9:32 AM America/New York Monday, June 23
Report for Monday, June 23, 2025
- World Braces for Iran’s Response After US Strikes Signal New Era
- Satellite images indicate severe damage to Fordow, but doubts remain
- Putin says 'the whole of Ukraine is ours,’ does not rule out capturing Sumy
- Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China
CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES
Experts Assess Iran Strikes, Response, and What Comes Next.Five national security experts offered key insights into the implications of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. General David Petraeus emphasized the mission’s precision but noted that it remains unclear whether Iran’s nuclear capabilities were destroyed. Petraeus said the top intelligence focus now is to verify if Iran retains highly enriched uranium, operational centrifuges, or undisclosed nuclear sites, which would determine if the nuclear program can be quickly restarted. Norman Roule warned of Iran’s potential to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and is watching for signs of internal fragmentation in Iran. Ralph Goff stressed Iran’s diminished proxy capabilities but warned of potential asymmetric retaliation via cyber or assassination. Glenn Corn highlighted Lebanon’s political fragility and suggested that Russia may recalibrate its approach after witnessing the U.S. resolve. Ambassador Joseph DeTrani cautioned that the strike could embolden North Korea and lead to closer Iran–North Korea collaboration on missile and nuclear technology, posing new proliferation threats. Collectively, the experts underscored heightened regional instability and the global ramifications of the U.S. military action. The Cipher Brief
How Resilient is the Energy Market in the Midst of the Middle East Crisis? Energy expert Norman T. Roule emphasized the surprising resilience of global energy markets amid the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. He attributed this to years of exposure to geopolitical shocks and well-supplied markets, especially from U.S. production. Roule outlined that the U.S. is coordinating with Gulf allies to prepare for a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH), with contingency plans including activating alternative pipelines and strategic reserves. He warned that while Iran could temporarily disrupt the strait, doing so would harm its economy and global standing. Roule also discussed China's passive stance, highlighting its dependence on discounted Iranian oil and its unwillingness to intervene. As for wild cards, he noted that disruptions to natural gas from the Gulf—especially affecting Qatar and Israeli exports to Egypt and Jordan—could ripple through global markets. Despite risks, Roule believes the West is well-prepared to counter Iran’s military threats. The Cipher Brief
AMERICA STRIKES IRAN
World Braces for Iran’s Response After US Strikes Signal New Era. Iran faces limited and risky options in responding to the U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities. While President Trump called for peace, Tehran vowed retaliation, with officials warning that the timing and scale of their response will be determined by military leadership. Potential responses include symbolic missile strikes on U.S. bases, cyberattacks, or targeting Israel directly, maintaining a tit-for-tat dynamic. More escalatory moves—like attacking U.S. forces or attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz—could trigger a powerful U.S. retaliation and deepen the conflict. Analysts say Iran’s regime, weakened and isolated, may pursue a limited response to avoid collapse, but hardliners may push for confrontation.BloombergWall Street JournalReuters
Trump’s Iran attack was ferocious. But has it actually worked? Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, was unprecedented in scale—over 125 aircraft, dozens of Tomahawk missiles, and the first-ever combat use of the GBU-57 “bunker-buster” bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers. Fordow, buried deep in a mountain and long considered impregnable, was the primary target. Iran did not respond militarily. While President Trump declared the nuclear program “totally obliterated,” Pentagon officials remain cautious; early satellite images confirm major damage but not full destruction. Experts believe the attack likely disrupted or destroyed vital equipment, especially if centrifuges were running during impact. Yet concerns persist that Iran retains hidden enriched uranium and may restart its program elsewhere. The facility’s ventilation shaft may have been deliberately targeted to disable operations long-term. Whether the strike ends Iran’s nuclear ambitions or provokes renewed efforts remains uncertain. The EconomistNew York Times
Satellite images indicate severe damage to Fordow, but doubts remain. Satellite imagery confirms extensive damage to Iran’s Fordow nuclear site from U.S. bunker-busting bombs, but experts caution the full extent—especially underground—is unknown. Six penetrations in the mountain suggest a “double tap” of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators by B-2 bombers. However, the centrifuge hall lies too deep to confirm destruction via satellite. Analysts suspect Iran preemptively moved its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and other key assets, with images showing unusual vehicle activity at Fordow before the strike. ReutersWall Street Journal
Here Are the Three Iranian Nuclear Sites the U.S. Attacked. The U.S. struck three key Iranian nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—with bunker-buster bombs and cruise missiles, causing what Pentagon officials called “extremely severe damage.” However, uncertainties remain. At Fordow, deep inside a mountain, satellite images show likely bomb entry points and debris near ventilation shafts, but officials admit the facility was not destroyed. Natanz, Iran’s largest enrichment site, was already damaged by Israel; U.S. strikes added craters above suspected underground halls. Power loss may have damaged the centrifuges, but the extent of the damage is unknown. At Isfahan, new satellite images show damage to aboveground structures, though it’s unclear if Iran moved its near-bomb-grade fuel beforehand. The actual status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains unknown. New York TimesWall Street JournalReuters
U.S. officials concede they don’t know the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.Despite President Donald Trump’s declaration that Iran’s nuclear program was “completely and totally obliterated,” U.S. officials now admit they do not know the location of Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile—enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons. Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. hopes to “do something” with the fuel, but Iran shows no interest in talks. Satellite imagery indicates Iran may have moved uranium and some equipment before the strikes, possibly from Isfahan and Fordo. While Fordo was severely damaged, it was not destroyed. Natanz suffered major electrical and structural damage that may have disabled centrifuges. Yet without IAEA inspections—currently suspended—verification is impossible. Analysts estimate the attacks may delay Iran’s weaponization ability by two to five years. New York TimesIran threatened to unleash attacks by sleeper cells inside U.S. if it was attacked. In the days leading up to U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, Iran sent a message to President Trump threatening to activate sleeper-cell attacks on American soil if it were attacked. The warning was reportedly delivered through an intermediary at the G7 summit in Canada. While both the White House and Iran declined to comment, Trump has vowed to carry out overwhelming retaliation if Iran strikes back. The Department of Homeland Security has issued a warning about an increased risk of terrorist activity and cyberattacks linked to the Iran conflict, particularly if Tehran calls for religiously motivated violence, and American cities are on high alert. Vice President JD Vance confirmed the administration is monitoring threats closely, raising concerns about individuals who may have entered the U.S. without proper vetting. European diplomats also fear Iran could target Western nationals beyond the Middle East. NBC NewsNBC NewsThe Telegraph
