The United States has enjoyed unchallenged dominance in the space domain for years, but it appears that time has come to an end. China has been increasing its space activities, which will have strategic consequences for the U.S. The Cipher Brief spoke with Bruce MacDonald, a former White House National Security Council official, about the military applications of China’s space program. He says that, while there is a definite competition in this arena, the conflicting interests between the two countries does not have to result in actual conflict.
The Cipher Brief: How has China’s space program changed and advanced over the last 10 years? How do you expect it to change moving forward?
Bruce MacDonald: China’s program has improved both quantitatively and qualitatively, launching more satellites with more advanced capabilities each succeeding year. Many of these advances would be expected from an economically strong nation, but some are quite worrisome. In particular, they have repeatedly tested anti-satellite (ASAT) systems, recently demonstrating capabilities that would threaten even high altitude U.S. early warning satellites.
Going forward, we can expect China to grow its space capabilities in ways that meet its national security objectives. This would include steps such as having its own complete GPS-like satellite constellation, more satellites for both military and civilian long distance communications, more advanced intelligence satellites, and more advanced ASAT systems. As Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper noted last year, "Chinese and Russian military leaders understand the unique information advantages afforded by space systems and services and are developing capabilities to deny access in a conflict."
TCB: What are the military implications of China’s space program? How does China use its space assets to support military or intelligence operations? How do you see this changing in the future?
BM: An important Chinese strategic objective is to make it riskier for the United States to introduce and sustain substantial military power – in particular, aircraft carrier battle groups - to defend Taiwan and other allies near China, especially during a crisis. For China to target U.S. carriers with anti-carrier missiles, it needs location information that satellites can provide.
China also would benefit from eavesdropping satellites picking up radio and other communications intelligence, and early-warning satellites to detect U.S. missile launches, making China more capable militarily. All indications are that China recognizes the benefits of space for U.S. military capabilities and its own, so we should expect to see greater Chinese emphasis on military space going forward.
TCB: What effect has China’s space program had on strategic relations with other nations in Asia, if any? Has increased Chinese activity in space provoked reactions from other Asian nations, and what does that mean for the region as a whole?
BM:I see four major effects of China’s growing space capabilities on its Asian neighbors. First, it conveys a message of an increasingly powerful nation capable of using sophisticated weaponry to pursue its national objectives. Along with its growing assertiveness about territorial disputes, other Asian nations (some U.S. allies) are increasingly uneasy about Chinese intentions and look more earnestly to the U.S. for reassurance and protection. Second, this uneasiness urges the U.S. to step up its space and related measures to reassure its allies and others of U.S. steadfastness in the region. Third, China’s active civilian space program, in a non-threatening but politically powerful way, reinforces perceptions of China as an advanced military power. Finally, China’s growing power and assertiveness have led countries like India and Japan to put more emphasis on their own military space programs.
TCB: What does an increased Chinese presence in space mean for the United States? Is there a competition between the two nations in regards to dominance in the space domain, and how could that affect their relationship?
BM: This increased Chinese space presence means that the days of unchallenged U.S. space supremacy are over and probably have been for a few years now. The new challenge is to ensure that U.S. military forces can continue to rely upon a functioning and resilient space infrastructure sufficient to meet our military and economic needs. This will require maintaining a sufficient space advantage based on innovative technology, infrastructure, and strategic planning.
Inevitably, this means that there will be competition, though it is important to remember that U.S. and Chinese security requirements are not the same. The U.S. has global security commitments with allies around the world who look to the U.S. for protection and leadership, while China’s strategic interests, though growing, are not global in scope. Conflicting interests do not have to lead to conflict, which both countries have strong incentives to avoid.
U.S. and Chinese space security interests are not completely antagonistic, so diplomatic steps to reduce miscommunication, reduce uncertainty, and promote mutual benefit in space also have a role to play. Diplomacy can work in concert with smart military planning to promote U.S. and allied security interests and a more stable space environment. The key is assuring the information that U.S. space assets generate and transmit to our forces around the world is not seriously disrupted even in conflict.
