Are We Ready for Another Shock?

Members Only Subscribe to read the full article

June 24th, 2020 by The Cipher Brief

OPINION — “Black swans” are events that arrive as unwelcome surprises and have significant effects on nations and societies. They can upend the status quo in politics, economics, or national security. Black swans are even more dangerous when superimposed on other black swans.

It’s always worth trying to anticipate potential black swans — indeed, after 9/11 the CIA created a unit, called the Red Cell, to do just that. But doing so is more necessary today than ever, given what is higher-than-normal fragility in the systems most often affected by these events.

“The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62

Access all of The Cipher Brief‘s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+Member.

Continue Reading

Get access to all our briefs

Categorized as:China CIA DoD Extremism Gray Zone Operations Homeland Security Hong Kong India Intelligence International national security Pakistan UncategorizedTagged with:CIA Intelligence national security The Cipher Brief

Featured Piece

Warning Signs of a More Dangerous Global Conflict

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — If President Joe Biden’s recent remarks in Poland and President Vladimir Putin’s in Moscow just a day later are any indication of the path forward, the February 24 anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may represent the beginning of a new and potentially much more dangerous phase of the conflict, which is increasingly looking like a conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation.

FEB 22, 2023, BY ROB DANNENBERG

What the Experts Say

The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Report is an extraordinary product and an important daily read for situational awareness on national security issues.

General John R. Allen (Ret.) Former Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan

I’m proud to be part of the network of experts at The Cipher Brief, which provides superb geopolitical advice and intelligence insights.

Admiral James Stavridis Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO

The in-depth analysis The Cipher Brief provides, on all issues affecting our national security, written by some of the most senior and knowledgeable public and private sector experts, is truly unique and invaluable. It’s a must read for anyone interested in world affairs.

Ambassador Joseph R. Detrani Former Director, National Counter Proliferation Center

Congratulations to The Cipher Brief for actively promoting a national conversation – through conferences, analysis, and webinars at the highest level – on our country’s national security, intelligence capabilities, and challenges in confronting adversaries and competitors alike.

Emile Nakhleh Former Member, CIA's Senior Intelligence Service

The Cipher Brief has become required reading for national security decision-makers and practitioners. You can be certain that Cipher Brief articles are substantive in content and provide thoughtful analysis from expert professionals.

John Sipher Former Member, CIA's Senior Intelligence Service

The Cipher Brief is far from just another website pontificating about the subjects of the day without any credibility. With The Cipher Brief, you can always be sure that the authors actually know what they are writing about.

Kevin Hulbert Former CIA Chief Of Station

Are We Ready for Another Shock?

Continue Reading

The New Breathtaking ‘Red London’

Related Articles

After Moscow, What is China’s Next Move?

Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Predicts How War Will End

Is China Coming to Russia’s Rescue in Ukraine?

The Cipher Daily Brief

Search