Trump taunts Iran with prospect of ‘regime change’ after strike on nuclear sites. President Trump floated the prospect of regime change in Iran following the massive U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. On Truth Social, Trump wrote Sunday: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!” This directly undermined Vice President JD Vance’s earlier assertion that “we don’t want a regime change” and that the U.S. goal was solely to end Iran’s nuclear program and seek a long-term settlement. Trump’s rhetoric risks escalating tensions and could alienate elements of his non-interventionist MAGA base, even as U.S. officials insisted no further attacks are planned unless Iran retaliates. Meanwhile, Iran warned of a "regret-inducing response," and the possibility of wider conflict remains high. Financial TimesAxiosPolitico
U.S. has ‘no interest’ in putting troops on the ground in Iran, Vance says. Vice President JD Vance stated on Meet the Press on Sunday that the U.S. has "no interest" in deploying ground troops to Iran and does not seek a prolonged conflict. Emphasizing the limited nature of Operation Midnight Hammer, he described the airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites as a "precise, surgical strike" aimed solely at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Vance stressed that the mission was tailored to U.S. national interests and dismissed concerns about escalation, saying he had “no fear” of a drawn-out war. He underscored that the U.S. objective was not regime change and that no wider troop involvement is planned. Axios Axios Al JazeeraTimes of Israel
Trump and Erdogan tried and failed to arrange U.S.-Iran talks.President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tried to broker a secret U.S.-Iran meeting in Istanbul to explore a diplomatic off-ramp to the escalating Israel-Iran war. Trump was willing to send Vice President Vance and envoy Steve Witkoff—or even attend himself. But the plan collapsed when Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, couldn’t be reached for approval due to being in hiding over assassination fears. Without his sign-off, Iranian officials canceled the meeting. Axios
Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran. President Trump’s declaration that he would decide “within two weeks” whether to strike Iran was a deliberate ruse. In truth, the U.S. had already finalized plans for Operation Midnight Hammer—a high-risk, precision B-2 bomber assault on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Trump had greenlit the mission days earlier while projecting indecision to buy time for a last-ditch diplomatic effort and to mislead Iran and his domestic critics. According to Axios, he tightly controlled messaging, coordinated with Israel, and approved every detail, from timing to public narrative. Trump even dictated the misleading press statement before lunching with non-interventionist Steve Bannon, part of a broader deception strategy. The Pentagon added its own misdirection: decoy bombers tracked west while seven fully armed B-2s flew undetected toward Iran. The strike marked the first use of 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs in combat. Trump called it a “spectacular success”—but hinted the mission might be only the beginning. AxiosNew York Times
Iran Stands Alone Against Trump and Israel, Stripped of Allies. Iran is facing its most isolated and perilous moment in decades after U.S. and Israeli strikes severely damaged its nuclear sites. Despite Tehran’s long-standing partnerships, neither Russia nor China is offering more than rhetorical condemnation. Both appear unwilling or unable to provide material or military support, with Moscow preoccupied by Ukraine and Beijing focused on preserving economic ties—particularly oil imports—from a volatile region. Iran’s proxy network, including Hezbollah and Hamas, is largely silent or constrained, while Gulf neighbors urge restraint to avoid regional escalation. Europe, once a diplomatic bridge, is now sidelined and fractured, with little influence over U.S. or Israeli actions. Iran stands increasingly alone, its alliances fraying just as the risks of retaliation—and potential regime instability—mount. The Iranian foreign minister said on Sunday that he was heading to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin on Monday. BloombergNew York TimesNew York Times
Iran's supreme leader asks Putin to do more after US strikes.Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has sent Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to Moscow to seek greater support from President Vladimir Putin following the largest U.S. military strikes against Iran since 1979. Tehran is reportedly dissatisfied with Russia’s limited backing so far and is pushing for stronger assistance amid escalating tensions with the U.S. and Israel, who have publicly discussed the possibility of regime change and even targeting Khamenei. While Putin condemned Israel’s actions, he has not commented directly on the U.S. strikes, though he has offered to mediate and emphasized support for Iran's civil nuclear energy rights. Araqchi is expected to deliver a letter from Khamenei to Putin during their meeting. Reuters
Iran parliament reportedly backs closing the Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil prices. Iran’s parliament has backed closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, in response to U.S. strikes—but analysts doubt the move will materialize. The parliament lacks authority over the strait, and real control rests with regime security officials. Blocking the strait, which carries about a third of global maritime oil, would likely trigger a sharp spike in oil prices and provoke a major U.S. military response. Experts like Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew warn such an act would be seen as a declaration of war, which Iran, in its current weakened state, is unlikely to pursue. More probable is increased harassment of shipping. U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, called the idea “suicidal” given Iran’s economic dependence on the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also called on China to dissuade Iran from closing the route. AxiosBBCReuters
Norman T. Roule
The Cipher Brief: Iran’s Oil Problem
Sheltering in a Bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Names Potential Successors. Israel’s strikes on Iran, followed by U.S. bombings of key nuclear sites, have pushed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei into the most precarious moment of his rule. Now in a bunker and fearing assassination, he has named military and political successors—including three possible replacements for himself—an extraordinary move in Iran’s history. While once open to diplomacy, Khamenei has shifted to confrontation, vowing defiance. Iran is avoiding direct conflict with the U.S. for now, instead increasing missile attacks on Israel. This strategy—retaliating without triggering all-out war—is what analysts call “escalate to de-escalate.” Though some regime figures claim the attacks have stirred national solidarity, Iran’s long standing internal divisions and deep mistrust of the regime remain unresolved. Tehran fears further military losses, cyber-infiltration, and internal collapse. Yet it refuses surrender or nuclear abandonment. Khamenei’s rule has survived decades of crises—but this may be the first time he’s actively preparing for its end. New York TimesThe EconomistFinancial Times
Is the U.S. at war with Iran? President Trump’s strike on Iranian nuclear sites, ordered without congressional approval, has sparked fierce debate over legality and war powers. Critics argue the move violated the Constitution, which grants Congress the authority to declare war. Trump officials defend it as a limited, defensive action, not a war. Yet Trump’s own comments hinting at regime change raised concerns about broader intentions. Legal scholars overwhelmingly say the strike breached U.S. and international law, citing the absence of imminent threat or congressional consent. Lawmakers like Sen. Tim Kaine and Rep. Thomas Massie are pushing war powers resolutions to rein in presidential authority. The episode renews long-standing tensions over unchecked military actions by presidents in the post-9/11 era. New York Times
