Stanley McChrystal (Ret.), Former Commander, ISAF
“The U.S-Pakistan relationship needs a lot of work. The relationship has been complicated since 1947. Moving forward the U.S. also needs to consider Pakistan’s relationship with China. If we push Pakistan aside for their 'lies and deceit' and further fracture our relationship with distrust, the further we enable China to reign Pakistan in as a part of its one belt one road strategy. We need to maintain our relationship but also be candid. I’ve learned that not engaging with a nation or with its leadership doesn’t pay off.”
See also: China pulls Pakistan further into its economic orbit
Pakistan and the United States have fundamentally disagreed over Afghanistan since the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989. As such, both country’s strategies in the region have been misaligned.
Pakistan has repeatedly stressed its desire for a politically negotiated settlement to the current hostilities in Afghanistan.
Kevin Hulbert, Former CIA Chief of Station
"We have been in non-combat operations for years in Afghanistan already, so it is clear we have no plans to fight to the finish, whatever that “finish” might look like. So, instead, everyone recognizes that the end game in Afghanistan is going to have to be some sort of a negotiated settlement with the relevant stakeholders to include the current Afghan government, other political parties, the Taliban, and yes, Pakistan. And within the Pakistan government decision making, the military always looms large and ISI is an important part of the military. If Pakistan were to think Afghanistan was moving in a direction that was against their national interests, then you would have the destabilizing factor of the Pakistan government actively working against any US-Taliban-Afghanistan negotiated settlement, so you want Pakistan to have a seat at the table in some shape or form."
Withholding funds from Pakistan is not a new U.S. strategy in the region. For many years, the Obama administration withheld CSF funding from Islamabad in hopes of persuading Pakistan to change its behavior toward the Taliban and the Haqqani network.
One of several elements of the strained U.S.-Pakistan relationship is United States' reliance on Pakistan for air and ground routes for supplies to U.S. forces in Afghanistan which, if rendered inaccessible, would be catastrophic in the U.S. fight against the Afghan Taliban.
Vice Admiral Mike LeFever (Ret.), Former Director, Strategic Operational Planning, NCTC
"Mike Lefever, Former Director of Strategic Operational Planning, NCTC
“I believe there will not be a significant change in our relationship for the foreseeable future. Our policy of public criticism of Pakistan, along with the suspension of security assistance, has been detrimental to our ability to keep a line of dialogue open, especially with the Pakistani Military and ISI, both influential players in terms of U.S. interests in the region. That being said, every effort to keep a line of dialogue open is critical –even in the most stressful of times, which we are certainly in, between the U.S. and Pakistan.”
LOOKING AHEAD: As Asim Munir enters his role as ISI chief, there are no signs that indicate a change in the relationship concerning Pakistan's involvement in neighboring Afghanistan. Experts agree that it will be important for the United States to clearly communicate its strategic objectives and hopes for its future relationship with Pakistan.
- With analysis by Sonny Santistevan
