Russia Walks the Line Between War and Peace in the Baltics

Posted: March 19th, 2017

By Piret Pernik

Piret Pernik is a Research Fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security. Her research focuses on the political and strategic aspects of cybersecurity. Before joining ICDS, she worked at the Policy Planning Department of the Estonian Ministry of Defence. In 2009-2012, she served as an advisor to the National Defence Committee of the Riigikogu (Estonian Parliament). She has lectured on international relations in Estonia and has carried out sociological research projects at Tallinn University.

Russian offensive cyber capabilities are as sophisticated as those of other major cyber powers, such as the United States and China, and they likely exceed Baltic states’ ability to defend critical infrastructures. A successful large-scale cyberattack during peace time, or prior to or in concert with a conventional attack – which could disrupt interdependent financial systems or communications or electricity networks, or affect fuel and water supplies – would likely trigger huge economic loss or even chaos. Among the most vulnerable cyber targets are internet-connected industrial control systems in critical infrastructure sectors, and the digitized health sector.

Executing such a high-end, low probability cyberattack requires substantial resources and long-term preparation – vulnerabilities must be identified with the help of cyber reconnaissance and espionage, industrial control systems must be studied, and malware must be developed or customized for specific high-end targets.

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