The U.S. helped oust Iran’s government in 1953. Here’s what happened. In 1953, the Central Intelligence Agency—backed by Britain—engineered a covert coup to remove Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, after he nationalized British oil assets. Fearing Soviet influence and communism, the U.S. opted to restore Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, an autocratic monarch aligned with Western interests. The CIA’s role included propaganda, street mobilization, and coordination with the Iranian military. The shah ruled for over two decades, overseeing modernization and economic growth, but also widespread political repression. The coup remains a powerful symbol in Iranian politics, cited by historians as a pivotal moment that eroded the monarchy’s legitimacy and fostered deep-seated distrust of foreign interference. That legacy looms large today, as the U.S. ramps up pressure on Tehran amid conflict with Israel. While the U.S. has not formally called for regime change in 2025, Trump’s demands for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” echo past interventions. Many Iranians remain wary of any domestic figure seen as collaborating with foreign powers. New York TimesTHE AMERICAS
Shifting World Order Threatens to Expand the Nuclear-Arms Club.The global nuclear order is under strain as conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, coupled with doubts about U.S. security guarantees under President Trump, are prompting U.S. allies to reconsider nuclear armament. Ukraine’s 1990s disarmament is now viewed by many as a strategic blunder, contrasting with North Korea’s immunity thanks to its nuclear arsenal. Allies like South Korea, Japan, Poland, and Turkey are openly debating nuclear capabilities amid fading confidence in NATO and American protection. Trump’s skepticism of NATO and reduced military commitments fuel this anxiety. The U.S. argues its security guarantees remain firm, but countries see the international nonproliferation regime eroding. Russia’s alliances with North Korea and Iran, along with Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iran’s program, are reinforcing nuclear logic. South Korea, in particular, is increasingly supportive of its own deterrent. As nuclear ambitions spread among democracies, the nuclear club could expand dramatically, undermining decades of arms control efforts. Wall Street Journal
Why Countries Are Suddenly Broadcasting Their Spies’ Exploits.Modern warfare is transforming spycraft into public spectacle, as nations increasingly broadcast covert operations for psychological and propaganda impact. Once-secret missions are now filmed, shared, and weaponized on social media—used by Ukraine, Israel, and even the U.S. to showcase capabilities, shape narratives, and intimidate adversaries. Israel’s Mossad released footage of agents inside Iran during recent strikes, signaling impunity and Tehran’s vulnerability. Ukraine routinely publicizes drone attacks deep in Russia to raise morale and erode domestic support for the war. The shift stems from digitized data, ubiquitous surveillance, and changing goals: intelligence is now a tool of persuasion, not just secrecy. Real-time exposure bolsters deterrence but risks compromising future operations. Russia, meanwhile, embraces blatant covert actions and messaging, showing minimal concern for concealment. The information battlefield is now as critical as the physical one, with covert ops engineered not just to succeed, but to be seen. Wall Street Journal
Top Pentagon spy pick rejected by White House. The White House has declined to advance the Pentagon’s recommendation of Army Lt. Gen. Richard Angle to lead the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, prolonging a leadership gap at the top of U.S. intelligence operations. Angle, a special operations veteran with limited cybersecurity experience, had backing from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and DNI Tulsi Gabbard, whose influence in the administration has reportedly diminished. The reasons for the decision remain unclear. Trump fired the previous NSA chief in April and is considering structural changes to the NSA-Cyber Command leadership as tensions with Iran escalate. The post requires Senate confirmation. Politico
Canada, EU preparing to ink security pact ahead of NATO summit.Canada and the European Union are set to sign a new security and defense partnership on Monday during a summit in Brussels. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, aiming to strengthen ties with non-U.S. allies, is seeks Ottawa’s participation in SAFE, the EU’s €150 billion joint military procurement fund. The partnership would facilitate joint military purchases, improve access to ammunition, and enable resource pooling for complex defense systems, pending further talks. Carney will meet EU leaders to issue a joint statement outlining expanded collaboration, including launching negotiations for a digital trade agreement. Since the 2017 provisional trade deal (CETA), Canada-EU goods trade has grown 64% to €76 billion. Canada won’t access SAFE loans but could join procurement deals. Carney will also attend the NATO summit in The Hague, where allies are debating raising defense spending targets to 5% of GDP. Bloomberg
Reporters for Voice of America and other U.S. networks fear what's next. The Trump administration has issued mass layoffs at the U.S. Agency for Global Media, eliminating approximately 1,400 jobs—85% of the workforce—and effectively gutting the Voice of America (VOA) and its sister outlets, including Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). The move follows an executive order that has been criticized by many as undermining press freedom and U.S. commitments to journalists working in repressive environments. Foreign journalists on expiring J-1 visas now face the possibility of imprisonment or worse if they are forced to return home. The layoffs coincided with the jailing of RFE/RL reporter Farid Mehralizada in Azerbaijan. While a few imprisoned journalists were released over the weekend, many others remain jailed. Critics warn this move betrays U.S. ideals and endangers journalists who risked their lives reporting for America abroad. National Public Radio
Powerful Trump aide who’s in charge of vetting thousands of staffers still hasn’t been fully vetted himself. Sergio Gor, Trump’s influential presidential personnel director, is under scrutiny for failing to submit the standard SF-86 security clearance form—an unusual omission for someone responsible for vetting thousands of government appointees. Although he claims Maltese heritage, Malta could not confirm his birth, and some insiders speculate that he may have ties to another country, possibly Russia. Gor has only an interim clearance and has long resisted formal vetting, citing fears of “deep state” interference. His secrecy, combined with his use of the surname Gorokhovsky in high school, has fueled speculation about undisclosed foreign connections. While allies hail his loyalty and effectiveness, critics warn his unchecked power and opaque background could pose national security concerns. New York PostPoliticoTHE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russian mass missile, drone attack on Kyiv kills at least 7, injures 25.Russia’s latest large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv killed at least six people and injured 25, including four children, early on Monday, marking the second deadly assault on the capital in a week. The barrage—352 drones and 16 missiles—damaged five residential buildings, a hospital, and multiple districts across Kyiv. In the broader Kyiv region that surrounds the Ukrainian capital, a 68-year-old woman was killed and at least eight people were injured, officials said. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the strikes as part of a deliberate campaign of terror and warned that Russia, Iran, and North Korea represent a growing coalition of aggression. Zelensky also warned that waning Western focus could undermine Ukraine’s war effort. New York Times Kyiv IndependentReuters
