EXPERT INTERVIEWS – As the world digests the recent blizzard of developments involving the war in Ukraine – the Trump administration’s plans to end the conflict, its negotiations with Russia, and the sidelining for the moment of Ukraine and other European nations from the process – most of the attention has been on the White House, the recent Munich Security Conference, and now on the Saudi capital Riyadh, where American and Russian negotiators met Tuesday for the first time since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Those talks, described in positive terms by both sides, appear to herald the beginning of a new chapter in U.S.-Russia relations and a worrisome moment for the resistance in Ukraine. In the wake of these events, The Cipher Brief turned its attention to Ukraine itself, and to a delegation of Cipher Brief experts who have been in the country while these major developments have played out.
Former CIA senior officials Ralph Goff and Glenn Corn have traveled in Ukraine over the past week – in the capital, Kyiv, in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, and at various frontlines as well – and they spoke to Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly about how the latest news has been received in the country. They described a state of deep unease and anxiety among Ukrainians they met; Goff described a “well-founded fear” of what Russian President Vladimir Putin will do in Ukraine after any deal, and Corn added that people in the country are "very concerned with the fact that Russia will probably make another play to take more territory or take their sovereignty from them in a few years.”
The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Kelly: What is your impression from the Ukrainian perspective on the ground, given everything in the headlines and all the back and forth about how a deal might be coming together?
Goff: There's a plethora of statements coming out from the Trump administration now. And yes, it has caused a lot of consternation here in Ukraine. If you think the Europeans are freaked out, the Ukrainians are freaked out as well. But this is vintage President Trump. He says what's on his mind. If I have any criticism for him at this stage, it's just that the message from his team needs to be better coordinated. But in the meantime, what we have been telling our Ukrainian colleagues is wait for the actions, not the words.
Kelly: What are your Ukrainian colleagues telling you?
Goff: There's outrage, shock, disappointment. But on the other hand, I've had a lot of Ukrainians come up and say things like, Well, of course he'd be interested in minerals [the Trump administration demand that Ukraine give the U.S. a share of its mineral wealth in exchange for U.S. aid]. It's fair. It allows us to pay for the largesse, as opposed to just being recipients of free aid. The Ukrainians are a very proud people. They don't like the idea of being a debtor nation. They like the idea of being able to pay their way.
Others have also expressed quietly, behind the scenes, Look, the war's gone on a long time. We don't have the manpower to continue indefinitely. We're meeting with some people who do polling to get more details, but anywhere between 60-70% of the population want the war to stop.
Now that said, they don't want it just halted under any conditions. They're looking for their sovereignty, to salvage what they can of their territory. And frankly there's an element where they want to see Putin punished. But there are people here who look at it from a realistic point of view and understand that all those things are going to have to be subject to – what I would say, a range of outcomes.
Listen to ‘Dispatches from Munich’ with General David Petraeus (Ret.) as he lays out Ukraine’s options while discussions take place between the U.S. and Russia on how to end the war – exclusively on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel on YouTube
Kelly: You were there with The Cipher Brief and with General David Petraeus last September. People were already whispering about what a deal or a settlement might look like. They were always really focused on the security guarantees that they needed with any deal. Is that what you're still hearing on the streets?
Corn: They're very concerned with the fact that Russia will probably make another play to take more territory or to take their sovereignty from them in a few years. And by the way, [the Ukrainians] didn't start this war. They didn't ask for this war. They've done a great job protecting themselves and their country, but they want it to end, and justly so – they want a fair ending. They don't want Putin to walk away with the victory or to be rewarded for what he's done. And in terms of guarantees for security, they're open to different ideas, but they are definitely looking for someone to help them protect their sovereignty and to stop Putin from doing this in the future, or whoever replaces Putin in Russia in the future, because they have a long history and ugly history, like some of their neighbors do, with Russia's aggressive behavior.
One thing I'd say on the comments coming out of the Munich Security Conference and from Washington: I think there's a lot of confusion. Some things that are being said are welcome. For example, when the vice president mentioned military force would be on the table, I think they liked to hear that. And as Ralph said, when it comes to the mineral deal, almost everybody I've spoken with has said, Yes, we're open to that, we actually like the idea. The message we keep getting is: We want direct U.S. involvement here. We want Americans on the ground. If it's not going to be US troops, we want U.S. businesses here. We need them here. We need the investment and we need the experience and mentorship from American companies and American leaders in the business world in reconstructing our country, which has been devastated by this war.
Kelly: Both of you have extensive experience in Russia. It seems to me without the right security guarantees, it is highly likely that Russia and Putin may be back at some point. Is it realistic to think that? Is it just fear, or is it actually reality?
Goff: It's reality mixed with fear, a well-founded fear. The outcome of this deal will be only the first phase — whatever stops the guns from firing. The next phase will be, what do Putin and his team do as a follow-up? Personally, I think they'll reinvigorate their activities in the gray zone across Europe. I think they'll look to keep the situation stable – they have to be careful, so they don't wreck the deal. In the meantime, what also remains to be seen is the economic cost in Russia. And frankly, I think as the dust settles, if there's a ceasefire and peace, the Russian people will start focusing more on their economy as opposed to the war itself. And when they start to realize the extent of the damage to their economy, I think Vladimir Putin may have some explaining to do. In the end, the only settlement that'll work is a settlement where both sides are unhappy. There'll be problems for the Russians, and there’ll be problems for the Ukrainians.
