Two former CIA officers with decades of experience offered up some advice to President Donald Trump on how to deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during The Cipher Brief’s Georgetown Salon Series event on Thursday.
Robert Richer, former Associate Deputy Director for Operations at the CIA, and Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who served as a CIA intelligence officer for 23 years, told attendees that the United States-Russia relationship is widely misunderstood — and coming to the table with respect and from a position of power would be the key way for Trump to potentially thaw U.S. relations with the country.
As a nation, the United States thinks in the short-term, Richer said, while Russia has always taken the long view. “For them, the long-term game is re-cementing their position around the world,” Richer, now the president and CEO of Uptima Group, noted.
Trump’s embrace of Putin throughout his campaign and in the early days of his presidency is both naïve and valid, according to Mowatt-Larssen. “We need to engage the Russians,” and Trump and his senior leadership have the “right idea” on doing so, he said. But, he added, the U.S. cannot give up its position or assume Putin’s. Instead, Trump and his associates must come to the table with both strength and respect as the basis of negotiations.
“I don’t trust them; they don’t trust me. Respect is what we have to start with,” Mowatt-Larssen, a senior fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said.
Richer agreed, noting that the Russians “want to have a bit more respect at the table.”
To achieve any success, the U.S. must also pay “an extraordinary amount of attention” to trying to “desensitize that we’re the superpower and they are not,” Mowatt-Larssen said.
“Let’s try to go back to the table and depersonalize the relationship,” he added.
Focusing on common enemies — ISIS, the expansion of extremism and North Korea, for instance — would be a good way for the U.S. to come to the table with concerns it shares with Russia. Other issues the Russians care about that the U.S. could reach out on are: nuclear proliferation and ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles); hacking; and being sensitive to Russian perception of NATO expansion without giving up up on the alliance, Mowatt-Larssen said
And the U.S. has to focus on what is “existential to us” — namely nuclear proliferation, the cohesion of Europe, and China — he noted.
Overall, U.S. negotiators must recognize “dictating to the Russians and particularly Putin doesn’t work,” Richer noted.
At the same time, Trump and his team should also take care to explain to the U.S. Intelligence Community “exactly what we expect out of this relationship, and what we are willing to give — because that’s important,” he noted.
Mowatt-Larssen also pointed out that for U.S.-Russian intelligence relations to be successful, Trump should be the one to “trigger it,” since the Russians will respond to “top cover.”
The U.S.-Russia intelligence relationship is on-going and daily, Richer noted, with a regular exchange of information through both military and CIA channels. As for concerns over National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, who has appeared on Russian state-owned English-language RT as an analyst and in 2015 attended a gala dinner for the network in Moscow, Richer predicted that Flynn will be “generally too busy,” and so “he’ll go to the professionals” on Russian issues.
Richer pointed to the example of former National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice who attempted to be “the Russia person” for the Bush administration. “That didn’t work at all” for Rice due to the nature of the position, he said, and it should be the same based on Flynn’s responsibility for so many different aspects of U.S. foreign policy and national security.
The two former intelligence officers also tackled the issue of briefing the new president, who has repeatedly questioned U.S. intelligence information both during and after the election.
They were asked about whether the IC might be reluctant to provide the President with details about sources and methods. However, despite the lack of respect shown by Trump to the IC, Richer noted that “we will never lie to the President of the United States.”
Mowatt-Larssen said that as an officer, “you have to trust” the president, and it is key to realize “you’re not speaking as an individual, you’re speaking to the highest office.”
“We cannot afford to politicize intelligence,” he said.
Given Russian interference in the U.S. election along with Trump’s cozying up to Putin, the United States’ relationship with the country under this president has been a key issue in Washington. Still, Mowatt-Larssen says he expects that “most likely confrontation with this administration is with China, not with Russia.”
The pair also discussed other potential flashpoints with Russia that could come under a Trump presidency.
With the concerns that Trump could try to alter sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis and the 2014 annexation of Crimea, as he suggested he would consider during the campaign — “the red line for Ukraine,” Richer noted — the administration should be conscious of how badly that would be perceived on the international stage if the U.S. brought that to negotiations with Russia.
On Syria, a “vacuum” was created under former President Barack Obama that allowed Russia to move in, making it impossible for the moderate opposition to win, Richer noted. The U.S. must make its way back to the negotiating table on this, Mowatt-Larssen pointed out, given that any arrangement on Syria will need “the credibility of an international agreement” and not just one from Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
Russia watchers should keep an eye on Putin’s relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, given how close the two have become over the past year and their increased cooperation on Syria.
“Putin looks in the mirror and he sees the Turkish leader right now,” Richer said.
With Erdogan’s authoritarian approach, Putin “has a partner who sees the world the way he does,” he added.
Historically, the most successful U.S. presidents who have dealt with Russia “talk from a position of strength,” Mowatt-Larssen said. But, he cautioned, “I don’t want to convey optimism.”
The Russians “understand force,” and they “need to know they’re being targeted,” Richer said. “They don’t respect us right now.”
As Trump and those in his administration keep up the talk of warming relations with Russia and Putin, the two former CIA officers warned against ignoring history. As Mowatt-Larrsen noted, “The landscape is cluttered with people who thought they could fix” the relationship with Russia.”
Mackenzie Weinger is a national security reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @mweinger.