Putin says 'the whole of Ukraine is ours,’ does not rule out capturing Sumy. At the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his imperial vision over Ukraine, declaring that “the whole of Ukraine is ours.” He also did not rule out capturing Sumy, a major regional capital near the Russian border. Although Russia has already annexed four Ukrainian regions, Putin hinted at further expansion while refusing U.S. and Ukrainian calls for a ceasefire. His rhetoric leans on the narrative that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” justifying continued military aggression. Despite President Trump’s early promises to broker peace, negotiations have stalled, with Moscow demanding formal recognition of occupied territories. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy teeters on recession, and its airstrikes on Ukraine, including recent attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv, have intensified. Western diplomatic hopes are dimming as Putin doubles down on a war aimed at asserting dominance over Ukraine. ReutersBloombergKyiv IndependentUSA TodaNew York Times
Putin says the war in Ukraine is not killing Russia's economy. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on Friday, President Vladimir Putin dismissed claims that his war on Ukraine is destroying Russia’s economy, citing low debt, GDP diversification, and easing inflation. He claimed 43% of GDP now stems from non-energy, non-defense sectors. Yet concerns persist: inflation remains high at 9.6%, and the economy risks slipping into recession. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned of stagnation, while Sberbank’s CEO revealed the bank hasn’t financed a single new project in 2025. Business leaders criticized high interest rates, calling for urgent monetary easing. Putin urged a shift to “balanced growth,” but acknowledged risks of a downturn. Despite pressure, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina retains Putin’s backing. Reuters
Rob Dannenberg
The Cipher Brief
Ukraine Says Russia Not Winding Down and Now Eyeing Europe. Ukraine’s military leadership warns that Russia is preparing for a long, grinding war, with 695,000 troops currently deployed and 121,000 in reserve. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi described Moscow’s strategy as one of attrition, using mass mobilization to exhaust Ukrainian forces. President Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence that Russia may launch new operations on European territory, signaling broader ambitions beyond Ukraine. Russia continues advancing in the east and southeast, while also building a buffer zone in Sumy. Ukraine has responded with deep strikes into Russian territory and limited cross-border offensives, including in Russia’s Kursk region. Kyiv sees these moves as necessary to bind Russian forces and slow their momentum. Syrskyi emphasized that Ukraine cannot remain on the defensive alone and hinted at future counter offensives. Bloomberg
Ukraine Amasses $43 Billion for Defense Industry, Zelensky Says. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has secured $43 billion in funding this year for its defense industry, combining domestic resources with allied support. The funds will boost the production of drones, artillery, and other weapons, as Ukraine shifts toward building military self-sufficiency amid Russia’s ongoing invasion. A new “Build with Ukraine” initiative will establish arms production lines in European countries, supplying both Ukraine and its allies. Zelenskiy urged partners to contribute 0.25% of their GDP to Ukraine’s defense sector and called for tougher sanctions on companies aiding Russia’s military. Meanwhile, Russian airstrikes continue across Ukraine, and Kyiv relies increasingly on UAVs to intercept attacks. Bloomberg
Russia and Ukraine swap more POWs in the second exchange in two days. Russia and Ukraine conducted a second prisoner exchange in as many days on June 20, as part of renewed agreements following peace talks in Istanbul. Neither side disclosed the number of POWs involved, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said most of the released Ukrainian soldiers had been in captivity for over two years. Russia’s defense ministry stated its returning troops were now in Belarus. The exchanges also include the return of fallen soldiers and mark a rare cooperative step amid ongoing fighting along a sprawling front.Reuters
Russia 'afraid to admit' scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers' bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of deliberately concealing the scale of its military losses by returning the bodies of its own soldiers mislabeled as Ukrainian during recent prisoner and body exchanges. Speaking at a briefing, Zelensky said at least 20 returned bodies had Russian passports, and in one case, even included a deceased Israeli citizen fighting for Russia. He claimed Moscow is “afraid to admit how many have died,” fearing domestic backlash if forced to mobilize again. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko echoed the charge, suggesting Russia may also be avoiding compensation payouts to families. Zelensky framed the deception as part of a broader propaganda campaign, warning that Russia is trying to “break the reality” of its staggering losses. Ukraine’s General Staff estimates over 1 million Russian casualties since the war began. Kyiv IndependentKyiv Independent
Ukraine Warns Teenagers the Enemy Is Inside Their Phones. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is warning teenagers that Russian intelligence is targeting them via social media apps like Telegram, TikTok, and Discord, offering quick money for tasks like photographing infrastructure, setting fires, or planting bombs. In nationwide school presentations, masked agents and officials describe how teens are manipulated—sometimes unknowingly—into espionage or sabotage, and even killed in remotely triggered attacks. Authorities say one in four individuals arrested for Russian-backed sabotage this year were minors. Some teens were blackmailed after their first task; others were promised iPhones or cash. Ukraine’s SBU urges vigilance, reminding students that criminal liability begins at age 14 and encouraging them to report recruitment attempts via a chatbot called “Expose the F.S.B. Agent.” New York Times
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, June 20–Sunday, June 22. SUNDAY–Russia condemned the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities as a violation of international law, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is reportedly set to meet with President Putin in Moscow on Monday. Iran’s potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a surge in global oil prices, which would significantly benefit Russia’s economy. Moscow is generating a large reserve force that could be used in Ukraine or potentially against NATO in the future. The Kremlin continues promoting historical revisionism and falsely portraying Ukraine as a non-state to justify ongoing aggression. Russian officials are using the education system to indoctrinate youth with pro-Kremlin, Soviet-centric narratives and militaristic ideology, especially in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. SATURDAY–Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his unchanged demands for Ukraine’s capitulation, including neutrality, rejection of Western alliances, and recognition of Russian control over occupied territories. Russia is rapidly expanding drone production and has introduced upgraded Shahed and Geran-2 drones, using them more frequently in frontline strikes to evade Ukrainian defenses. The Russian government announced plans to reassess parts of its maritime borders in the Baltic Sea, raising concerns over potential escalation with NATO states. FRIDAY–Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that Russia will achieve its objectives through a prolonged war of attrition and insisted that Ukraine accept the "realities on the ground" in any future negotiations. Putin and Kremlin officials are using the concept of “buffer zones” to justify territorial expansion beyond annexed regions, signaling intent to seize areas like Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts under the guise of self-defense. Open-source intelligence indicates that Russia has increased T-90M tank production since 2022 and may be able to sustain armored capabilities for several years. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov as the new Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. .
