China's 19th Party Congress begins Wednesday in Beijing. The Congress occurs every five years, and is an opportunity to understand the Chinese leadership's vision for the direction of the country. 2017's Congress is slated to be Xi Jinping's show, as he solidifies his power and appoints his political allies to the Standing Committee of the Politburo. The Cipher Brief spoke with John McLaughlin, the former Acting Director of the CIA to understand Xi's intentions and China's priorities in the coming years.
The Cipher Brief: The Party Congress usually illuminates China’s priorities for the future in terms of its economy, domestic politics, and its international standing. Have the past five years achieved what the last Congress set out to do?
John McLaughlin: The last Party Congress in 2012 came in the wake of some major corruption scandals. Accordingly, the Congress, which brought President Xi to power, authorized him to tighten party discipline and further centralize party decision-making. Cracks were also beginning to appear in China’s vaunted economic model, and Xi was also encouraged to strengthen the economy and China’s international influence.
Xi has succeeded on some of this, and other aspects remain a work in progress.
He has certainly centralized decision-making and tightened the leadership’s grip on the party — or at least his personal grip. Xi has done this mainly through an extensive anti-corruption campaign — no issue has more political salience in China than corruption. Although the party asserted last year that more than a million of its 89 million members had been probed, there is still great skepticism within the party and the public that this has successfully rooted out corrupt practices.
On the economy, Xi and the party are still struggling. Chinese growth, hovering around the 7 percent range, is the lowest in 25 years. The old model of cheap labor producing cheap exports is wearing thin. China’s model is a victim of its own success as increasing prosperity has pushed up wages, raised manufacturing costs, and made businesses less competitive.
Xi has also shied away from cutting deeply into the big state-owned enterprises that make up more than 30 percent of the economy and are the source of much corruption.
TCB: How have the last five years shaped Xi Jinping’s Presidency? To what extent will Xi try to cement both his rule and his legacy at the Congress?
McLaughlin: Despite whatever problems remain unsolved, Xi is probably the most personally powerful Chinese leader since Mao. He has gained control of all levers of power and has put forward large transformational ideas on the international stage that raise China’s profile and influence.
Among these are: the Asia Infrastructure Investment bank (the U.S. has stayed out but most U.S. allies are participating); his “one-belt-one road” program to connect China to the Middle East and Europe through a network of rail, air, road, and port facilities; and his Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a trade agreement accounting for more than 30 percent of global GDP and half the world’s population. This is moving into the vacuum created by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP).
TCB: Some have indicated that Xi is may try to extend his rule. Do you expect Xi to attempt to stay longer than his two terms? What signs might we see at the Congress that indicate if he will or will not? If not, what do you see as his succession plan?
McLaughlin: We may not see an overt move by Xi to stay beyond the traditional two-term limit. One sign that he is however laying the groundwork for that would be if he manages to get himself enshrined in the constitution by name for his “thought” or “theory”; the only predecessors so honored are Mao as the modern country’s founder and Deng Xiaoping, as its first great economic reformer.
TCB: China has worked to demonstrate that it is now ready to be a global leader. How much do you expect it to present itself as a rival to the United States?
McLaughlin: It is a rival of the United States and wants to limit U.S. influence and access in Asia in particular — while maintaining an overall atmosphere of cooperation. Xi has pushed a restructuring of the military aimed at more joint operations and a strengthening of its capabilities in cyber, electronic warfare and mobility — all of this aimed at strengthening its ability to limit access and maneuver by the U.S. and other powers in the Asian theater.
Meanwhile, China has taken some tentative steps to assume broader leadership responsibilities by extensive participation in UN peacekeeping, expansion of port visits and facilities outside Asia, and endorsement of climate accords.
All this said, China is really still feeling its way as a global leader and remains more intently focused on its domestic stability and prosperity.
TCB: U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China later in the fall. How does the Congress set the scene for that visit, if at all?
McLaughlin: The Congress sets the stage for the Trump visit only insofar as Xi will want to meet the U.S. President as head of a unified party that fully supports his leadership, and Xi will be working to ensure that he can portray to Trump his image of strength, control and confidence.
