The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit on Thursday comes at a pivotal time as conflicts roil the region, and the United States faces an increasingly fractious relationship with its Gulf allies.
In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, President Barack Obama will meet with leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for an agenda expected to be dominated by counterterrorism and security. What issues will Obama prioritize as he seeks to recalibrate rocky relationships, control his legacy, and also focus on key defense issues?
With crises in Syria and Yemen at the forefront, and the U.S. calling for more engagement to fight ISIS, Obama and GCC members will zero in on bolstering defense and cooperating on these regional flashpoints.
But there’s shaky ground, as the Gulf states seek reassurances from the U.S. in the wake of the nuclear agreement with Iran and Obama’s recent complaint to The Atlantic characterizing some of them as “free riders.” For Saudi Arabia, a Senate bill that would allow U.S. citizens to sue the country over the 9/11 attacks—15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens—has also been a serious point of contention, with the foreign minister saying the kingdom would sell off billions in American assets if Congress passes it. Although the bill still has wide bipartisan support, there’s been slight progress on that front: The White House has strongly opposed the bill, and on Tuesday, as several leading Republicans in Congress openly questioned the legislation, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina placed a hold on it.
Along with these simmering tensions, there’s plenty to discuss on oil, the economy, human rights, and the political uncertainty in the U.S. given this year’s presidential election.
This is likely Obama’s final trip to the region while in office, after all, and observers expect the President to take his legacy into account. He’s apt to do this by pushing to smooth over concerns with the Iranian nuclear agreement and working to reaffirm the significance of the United States’ relationship with GCC countries. But he also might raise the issue of human rights in a more forceful way than he has before.
“The GCC and the US relations have been under increased scrutiny in the last few years and most recently, the interview that President Obama gave to The Atlantic generated more pressure to this partnership. Naming them ‘free riders’ was not well-received in the region,” Mihai Patru, a senior fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, said. “There is no doubt that this meeting on Thursday is very crucial for recalibrating this partnership in a way that reflects what is happening in the region, but also the interests of the partners.”
In many ways, the meeting will serve to be “just a show of support, an iconic show of support that the efforts on fighting terrorism will continue,” according to Hala Aldosari a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
“The whole idea of the GCC-U.S. relationship was mainly built on economic interests. And this is what was seen from the response of the GCC leaders to Obama’s comments on the ‘free riders.’ We have seen those officials remind the U.S. of the economic contribution,” she said. “They still see collaboration and the relationship in terms of money and economic interactions. To some extent, that will continue. But it is not the main drive, which is to obtain intelligence and to be able to collect information (for) the counterterrorism effort.”
Matar Ebrahim Matar, a former member of the Bahraini Parliament, said the U.S. needs to show it is ready to make some sacrifices as it pushes the Gulf states for more involvement in the fight against ISIS.
“This approach of fighting ISIS will not lead for a solution,” he said. “We need a new strategy to address these problems. And of course, new strategies will not come in a visit. These strategies need to be built up and the U.S. needs to be clear about what they are ready to compromise on when it comes to the region. They are getting a lot.” He added, “If the U.S. is not ready to give any compromise, not ready to take any cost, we are going to nowhere.”
Defense Secretary Ash Carter, who is also in Riyadh, has been meeting with his Gulf counterparts to help lay the groundwork for the GCC meeting. According to Pentagon readouts, Carter’s meetings have been focused on strengthening security partnerships, cooperating on counterterrorism, and checking Iran’s destabilizing activities. There was also discussion with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman about bolstering cyber defenses, enhancing training for special operations, and counterterrorism forces and integrating air and missile defense systems.
During a joint press conference on Wednesday with GCC Secretary General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Carter spoke highly of the military efforts by GCC countries to combat ISIS — but he also pushed for even more engagement from the nations in the fight.
But there’s a feeling among some that the United States’ sway at Thursday’s meeting is lacking this election year.
Brian Dooley, Director of Human Rights Defenders at Human Rights First, said “you get a sense, certainly, that the GCC leaders are sitting out the last six or eight months of this presidency — as time goes on, more and more happily.”
“If you’re looking at the U.S.-GCC relationship, how is the U.S. end of that going to look like this time next year? And if there’s a Trump presidency, who knows?” Dooley asked. “Who can predict how that’s going to be in all sorts of ways, but not least how a Trump presidency would interact with the GCC. And if there is going to be this annual GCC summit, if there’s a President Trump or perhaps a President Cruz next year leading the U.S. side of that, how’s that going to affect the GCC dynamic? That already matters in terms of this week.”
Several observers said they hope that human rights emerge as a prominent topic of discussion. With this possibly being Obama’s last chance for face-to-face talks with the leaders, will he engage on contentious issues like the treatment of political dissidents, the state of women’s rights, or how the Sunni-dominated countries deal with their Shiite populations, for instance?
András Simonyi, managing director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations and a former Hungarian ambassador to the United States, said it’s key that the president not leave the meeting saying that human rights abuses did not come up.
“He cannot do that. I’m not going to say what the format is or should be, I’m not going to say whether this should be public or closed session, but I think when the President of the United States talks to his counterparts in the region, he should be blunt and clear about the United States caring about human rights, about the situation of women, about LGBT rights, about abuses against those who stand for freedom and human rights,” Simonyi said at a Center for Translatlantic Relations event on Tuesday.
Dooley agreed, saying that although he doesn’t expect “any massive fireworks or public disputes,” human rights should have a more prominent profile than in previous meetings or trips, because Obama is on the way out. And according to Dooley, human rights advocates should look for three specific things in this meeting to assess Obama’s performance: Whether the president meets with some political dissidents, names some of the political prisoners rather than just give a broad sweeping statement, and makes sure to raise the issue of human rights abuses in the entire Gulf region, not just Saudi Arabia.
“If he comes away again with just wishy-washy or muted criticism, or says that it didn’t really come up, then that would be an embarrassing failure,” Dooley said.
Mackenzie Weinger is a National Security Reporter at The Cipher Brief.