Battlefield update:Russian forces made advances near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Sunday-Institute for the Study of WarSaturday-Institute for the Study of WarFriday-Institute for the Study of WarEUROPE
Germany military deems Russia ‘existential risk’, Spiegel reports. Germany’s military reportedly deems Russia an “existential risk” according to Spiegel news magazine citing a Bundeswehr strategy paper. The document says that Berlin assesses Moscow is preparing for a “large-scale conflict against NATO by the end of this decade,” aligning its industry and leadership toward that scenario and bolstering forces “at the borders with NATO.” The paper warns that Germany needs “a consistent development of military and society-wide capabilities” to counter this threat. Reuters
General Philip M. Breedlove
The Cipher Brief: As U.S. Commitment Wanes, Europe Faces Questions About its Own Defense
Europe Is Finally Ready to Spend More on Defense. The Hard Part Is How. As war and geopolitical tensions escalate, European governments face growing pressure to dramatically increase military spending. U.S. President Trump is pushing NATO members to raise their defense budgets to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%, while signaling reduced support. Europe must now confront the reality of defending itself without full American backing. Challenges include fragmented military structures, slow procurement processes, and political resistance to centralized EU defense planning. Despite progress—such as a new €150 billion EU defense investment plan and rising budgets—coordination issues, regulatory delays, and overreliance on U.S. weapons remain obstacles. Meanwhile, warfare is rapidly evolving, with drones and cyber technologies replacing traditional equipment. Europe’s defense spending is projected to reach up to €1 trillion by 2030, but the key challenge now lies in converting that financial commitment into real, unified military capabilities. New York Times
Moscow promises to monitor foreign businesses that return to Russia closely. Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov said on Friday that any foreign companies returning to Russia will be closely monitored to ensure their presence benefits Russian interests. Since the Ukraine war began, Moscow has placed several foreign-owned assets under state control and seized domestic properties worth $31 billion. As military spending slows economic growth, officials are trying to balance isolating the economy from "unfriendly" Western nations with attracting investment. Krasnov emphasized that Russian businesses must benefit more than returning Western firms. President Putin has said Russia welcomes foreign investment but criticized “unreliable” companies that left due to political pressure. The Finance Minister claimed no companies have applied to return, though interest is growing. However, the absence of Western firms at Russia’s economic forum and fears over property rights suggest caution. Seized assets from firms like Danone and Carlsberg have been handed to Kremlin-aligned entities. Reuters
Europe’s Growing Fear: How Trump Might Use U.S. Tech Dominance Against It. Microsoft’s suspension of International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan’s email—following an executive order by President Trump targeting the ICC over its investigation of Israel—has triggered alarm across Europe about the continent’s heavy reliance on U.S. tech firms. The incident, seen as emblematic of U.S. influence over global digital infrastructure, raised fears that American companies could be forced to comply with future political directives, even against allies. European lawmakers and institutions now see the need to develop sovereign digital infrastructure to reduce dependency on U.S. firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, which dominate over 70% of Europe’s cloud services. Some European governments are testing alternatives, investing in homegrown tech solutions, and promoting regulatory changes to favor local providers. The broader ICC episode has amplified bloc efforts to assert digital independence amid rising geopolitical tensions. New York Times
Spain strikes agreement with NATO, skips 5% defence spending target. Spain has hammered out a deal with NATO, securing an exemption from the alliance’s proposed 5% of GDP defense spending target, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced Sunday. Instead, the nation will increase its defense budget to 2.1% of GDP while maintaining full standing within the alliance. The exemption was confirmed in letters exchanged with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, just days before a summit in The Hague that requires consensus from all 32 members on new spending guidelines. Spain, which spent only 1.28% last year—NATO's lowest—had warned it couldn't meet the “disproportionate and unnecessary” 5% target, risking disruption to the summit. While U.S. President Trump criticized Madrid for underpaying on Friday, Sánchez said the 5% goal conflicted with Spain's worldview. He did, however, agree that Europe should take greater responsibility for its own defense. PoliticoReuters Associated Press Bloomberg
Trump wants one thing from the NATO summit. Europe is going to give it to him. At the upcoming NATO summit, leaders of the 32-member alliance will pledge to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—3.5% on military hardware and 1.5% on broader defense efforts—largely to appease U.S. President Trump, who has long criticized allies for underfunding their militaries. Trump sees the pledge as a major personal victory, and will spotlight it in a closing speech on Wednesday. However, disagreement remains over when countries must meet the target; smaller members are seeking a 2035 deadline, while the U.S. and eastern allies are pushing for 2030. To avoid tension, NATO organizers have streamlined the summit to just 24 hours and centered it around Trump’s spending demands, sidelining broader discussions like the Ukraine war. Despite the challenges, the pledge marks a significant shift toward Europe taking greater responsibility for its defense. Politico EU
Flagship EU defense plan may be illegal, German parliamentary report warns. A confidential analysis by Germany’s Bundestag warns that the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defense funding plan may violate EU treaties and deliver limited economic benefit. The legal review questions whether using EU funds for defense procurement aligns with Article 41(2) of the Treaty on European Union, which bans funding for military operations. SAFE is being advanced under an economic emergency clause, a move the report calls legally shaky. The analysis also criticizes SAFE’s potential impact, citing low economic multipliers compared to other public investments and warning much of the benefit could go abroad, especially to U.S. suppliers. Although a “Buy European” clause exists, internal EU divisions remain over which non-bloc countries, like Canada or the U.K., should be allowed equal access. The parliamentary report doesn’t oppose SAFE outright but casts doubt on its foundations, though it will not likely affect German government policy. Politico EU
Iran used drug traffickers to stoke trouble in France, says minister. French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau stated on Sunday that Iran has previously used intermediaries, including drug traffickers, to carry out covert operations in France and may do so again, especially amid heightened tensions following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. He claimed that Tehran issues contracts through proxies, which are often unaware of the regime’s involvement. Retailleau cited the 2018 foiled bombing plot near Paris, led by Iranian diplomat Assadolah Assadi, as evidence of Tehran’s covert actions in Europe. Assadi was later convicted and exchanged for European detainees in 2023. Iran has consistently denied involvement in destabilizing activities in Europe. Reuters
Turkey detains well-known journalist for allegedly threatening Erdogan. Turkish journalist Fatih Altayli was arrested on Saturday after a court ruled that comments he made on social media allegedly threatened President Tayyip Erdogan. Altayli, who has over 1.5 million YouTube followers, was detained after he posted a video referencing historical Ottoman rulers who were removed or killed when unpopular. Prosecutors claimed the remarks contained threats, but Altayli denied this, arguing they were taken out of context and were part of a historical discussion. His arrest follows a broader crackdown on opposition figures, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, raising concerns among critics and Western observers about political targeting. The government maintains that the judiciary remains independent. Reuters Associated Press