Kelly: Glenn, how do you feel about that question? Is it realistic to think that Putin will be back if there isn't a deal reached that has robust security guarantees?
Corn: Absolutely. His record to date has been one of using aggression to get what he wants, or intimidation. And no matter what happens, even if there's a ceasefire tomorrow, there's going to be a continued use of active measures of covert influence, covert action in Ukraine to try and direct things in the way that Putin wants. There's no doubt about that. And the Ukrainians are very well aware of that, and they're going to need help protecting themselves from that. I think that's one reason why they say one of the most important things that can happen after fighting stops is for some investment and financial assistance from the West, from the U.S., to help their economy.
Kelly: Both of you were with me when we attended a meeting with leaders at the SBU [the Ukrainian Security Service] who were giving a rather sobering readout about Russian activities there, Russian activities to influence how the Ukrainians feel about this war, to keep reminding them of the cost, maybe in efforts to get them to give up.
Goff: The Ukrainians are aware of the cost. What about the West? How many accidental anchor drags will the West tolerate in the Baltic Sea, destroying critical undersea infrastructure? Putin takes his cues from the West, and if there are no responses to that, you can guarantee – I agree with Glenn — that when the guns go silent, Putin will find ways to attack the West from the gray zone. That stuff, I think, we'll see no matter what settlement comes. We'll have to double our vigilance there because of the lack of a Western response today.
Listen to Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management as he tells Cipher Brief COO Brad Christian how European leaders could be using seized Russian assets in ‘Dispatches from Munich’ only on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel.
Kelly: You’ve just come from Odesa, which is very close to one of the major front lines of this war. What is the sense in Odesa? People obviously would like to have an end to the fighting, but is the fight still in them?
Corn: The fight is still in the people. And I can tell you, we were on the street Sunday morning, we were walking down the street with our Ukrainian friends, and an air raid went off and people were pushing their carriages, and out for Sunday shopping or having coffee. Nobody went to the bunkers. And I asked the Ukrainian guy we were with, What do you think we should do? He said, Go have a beer. So, the fight is here. They're still resilient. They're ready to fight for their country. They are not going to surrender. They want an end to the war, but they don't want to give up their sovereignty.
Goff: When we were up in Sumy, which is very close to the front, and visiting hospitals there with a volunteer group that was delivering medical assistance, we went to this one hospital that's been hit by missiles several times. It was attacked in the early days of the war and destroyed. The staff, after a month of occupation, started rebuilding. After they largely finished the rebuild, the Russians hit it with a missile again, so they had to rebuild it another time. They're up there now within 15-20 kilometers of the border, and they're continuing to rebuild. They're looking to the future. They have one eye cocked on Russia and one eye on the West, and they're doing everything they can to try and rebuild and improve the lives of their people.
The mayor there was bragging about the fact that they were finally going to open school in March after three years, because they finally have a school that has, thanks to the work of Western aid organizations, has proper shelter underneath it.
Kelly: We all have seen firsthand the technology development that's been happening there since this war began. When you're thinking about the future for Ukraine and you're seeing the technological innovation that's been happening there, are Ukrainians hopeful that this is a solid future for them? And maybe this is one of their own, self-created security guarantees?
Corn: Yes, and they are looking for ways to promote and build their economy after the war. We've heard many of them talk about being a producer of arms, high-tech stuff. I would again say, for members of the administration and for the American people, this is a country we want on our side. We don't want them on the other side, because they are very good at what they're doing. They're very talented, and unfortunately, they've had to be very talented at killing people to protect their country. We don't want this country on the wrong side of the United States. We need them as partners.
Kelly: Your trip is not over yet, but takeaways from both of you so far?
Goff: Resilience is the key word here. We've seen it everywhere, at all different levels. The initial shock of these latest political developments will wear off as the details come out. Through it all, there will be resilience.
Frankly, I take some pleasure in the outrage in Europe, because they're stepping up. For the first time, the Europeans are going to have to, as we say, put on their big-boy pants and take charge. I think to date, the Europeans have shown varying degrees of commitment to the fight here. But definitely, they need to show more. They need to be prepared to take on a bigger burden, particularly if the United States decides not to take the leading role, because peace is important, but rebuilding will be even more important. And that will be, I think, largely a European show.
Corn: As Ralph said, this is the time for the Europeans to step up. But we also have to understand that if we're going to ask the Europeans to step up and carry their full share, that we have to let them make decisions sometimes and step back. We're not always going to be the ones that get to make the final call. Because we often have a hard time with that. I always give the example of Turkey. The Turks do things and then people from Washington get upset. But they do things, for example in Syria, that are in our best interest. And they did it themselves, with their money and their influence and their capabilities. When that happens, we shouldn't automatically react and say, we should have made the decision. We should say, OK, you're our partners. You made a decision. We support you. And we're going to have to live with that because we can't be the world's policeman. But we need partners to help police the world.
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