Today, commercial aviation is growing at a rapid rate. Unfortunately, commercial aviation is also the primary target of several terrorist groups and other malicious actors around the world. Since the late 20th century, commercial aviation has been attacked from a variety of threat vectors—the methods used to hit a target – and increasingly advanced techniques.
Terrorists actively collect information about the global aviation security system and its technology. Using this data, terrorists have been very inventive and modified their techniques and tactics based on changes in security methods. We have witnessed attacks within the aircraft cabin, attacks that use the aircraft as a weapon, hijackings, attacks generated from the cargo systems, the use of surface to air missiles, and many other types of threats. Additionally, civil aviation faces threats not only from terrorists but from unstable government groups, mentally ill people, criminals, and military or paramilitary organizations.
Physical threats to commercial aviation generally fall into two categories, internal and external threats. Internal threats are those threats conducted by individuals or organizations that are part of the aviation community and have access to the aviation system. This includes a diverse range of employees, stakeholders, and others who have access to controlled areas. External threats are those threats posed by any individuals or groups who are not part of the aviation sector and who do not have special access to airports and aircraft—such as terrorist groups, criminals, insurgents, mentally unstable people, and militaries.
Currently, there is a wide range of physical threat vectors against commercial aircraft, and most of them fall into the following categories:
Use of the aircraft as a weapon of mass destruction. This is the 9/11 scenario, where the aircraft is hijacked and then used as a flying bomb to attack another target. This threat can come from external and internal sources. Terrorists from al Qaeda effectively used aircraft to attack New York City and Washington DC. Internally an attack of this nature could occur from a member of the crew commandeering the aircraft and using it as a weapon.
Destruction of the aircraft with an explosive device to instill terror. This is currently the most significant threat to aviation today. Externally this could involve a passenger smuggling an explosive device onto the aircraft with the intent to detonate it within the aircraft while in flight, possibly over a populated area. Examples of this type threat include the underwear bomber, the shoe bomber, and the failed attempt to use a liquid explosive aboard a plane in the U.K. It is currently the most likely threat to aviation, and the two primary terrorist groups targeting aviation in this vector are al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS.
Another external threat in this category is from poorly screened cargo and baggage that would enable an explosive to detonate in the aircraft once airborne. The failed printer bomb attack from Yemen and the downing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland are examples of this external threat vector.
Internally the ability of an “insider” or aviation employee with access to the aircraft presents another threat vector for destroying the aircraft with an explosive device. Recent attacks on Metro Jet in Egypt and the Dallo Airlines in Somalia were perpetrated by insiders using explosive devices to attack the aircraft.
Destruction of the aircraft as acts of terror, political statements, or criminal acts. This threat vector is mainly an internal threat from the crew of the aircraft. Recent examples include Egypt Air flight 990, the German Wings flight 9525 crash, and likely the downing of Malaysia Air 370. All of these attacks were conducted by the air crew and resulted in total loss of the aircraft and passengers.
Destruction of the aircraft using Surface-to-Air Missiles and other military weapons systems. This is an external threat that has recently been highlighted with the downing of Malaysia Air flight 17 over Ukraine by insurgents and, previously, the use of a shoulder-fired missile on an El Al aircraft in Mombasa, Kenya. In fact, according to the State Department, since the mid-1970s there have been over 30 attacks against civilian aircraft by surface-to-air missile systems, mainly in Africa. This threat vector also includes rocket-propelled grenades and anti-air artillery systems. Commercial aviation is exceptionally vulnerable to these types of attacks, because they do not have early warning systems or other defense systems that military aircraft use to mitigate ground-based threats.
Destruction of the aircraft through newer and other technologies. This is primarily an external threat vector. Two new threat vectors outside of the cyber threat, the threat from blinding lasers, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, (UAV). Recent reporting from multiple sources indicate an increase in the use of lasers against civilian aircraft and also the use of UAVs disrupting flights particularly during landing and takeoff. With the rapid production and availability of drones and lasers, it is a reasonable assumption that they pose a growing threat to the security of the aircraft.
Unlawful interference to the aircraft, flight, or crew. This includes any and all illegal activities that disrupt or endanger the aircraft or flight. It can be both internal and external in nature and includes hijacking, attacking crewmembers, willful destruction of parts of the aircraft, intentionally setting fire to parts of the aircraft, etc. Instances of these types of events have steadily increased over the last 20 years. Two recent examples include a flight attendant setting fire to a lavoratory on American Airlines flight 1418 and the hijacking of an Egypt Air flight 181 in March 2016. This type of threat, while not sophisticated, could have the same dire effects as other methods.
The methods and threat vectors used to physically attack commercial aircraft have significantly increased and pose an evolving challenge to security services. The destruction of a commercial aircraft by any group or individual has an enormous economic impact on the global aviation system and causes significant changes to our aviation security system, as well as eroding the trust of the travelling public.