British citizen accused of spying, terror offenses arrested in Cyprus. A British national has been arrested in Cyprus on suspicion of espionage and terror-related offences, reportedly for conducting surveillance on the U.K.’s RAF Akrotiri base, possibly on behalf of Iran. Local media suggest the man, who is reportedly of Azerbaijani descent, has ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and had also monitored Cyprus's Andreas Papandreou Air Base. He had been spotted in the past carrying a camera and three mobile phones, and was detained for an additional eight days following a court appearance on Saturday. RAF Akrotiri is a key British military asset in the region and has been used to defend Israel from Iranian threats. The UK Foreign Office confirmed it is in contact with Cypriot authorities but offered no further details. Cypriot police cited national security in withholding more information. The arrest comes amid increased British military deployments to the base amid rising tensions with Iran. BBC The GuardianFinancial Times
Greek police arrest man on suspicion of spying in Crete. Greek police have arrested a 26-year-old Azerbaijani man on suspicion of espionage near the NATO base in Souda, Crete, following intelligence from Greece’s security services. Authorities are investigating whether he was monitoring the strategic military facility, which is used by Greece, the U.S., and NATO, and whether his case is connected to the recent arrest of a British man in Cyprus on terror-related charges. The suspect, who had been staying in a hotel near the base since June 18, was found with over 5,000 photographs, encryption software, and other digital equipment. He is expected to appear before a prosecutor this week. ReutersTHE MIDDLE EAST
America’s Arab Gulf Partners Face War On Their Doorstep. Arab Gulf states are urging the U.S. to restrain Israel amid rising tensions over strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, and calls for regime change. While Gulf nations share concerns about Iran’s weapons programs and regional meddling, they fear economic fallout and destabilization. President Trump has dismissed the idea of pushing for de-escalation, and U.S. strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear sites. Gulf leaders, caught between their ties with both Washington and Tehran, have refused to let their territories or airspace be used in any military action. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite past attacks by Iran and its allies, are prioritizing regional stability and economic development. The proximity of Gulf cities to Iran, along with concerns over radiation, trade, and water security, is heightening alarm, with the Gulf Cooperation Council activating its Emergency Management Center to monitor radiation levels, and Bahrain readying dozens of emergency shelters. Wall Street Journal
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Here Are the Top Iranian Generals and Scientists Targeted and Killed by Israeli Strikes—and What We Know About Them. Israel has escalated its offensive against Iran, killing several top military commanders and nuclear scientists in a series of targeted airstrikes, as confirmed by Defense Minister Israel Katz and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Among the high-profile casualties are Saeed Izadi, head of the Quds Force’s Palestine Corps, and Behnam Shahriyari, commander of its Weapons Transfer Unit. The strikes have also killed top Iranian generals, including the IRGC’s commander-in-chief Hossein Salami and Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri. Iran's key nuclear scientists—such as Fereydoun Abbasi and Seyed Amir Hossein Feqhi—were also reportedly eliminated, delivering a major blow to Tehran’s nuclear program. While reports of casualties have emerged rapidly, some, like adviser Ali Shamkhani, were later found to be wounded, not dead. The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict shows no signs of abating, with the risk of broader regional escalation rising. Time
Israeli strike on Tehran kills bodyguard of slain Hezbollah chief. An Israeli airstrike in Tehran killed Abu Ali Khalil, a Hezbollah member and former bodyguard to the group’s slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with Khalil’s son and a senior figure from the Iran-aligned Iraqi militia Kataeb Sayyed Al-Shuhada, according to Lebanese and Iraqi sources. The two men had traveled together to Tehran after a religious pilgrimage to Iraq. Kataeb Sayyed Al-Shuhada confirmed the deaths in a statement. The strike comes amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, which have exchanged attacks for days following Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Hezbollah, though aligned with Iran, has not directly joined in the strikes against Israel from Lebanese territory. Reuters
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Despite clashes with US presidents, Israel's Netanyahu usually gets his way. Just weeks after appearing sidelined by President Trump—who skipped visiting Israel, lifted sanctions on Syria, and sought diplomacy with Iran—Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now celebrating a U.S. airstrike on Iran’s nuclear sites, a longtime goal of his. The shift highlights a recurring pattern in Netanyahu’s career: despite clashing with multiple U.S. presidents, he often ends up securing his core strategic aims. Over decades, Netanyahu has defied leaders from Clinton to Obama and Biden, yet U.S. military aid to Israel has remained steady. His push for action against Iran, even after Trump initially pursued talks, culminated in the June 13 Israeli strikes that prompted Washington’s involvement. Netanyahu welcomed the move as a historic turning point, praising Trump for his “bold decision.” His ability to weather diplomatic tension and view U.S. support as a given, all while advancing Israel's agenda, remains a hallmark of his leadership. Reuters
Erdogan says UNRWA to open office in Turkey, calls for more support for agency. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced that the UN’s Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) will open an office in Ankara, reinforcing his country’s support for the agency after it was banned by Israel. Speaking at an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) meeting, Erdogan urged Muslim countries to provide both financial and moral backing to UNRWA, calling its role in aiding Palestinian refugees “irreplaceable.” Israel barred UNRWA last year, alleging its staff had ties to Hamas and participated in the October 2023 attacks. Turkey has strongly condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide and sees the UNRWA ban as a breach of international law. Reuters
Turkey's Erdogan says Israel attacks aimed to sabotage Iran nuclear talks. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday accused Israel of deliberately sabotaging upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear talks with its recent attacks on Iran, saying the strikes reveal Israel’s unwillingness to pursue diplomatic solutions. Erdogan urged influential nations not to be swayed by what he called Israel’s “poison” and to prioritize dialogue to prevent further regional escalation. He also called on Muslim countries to intensify efforts to impose sanctions and other punitive measures against Israel based on international law and United Nations resolutions. Reuters
ASIA & OCEANIA
Pakistan denounces Trump's attacks on Iran, just one day after nominating him for Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan has sharply condemned the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites ordered by President Donald Trump, calling them a violation of international law and warning of dangerous regional consequences. The statement marked a stark reversal from just a day earlier, when Islamabad had praised Trump as a “genuine peacemaker” for his “decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership” concerning his role in ending a brief conflict with India, saying it would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. On Sunday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to express solidarity and denounce the attacks. Thousands protested in Karachi, trampling images of Trump and chanting against the U.S., Israel, and India. The apparent contradiction in Pakistan’s stance drew attention, but government officials did not comment. The shift reflects the nation’s delicate balancing act amid rising Middle East tensions and its often conflicting diplomatic priorities. ReutersAssociated Press
