For the first time in Taiwan’s history, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) controls both the Presidency and the Parliament, and that development has all eyes focused on China, because the DPP leans in favor of independence from the mainland.
Tsai Ing-wen won the election with 56 percent of the vote, making her the first female President of Taiwan. Even more remarkable, the DPP took 68 of the 113 seats in parliament compared to the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Party’s 35.
While the presidency and the parliament will be unified in an outright majority, “her party’s own internal politics may prove to be difficult for Tsai,” Mike Chinoy told The Cipher Brief last week. “Tsai could face pressure from more extreme pro-independence voices in her own camp advocating a more confrontational approach to Beijing.”
This relationship with China has the international community on edge. “The return of the DPP to the leadership of Taiwan is a troubling prospect for China,” said John West, Executive Director of the Asian Century Institute. Under President Xi Jinping, China is becoming increasingly nationalistic, and “national sovereignty is perhaps the hottest issue. And nothing is more critical to China's sovereignty than reunification with Taiwan,” said West.
In a weekend press conference, the President-elect Tsai said both sides "have a responsibility to do their utmost to find mutually acceptable ways to interact ... and ensure no provocation and no surprises."
In a curt response, Chinese state run media urged Tsai to be cautious. “If there is no peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan’s new authority will find the sufferings of the people it wishes to resolve on the economy, livelihood and its youth will be useless as looking for fish in a tree,” the Xinhua news agency warned. The statement essentially ignored how domestic issues, not mainland China, played a big role in the voters’ decisions. What, if any, steps China might take in response to the election remains up for debate. Due to the economic interdependence of the two parts of the “One China” doctrine, economic sanctions would likely adversely affect the mainland as well. Additionally, taking too strong a stance against Taiwan could cause President Xi to permanently lose favor with the Taiwanese people, but hesitating in his response could make him appear weak in the face of those in Beijing.
Although it is in no one’s interest for conflict between Taiwan and China, President Xi may prioritize appearing strong in the name of national unity, which could have grave consequences for other neighbors and the U.S. Tsai will assume the presidency on May 20, allowing time for a cross strait dialogue before she takes office.
The official Xinhua news agency also warned, "If there is no peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's new authority will find the sufferings of the people it wishes to resolve on the economy, livelihood and its youth will be as useless as looking for fish in a tree.”
China's Foreign Ministry, in its reaction to her victory, said "There is only one China in the world, the mainland and Taiwan both belong to one China and China's sovereignty and territorial integrity will not brook being broken up," the ministry added. "The results of the Taiwan region election does not change this basic fact and the consensus of the international community."
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
