EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — ”Now, this is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end”. Winston Churchill, 1942
Turmoil in Minneapolis and the unprecedented friction within NATO over President Trump’s effort to secure control over Greenland have, predictably, displaced headlines about Venezuela in much of the daily press. But there have been at least a number of important statements from the U.S. and one disturbing statement, reportedly, by Venezuela’s interim president since the U.S. apprehended Maduro and his wife.
On January 20th, in a press conference, President Trump said he was considering a role for Venezuela’s democratic opposition leader, Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado. This was a very encouraging
statement. The opposition has the support of the vast majority of Venezuelans. As has been widely reported and well documented, they won the July 24 national election by an enormous margin despite regime efforts to undermine their campaign.
Maria Corina Machado is the leader of the opposition and a national hero. She is committed to rebuilding her country’s democracy and to reconstructing Venezuela’s dysfunctional and corruption-ridden economy. She is pro-American, pro-private sector and open to foreign direct investment.”
The regime, now being led on an interim basis by Delcy Rodriquez, held on to power after the July 2024 vote through intimidation. The Venezuelan public knows this. And, despite assurances of cooperation to President Trump, there are already signs that the character of this authoritarian regime’s approach to governance has not changed. The regime moved quickly after the U.S. removed Maduro to squelch public expressions of relief that Maduro had been taken into U.S. custody. Left to their own devices, Delcy Rodriquez and company will do everything in their power to consolidate their hold on power. Indeed, this is clear from Rodriguez’s recent public statement that she has had “enough already of Washington’s orders over Venezuelan politicians.”
Integrating Maria Corina Machado into the transition process would reassure her supporters and help to counter the impression that the U.S. is indifferent to the plight of the Venezuelan democratic opposition. It would also contribute to the establishment of the kind of security on the ground that the American oil majors have said must be achieved before they commit to the immense investments necessary to resurrect the country much diminished and dilapidated oil sector.
President Trump says the U.S. will manage the receipts for Venezuelan oil sales and direct some of that money back into Venezuela. Good but these funds should be channeled mostly into the hands of the opposition rather than the regime. Indeed, the last thing that should be done with the oil receipts is giving them to the regime. The regime’s managerial incompetence and corrupt practices are precisely what caused the effective collapse of the economy! As I and others have noted in the past, oil production in Venezuela has shrunk by two thirds since Hugo Chavez was elected. Things got even worse under Nicolas Maduro. The Venezuelan economy contracted by around 70 percent between 2013, when Maduro assumed the presidency, and 2023.
The Trump administration’s decision to work with remaining elements of the Maduro regime’s leadership cadre was and remains understandable. The U.S. wants to avoid the mistakes we made after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The regime’s remaining leaders, however, are never going to be willing partners in the reconstruction of, Venezuela if that means empowering their adversaries – as Delcy Rodriguez’s recent comment makes clear. They are counting on the U.S. losing interest or being distracted by other crises. The United States needs to be prepared to counter this heretofore unstated impression.
The U.S. considered this a criminal regime before Maduro was apprehended. Rodriquez and the ministers of Defense and Interior were all a part of Maduro’s inner circle. They are miscreants who will revert to their previous patterns of repression and malfeasance absent close vigilance by the U.S. and the democratic opposition. This is why President Trump’s decision to get American diplomats back into the country and name a tough, experienced ambassador to lead the Venezuelan interest section presently located in Bogota was so important.
The U.S. has a long list of issues to work through with the Rodriquez team. Following Maduro’s capture, Rodriguez, on behalf of the regime, agreed to work with the U.S. to avoid further U.S. military action. We will need to watch carefully to be assured that commitments are met. We should also communicate persuasively that the U.S. is willing to act forcefully again if the circumstances warrant it.
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