Philippines accuses China coast guard of aggressive manoeuvres against its fisheries vessels. Manila on Friday accused the Chinese coast guard of carrying out aggressive actions at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, saying Chinese ships used water cannons against Filipino fisheries vessels delivering supplies to local fishermen. According to the Philippine Coast Guard, one of the four vessels was briefly hit by a water cannon, while another narrowly avoided being struck. Tensions over the contested area in the South China Sea remain high, with the Philippines continuing to assert its territorial claims despite growing Chinese pressure. Reuters
Beijing official overseeing Hong Kong warns of persisting national security threats. As the fifth anniversary of Hong Kong’s controversial China-imposed national security law approaches, top Beijing official Xia Baolong warned of ongoing threats to the city’s stability, citing "soft resistance" and foreign interference. Speaking at a forum alongside Hong Kong leader John Lee, Xia defended the law as essential for restoring order after the 2019 protests, despite growing international criticism. He claimed the law targets only a small number of people who endanger national security and reassured that normal international exchanges remain protected. Critics argue the law is eroding promised civil liberties, pointing to recent arrests of pro-democracy figures and a joint security operation by Hong Kong and Chinese authorities. Dozens of civil society groups have disbanded since the law’s enactment. Xia maintained the law has brought order, but his remarks underscore Beijing’s continued tightening grip over the city. Associated PressBloomberg
Taiwan is 'of course' a country, president says in rebuke to China. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te firmly declared on Sunday that Taiwan is “of course” a country, rejecting China’s sovereignty claims as lacking historical and legal basis. Speaking at a Rotary International event, Lai emphasized Taiwan’s distinct development, including its history of resisting foreign rule. He cited Taiwan’s democratic system and presidential elections as clear evidence of statehood. Lai also dismissed Beijing’s reliance on the 1971 UN resolution, which transferred China’s UN seat from Taipei to Beijing, saying it had nothing to do with Taiwan’s sovereignty. Despite repeated offers for dialogue, China, which labels Lai a “separatist,” has rejected talks and continues military pressure near the island. His speech is part of a broader campaign to rally national unity amid growing cross-strait tensions. Reuters
Japan cancels US meeting after Washington demands more defense spending. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary on Monday dismissed a Financial Times report that Japan had scrapped a security meeting with the U.S. after the Trump administration demanded a sharp increase in Tokyo’s defense spending.. The annual 2+2 talks, scheduled for July 1 in Washington, were to include U.S. Secretaries Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, as well as Japanese Foreign and Defense Ministers. Sources say Japan pulled out after the U.S. raised its defense spending request from 3% to 3.5% of GDP, with some reports suggesting a demand of 5%. Japanese officials, however, denied any such targets had been discussed. U.S. officials confirmed Japan postponed the talks but gave no reason. The move comes amid strained trade negotiations, Japan’s upcoming elections, and broader tensions over U.S. military spending demands on allies. Tokyo reiterated that its defense budget is set independently and not dictated by foreign governments. Financial TimesReutersBloomberg
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba to skip NATO summit, source says.Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will no longer attend this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, according to a source familiar with the matter. The cancellation comes amid uncertainty over a planned meeting between NATO and the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4)—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—and the unlikely prospect of a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Fuji Television reported the shift, noting that Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will now represent Japan. Leaders from South Korea and Australia have also opted out of attending. Ishiba’s decision comes just days after the foreign ministry confirmed his participation. Japan had planned bilateral talks during the summit, continuing its high-level presence at NATO meetings since 2022, when it was first invited after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reuters
India says it will never restore Indus water treaty with Pakistan. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah declared that India will never reinstate the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan and will instead divert water previously flowing to Pakistan for domestic use, particularly to Rajasthan. The 1960 treaty, which guaranteed Pakistan access to water from three rivers originating in India, was suspended after a deadly attack in Kashmir, which New Delhi attributed to terrorism. Although Pakistan denies involvement and a ceasefire was recently agreed upon, the treaty remains inactive. Shah told the Times of India that Islamabad has been receiving water “unjustifiably” and said his country would build canals to redirect it. His remarks further reduce the likelihood of future negotiations. Pakistan’s foreign ministry has not yet responded, but has previously warned that any attempt to block water flow would be seen as an “act of war” and is considering a legal challenge under international law. ReutersAFRICA
Russia’s Wagner allegedly committing war crimes by promoting atrocities in West Africa. A confidential legal brief submitted to the International Criminal Court accuses Russia-linked Wagner Group of committing horrific war crimes in West Africa, including the use of graphic videos on social media that depict mutilations and alleged cannibalism. These materials, reportedly posted online by Wagner fighters, aim to dehumanize enemies, but may also incite further violence. The brief argues that sharing such content online constitutes a war crime under the Rome Statute. Violence in the Sahel region has surged, with extremism at global highs, and the power of groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State growing. As Western forces exit, Russia expands influence through Wagner and its successor, Africa Corps. Mali and Burkina Faso condemned the images but accountability remains scarce, and repression of civil society hinders investigations. The ICC is reviewing the allegations, which tie both physical atrocities and digital propaganda to Wagner's actions in Mali from 2021 to 2024. Associated Press
Gunmen in western Niger launch brutal attack, killing 34 soldiers and wounding 14. An attack last week by armed men in western Niger near the borders with Mali and Burkina Faso killed 34 soldiers and wounded 14 others, according to Niger’s defense ministry. The assault, which involved eight vehicles and over 200 motorbikes, occurred in Banibangou and was blamed on jihadi militants. Government forces reportedly killed dozens of the attackers and launched ongoing land and air searches. For over a decade, Niger and its neighbors have faced insurgencies from extremist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS. After recent military coups, the ruling juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso expelled French forces and aligned with Russian mercenaries. They also formed the Alliance of Sahel States to deepen security cooperation. However, experts warn that violence in the Sahel has only intensified under junta rule, with record levels of militant attacks and rising civilian casualties across the region. Associated PressBBCFrance 24Reuters
At least 10 killed by female suicide bomber in northeast Nigeria. A suicide bombing at a restaurant in Konduga, northeastern Nigeria, killed at least 10 people and injured 30 others, police reported on Saturday. The attack occurred during a heavy downpour late Friday, which allowed the bomber—reportedly a woman—to slip in unnoticed. Other reports suggest 12 people were killed, and that the attack was carried out at a fish market. Konduga lies about 30 kilometers from Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state. No group has claimed responsibility, but the region has long been targeted by Boko Haram and its offshoot, Islamic State West Africa Province. These jihadist groups have waged an insurgency since 2009, seeking to impose their radical version of Islamic law. The conflict has killed around 35,000 people and displaced over 2 million, according to the U.N., with violence spilling into neighboring countries. Despite government promises to improve security, deadly attacks continue to plague Nigeria’s northeast. Associated PressReutersCYBER, TECH & MARKETS
