The beginning of the end of ISIS’s dominance over the Sunni Arab region of Iraq is at hand, following the Iraqi security forces’ clearance of ISIS from most of Fallujah, the first Iraqi city to fall to the terrorist group. Only one major Iraqi city remains in ISIS’ hands: Mosul. While it will be a tough nut to crack, extensive pressure all along ISIS’ frontier in Syria and Iraq could produce an easier-than-anticipated victory. Much will depend on whether the Obama Administration will increase its military forces in the anti-ISIS fight, take more risks, push the ‘rules-of-engagement’ envelope, and accelerate the full court press. Certainly after the Orlando attack, complacency about an ISIS “in retreat” is unwise.
Still, within a year, ISIS will likely be essentially cleared from Iraq. The question then will be, can Iraq learn from the errors that fueled ISIS’ rise and, in particular, move towards a cross-sectarian, cross-religious concept of the nation? Much will depend on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who has two more years in office before new parliamentary elections. But he cannot wait. Iraq’s problems are immediate, requiring responses even before ISIS is eradicated.’
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