For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the stakes couldn’t be higher when it comes to the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. With a landmark nuclear agreement reached last year between the world powers – the U.S., Russia, China, UK, France, and Germany – and Iran, and implemented earlier this year, November’s election will determine the path forward in U.S.-Iranian relations.
However, despite the successful implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), improved bilateral ties between Washington and Tehran remain limited due to several areas of concern.
The first is continued adherence to the JCPOA by both the U.S. and Iranian governments. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program offered a new opportunity for leaders from both countries to partake in productive discussions, and to date, the Iranian nuclear deal appears to have progressed as planned; Iran has abided by its commitments to eliminate nearly its entire stockpile of enriched uranium and to dissemble thousands of centrifuges, and in return, the U.S. and international community have lifted crippling sanctions against Iran, freeing up $150 billion that has been infused back into the Iranian economy.
Yet, concerns over the continuity of the nuclear accord are rampant. Republican presidential candidates openly stated their desires to “rip up” the nuclear deal on their first day in office. Iran boasts a history of cheating on international nuclear commitments and lying to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the details of its nuclear capacity and intentions. Such rhetoric and history puts the JCPOA on shaky ground.
Second, the U.S. continues to impose sanctions on Iran due to its link to terrorism and its abysmal human rights record. Iran was first designated by the U.S. as a State Sponsor of Terror in 1984, maintains strong ties to various terrorist groups including Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and repeatedly publicizes its desire to “wipe Israel off the map.” Further, the Iranian regime’s suppression of freedom of expression, growing use of executions, and arbitrary detention of political dissidents and U.S. dual citizens are just some of the reported abuses that have become regular parts of Iranian society. Several prisoners from Iran’s 2009 Green Movement remain under house arrest, and the Iranian government has a history of arresting U.S. dual citizens on charges of spying and imprisoning them without trials open to the public.
The U.S. continues to sanction Iranian businesses by restricting their access to U.S. banks and limiting their interactions with U.S. companies. There had been hope that the nuclear agreement would be accompanied by new opportunities for cooperation between U.S. and Iranian business, but that reality has yet to come to fruition. This also has ramifications for Iran’s access to European banks that are afraid of accidentally falling afoul of remaining U.S. sanctions.
Third, recent events in the vital Strait of Hormuz have escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran. In January, Iranian authorities arrested ten U.S. sailors for crossing into Iranian territorial waters, triggering a tense standoff that threatened increased provocation. Last month, four ships belonging to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) "harassed" an American destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz, fueling further friction. The Strait of Hormuz is the only passageway for oil shipments originating from the Persian (Arabian) Gulf, representing about 20 percent of the world’s oil trade. The U.S. has been accompanying U.S.-flagged vessels through the Strait in an effort to prevent potential confrontations with Iran.
Lastly, Iran’s involvement in conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, unwavering support for Syrian President Bashar al Assad, and backing of Shia militias in Iraq and Houthi rebels in Yemen has helped undermine security and stability in the Middle East. Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iran and Israel, regularly trade barbs at the highest level of governance, pitting the U.S. and its allies against Iran’s regional agenda.
So how will the next U.S. president approach relations with Iran? Will the next administration work to further improve bilateral ties between the two nations as has seemingly occurred or return to a policy of non-engagement?
As part of The Cipher Brief’s continuing series on how other nations view the U.S. Presidential election, Emad Kiyaei, Executive Director of the American Iranian Council, analyzes how the Iranian leadership views Donald Trump, and Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy Program, examines Iran’s relationship with Hillary Clinton.
Bennett Seftel is deputy director of editorial at The Cipher Brief.
