Beijing’s “Great Wall of Sand” in the South China Sea is likely to expand: a recent report in the South China Morning Post unveiled China’s intention to turn Scarborough Shoal into another island military base.
Observations by U.S. Navy vessels suggest China has been conducting survey work around the shoal, which lies roughly 200km/125 miles off of the coast of the Philippines. Island building at Scarborough Shoal is especially contentious given the ongoing UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) ownership dispute between the Philippines and China. The Permanent Court of Arbitration’s decision, expected in May or June, is likely to side with the Philippines and would be the first successful court ruling against Chinese island building activities.
Scarborough Shoal’s importance can be explained along historic and strategic lines. The shoal, which is 470 nautical miles from China and only 125 from the Philippines, was the location of a standoff between the two countries in 2012 that ended with China gaining de facto control from the Philippines.
Strategically, Scarborough Shoal would provide China with its largest island base and link the network of air coverage it has slowly been building in the South China Sea. A Chinese base on the shoal allows China to extend the range of its aircraft and forward radar stations.
If China moves ahead in the face of a legal finding for the Philippines, two important implications become clear. First, acting in spite of an legal ruling would demonstrate Beijing’s disregard for international arbitration in South East Asia. Second, it would draw the U.S. closer to a potential scenario where it will have to choose between upholding its newly reinvigorated alliance obligations to the Philippines or abandoning them. Given previous failures in dissuading China from island building activities, there is little reason to believe the court ruling will dissuade Beijing if its mind is already made up.
Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