Oil Surges, US Futures Drop After Strikes on Iran: Markets Wrap. Global markets wobbled as traders braced for Iran’s response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites, raising fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East. European stock futures and S&P 500 contracts slipped, while oil prices rose nearly 2% amid concerns about possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields edged higher. Analysts warned markets remain highly sensitive to any military retaliation. Despite recent volatility, U.S. stocks remain close to record highs. Meanwhile, Asian defense and shipping stocks gained, while airlines fell due to rising oil prices. Credit spreads widened in Asia, and major chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung dropped on U.S. regulatory risks. The Federal Reserve's rate outlook diverged among officials, with one expecting cuts by fall. Investors are watching upcoming U.S. and European economic data and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for further direction. Bloomberg
DHS bulletin warns of retaliatory cyber strikes by Iranian hackers against U.S. targets. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued a bulletin warning that Iran-linked hackers and other Tehran-affiliated groups are likely to launch cyberattacks against U.S. targets in response to the U.S. strike on three Iranian nuclear sites. The alert issued by DHS’ National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) states that hacktivists and Iranian government-affiliated actors routinely target poorly secured U.S. networks and internet-connected devices for disruptive cyber attacks. A cybersecurity executive noted in light of Iran's “several highly-capable teams for offensive cyber operations," U.S. entities should heighten alert levels and speed up defensive operations for possible retaliations. A former DHS official said Iranian hackers have favored distributed denial of service attacks — operations that overwhelm targets with bot traffic — against the aerospace, oil, gas and telecommunications sectors. NextGov
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SoftBank CEO discusses $1 trillion Arizona AI-robotics complex with Commerce Secretary. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is promoting a $1 trillion AI and robotics complex in Arizona. The plan, which Son has discussed with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, would establish a free-trade zone and would involve TSMC, the world's largest chip manufacturer. SoftBank officials reportedly also have broached the project with local and federal officials in a bid to obtain tax breaks. Son's idea of an Arizona complex is his largest, most creative proposal following his commitment of $500 billion to the Stargate project designed to expand U.S. data centers and AI infrastructure with partners OpenAI, Oracle, and Abu Dhabi's MGX. Financial TimesBloomberg
Senate parliamentarian clears way for federal moratorium on state AI laws to proceed. The U.S. Senate parliamentarian determined on Saturday that a proposed 10-year federal moratorium on enforcing state AI legislation passes the procedural Byrd Rule and will remain in the budget bill. The ruling shields the moratorium provision from a filibuster hurdle, allowing it to proceed through the budget reconciliation process with a simple majority vote. If signed into law, the moratorium would represent a significant expansion of federal authority on state technology policies. Republicans on the Senate Commerce Committee linked a $42 billion allocation for the Broadband Equity and Access Deployment (BEAD) program to the moratorium. Democrats generally have opposed the moratorium and have been joined by several Republicans who have expressed reservations, including Sens. Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, John Cornyn, Marsha Blackburn, and Ron Johnson. Tech Policy
Canadian cyber agency alleges Chinese hackers attacking telecommunications networks. According to the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security (CCCS), Chinese-supported hackers probably are involved in recent malicious activity that targeted domestic telecommunications infrastructure. The CCCS disclosure indicated that three network devices registered to a Canadian company were compromised in the attacks. In the bulletin released on Friday, the CCCS and the FBI advised Canadian organizations to harden their networks against Salt Typhoon operations, which have been carried out by a group with ties to the Chinese government. The Canadian agency said hackers "almost certainly" will persist in efforts to infiltrate Canadian entities in the next two years. Bloomberg
Commerce reportedly considering revoking foreign chipmakers’ use of U.S. tech in China. Jeffrey Kessler, who leads the Commerce Department Bureau of Industry and Security, reportedly has informed one Taiwanese and two South semiconductor firms that he would like to cancel the waivers granted to the chipmakers to use U.S. technology in their China-based operations. Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC have been provided blanket waivers by the U.S. that permits them to ship U.S. chip-making gear to China without applying for licenses. The U.S. action under consideration would make the licensing system for chip equipment similar to what China has in place for rare-earth materials. If new licensing procedures are implemented, foreign chipmakers probably would request case-by-case licenses from the U.S. government to supply their Chinese factories and possibly explore replacing U.S. equipment with alternatives from Japan and Europe. Wall Street JournalReuters
South Korean official to raise U.S. change in China-based chipmaking rules in ongoing trade talks. South Korea's top trade negotiator, Yeo Han-koo, reportedly will raise concerns about possible U.S. restrictions on foreign chipmakers operating in China. Yeo is said to be ready to open the topic when he meets with U.S. officials in the third round of technical discussions on tariffs in Washington this week. In the first round of talks in April, the two sides agreed to develop a trade deal for reducing tariffs by July 8. Yeo said, however, that U.S. political and economic uncertainties may push talks beyond the July deadline. While in Washington, Yeo also will consult with White House and congressional officials on a variety of trade issues, including the U.S. request that South Korea loosen curbs on U.S. beef exports. Reuters
France announces $826 million investment in Eutelsat to boost competition with Starlink. France plans to invest $826 million in Eutelsat, the Paris-based satellite operator that proposes to be a European competitor to Elon Musk's Starlink. The French economy minister described the plan as a reflection of Europe's intent "to make satellite connectivity a strategic lever for digital and industrial sovereignty" for France and the continent. Eutelsat merged with Britain's OneWeb in 2023 to become the second-largest low-Earth-orbit (LEO) constellation in the world following Starlink. The firm currently manages a constellation of about 650 LEO satellites. The European Commission last year signed signed a $12.2 billion agreement with the SpaceRISE consortium to create one of the largest European space infrastructure projects, which plans to be launched in early 2030. Cybernews
Aflac latest firm to be hit by cyberattack in campaign targeting insurance sector. Aflac, a Georgia-based insurance company, has been targeted by a cyberattack, the third insurance firm to report a network intrusion in the last two weeks. Google's threat intelligence unit warned recently that the cybercrime collective known as Scattered Spider has turned to the insurance sector as a new target. Aflac said it identified unauthorized access on its network on June 12 and said it believes it was able to contain the intrusion "within hours." Erie Insurance, Philadelphia Insurance Companies, and Aflac have been hit in a string of hacking attacks that began June 7. Network outages and business system disruptions were reported as a result of the attacks. Aflac has not identified Scattered Spider as the threat actor, but observers say the attack patterns are consistent with the cybercrime group. CyberScoopCybernewsREPORT INFO
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